Here is my seventh edition of my 2016 NBA Mock Draft.
1. Philadelphia 76ers- Ben Simmons, Power Forward, LSU: With their hodge podge of big men and Simmons with star potential with his ball handling and passing, he’s an obvious choice even as some executives favor Ingram for his shooting. Simmons isn’t a good shooter.
2. Los Angeles Lakers- Brandon Ingram, Small Forward, Duke: The Lakers needed a little bit of luck, and got it here. Not only were they able to keep the selection (it was top-three protected) and end up with the No. 2 pick in a two-player draft, but they're also in line to grab a guy whose skills perfectly complement the other pieces they already have. LA is still a long way away from competing for titles, but Ingram and D'Angelo Russell are good pieces to build around.
3. Boston Celtics- Dragan Bender, Power Forward/Center, Croatia: For all the talk about the possibility of the 76ers making trades, the Celtics are probably the best candidate of all as a team pushing to get in position for a long playoff run now. Veterans are more appealing than prospects. If they stay, though, the need for shooting, especially behind the arc, puts Buddy Hield in the mix for the top three. But some teams think Bender has a chance to be great and one GM said he could see the Croatian becoming the best player in the draft in time. Bender is not another Kristaps Porzingis no matter how many people want to make the comparison -- Bender is a better distributor, Porzingis has better range -- but the offense is very intriguing.
4. Phoenix Suns- Marquese Chriss, Power Forward, Washington: Like Boston, Phoenix also has multiple first-round picks, and may consider a deal here for the right player, but if not, getting a power forward who can stretch the floor could be a priority. Chriss is still somewhat raw skill-wise, and he doesn’t quite understand the game yet, but he is a high-level athlete who can run the floor, block shots, and knock down jumpers. He could turn into a good starter down the road.
5. Minnesota Tinberwolves- Kris Dunn, Point Guard, Providence: With Tom Thibodeau in town, it's relatively easy to see why he would like a player like Kris Dunn. Dunn is about as good a defensive player as you'll find, plus is quite good offensively with great vision and athleticism. Yeah, he does overlap a bit with Ricky Rubio. But you need more than two guards in the rotation, and right now there's just not another trustworthy guy on the roster. Also, the Wolves could theoretically look to extract value for an excellent piece in Rubio.
6. New Orleans Pelicans- Jamal Murray, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, Kentucky: The Pelicans’ backcourt is unsettled at the moment, with a dozen different players earning a starting nod at one point or another over the course of the season. Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holliday have all struggled with injuries and none is under contract past next season, which means New Orleans will look at all of the top guards available. Murray was one of the most prolific scorers in college basketball despite being a freshman.
7. Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks)- Buddy Hield, Shooting Guard, Oklahoma: One of the stars of the college game in 2015-16, Hield is a versatile and explosive threat who can score in transition or as a catch-and-shoot guy in half-court sets. He gets to the rim and creates on the perimeter, with the added benefit of four seasons in a major program and being 22 years old. In short, Hield will be one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft. And the Nuggets finished 26th in 3-point percentage.
8. Sacramento Kings- Domantas Sabonis, Power Forward/Center, Gonzaga: The Kings are in need of a power forward and while there may be a few players that offer more upside, for a team under pressure to produce (Sam Hinkie fleeced them out of a number of future picks), Sabonis makes perfect sense as a guy that can be an instant contributor. His emotional leadership is a big bonus. Vlade is said to love the kid, and happens to be friends with his dad (Arvydas).
9. Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets)- Jakob Poeltl, Power Forward/Center, Utah: The Raptors will likely lose Bismack Biyombo to free agency this offseason, meaning Poeltl makes sense as a backup to start with for Jonas Valanciunas. They would probably like to take a stretch-four or potentially a wing in order to brace for if DeMar DeRozan leaves, but Poeltl is the best player remaining on the board and definitely fills a spot of need as the Raptors look to likely rebound next year back into the conference finals.
10. Milwaukee Bucks- Jaylen Brown, Small Forward, California: Milwaukee is sitting on a pretty good spot to grab whichever player drops. They could easily land a player here that ends up as good as whomever goes third. As a matter of fact, there are reports that Brown or Marquese Chriss could go at 3. And either player could possibly fall to 10 as well. Chriss may ultimately prove too big a long-term play but they would likely be ecstatic to land him.
11. Orlando Magic- Skal Labissiere, Power Forward/Center, Kentucky: Despite Labissiere's disappointing freshman season at Kentucky, his two skill sets – shot blocking and perimeter shooting – would be a nice fit next to Nikola Vucevic, even if he might be a bit risky.
12. Utah Jazz- Timothe Luwawu, Shooting Guard, France: Luwawu made his big move last year playing in his native France, then built on that in 2015-16 against tougher competition with a varied offensive game of scoring and passing. His size would be an asset in the backcourt, with enough athleticism that he won't be a liability on defense against smaller, quicker shooting guards. With little experience before this season other than the lesser French leagues, not even as part of the national teams at a junior level, he has had to ease concerns about the jump in competition.
13. Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards)- Furkan Korkmaz, Shooting Guard, Turkey: Korkmaz is a pretty highly skilled player that is also one of the youngest players in the draft. He's a good athlete that particularly can get up and throw down, but isn't the best in terms of creating offense for himself at this stage due to a rudimentary dribble. Still, he'd be big enough to pair with Devin Booker on the wing, and would really continue to combine with Bender to provide floor-spacing for their guards. This is a really interesting call here, as none of the players in this area of the draft fully fit the Suns.
14. Chicago Bulls- Deyonta Davis, Power Forward, Michigan State: Davis didn't work out for any teams outside the top 10, so there's a chance he goes 9 or 10. But if he slides some the Bulls could see value in his upside and take him here.
15. Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets)- Henry Ellenson, Power Forward, Marquette: A perimeter shooting threat, especially from a front court position, would help open up driving lanes for Emmanuel Mudiay. Ellenson has the chance to develop into that, while also contributing on the glass.
16. Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks)- Denzel Valentine, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Michigan State: The important part of the Final Four team in 2014-15 had a nice climb up draft boards last season with more experience and a larger role for an elite program. He could easily break into the lottery and maybe even the top 12. Valentine earned the centerpiece spot at Michigan State as a 22-year-old senior who is smart and versatile. He shot 44.4 percent behind the arc and also easily leading the team in assists, a testament to his ability to become a secondary ball handler in the pros as well as score.
17. Memphis Grizzlies- Wade Baldwin IV, Point Guard, Vanderbilt: Mike Conley potentially bolting in free agency, the Grizzlies will probably be looking for a point guard at their pick. While we view him as a bit of a reach here, he would offer a solid upside player at a posiiton of need.
18. Detroit Pistons- Damian Jones, Center, Vanderbilt: Detroit needs offense in general and especially 3-point threats, but there is no obvious answer here in the land of backup big men. Jones turns 21 the week after the draft, is more developed than many others in the class and could play behind Andre Drummond. Jones has NBA size and athleticism, the makings of being able to play up in an up-tempo system or a power game and become a shot blocker. The offense needs work.
19. Denver Nuggets (via Portland Trail Blazers)- Ivica Zubac, Center, Croatia: Zubac is a 7-foot-1 big man that many believe could have terrific potential in the pick-and-roll offensively and as a traditional paint defender defensively. He may or may not come over immediately.
20. Indiana Pacers- Demeatrius Jackson, Point Guard, Notre Dame: Indiana could use a point guard and that would make George Hill expandable. Jackson has speed to play in the open court, leaping ability to play above the rim and a quick first step to create an opening. The physical advantages are especially important because he does have great size. He gives Notre Dame the chance to send a point guard into the first round for the second year in a row (after Jerian Grant went 19th last June).
21. Atlanta Hawks- Cheick Diallo, Center, Kansas: Cheick is one of the players that Atlanta is said to be very high on. He may take a while to see the floor, but as he showed at the NBA combine, his length and motor gives him a lot of intrigue. If Atlanta is convinced that Al Horford will leave in free agency, they could target a more ready player such as Damian Jones or Diamond Stone.
22. Charlotte Hornets- Malik Beasley, Shooting Guard, Florida State: Improved perimeter shooting is a big part of Charlotte’s recent success, but Nic Batum and Courtney Lee both upcoming free agents, they could look to replenish some of their perimeter depth with younger, cheaper options. Beasley shot 38.7% from three-point range as a freshman for Florida State.
23. Boston Celtics- Brice Johnson, Power Forward, North Carolina: Johnson is a guy who probably ends up in the early 20s and is a great value here. While he's a senior, he's one of the draft's premiere athletes. Boston has shown a solid ability to find talent later in the draft with players such as Jae Crowder in the second round. Johnson gets a late-lottery value, but his lack of strength and age have knocked him down a lot of team's boards.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami Heat via Cleveland Cavaliers)- Stephen Zimmerman, Center, UCLA: Zimmerman is well liked by the Sixers and would provide solid depth to the frontcourt, particularly in the event of an Okafor trade. Some feel he may end up in the 15-20 range however.
25. Los Angeles Clippers- DeAndre' Bembry, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Saint Joseph's: Bembry would be the kind of wing that would really help a team that's contending early in his career. He's tough, he's smart, he competes, and he plays well within an offensive scheme. He needs to do a lot still in terms of proving himself as a shooter, but Bembry could easily become an excellent fit in between J.J. Redick and Blake Griffin if the team decides to not make any moves this offseason in terms of its core.
26. Philadelphia 76ers (from Oklahoma City Thunder via Cleveland Cavaliers/Denver Nuggets)- Malachi Richardson, Shooting Guard, Syracuse: The Sixers could use more guard and wings and Richardson would be an interesting fit.
27. Toronto Raptors- Thon Maker, Power Forward/Center, Australia: Toronto likes length and athleticism and with International GM Masai Ujiri, Thon has both the African and Canadian connection. Maker could end up going higher, but his lack of experience and readiness might limit his draft ceiling. If Thon can add good weight and his legs hold up, he could end up being a steal at the end of the first round.
28. Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland Cavaliers via Boston Celtics)- Juan Hernangomez, Power Forward, Spain: This is Phoenix’s third pick in the first round, and I would expect them to take a player they can leave overseas for a bit longer. Hernangomez is a skilled power forward, with the ability to step away from the rim a bit, and he has played a good amount of minutes overseas already. He could be ready to come over in a year or two at the rate he is developing.
29. San Antonio Spurs- Ante Zizic, Center, Coratia: Zizic is just the type of mobile, shot blocking, pick and roll big man that many want in today’s NBA, and would provide more depth to San Antonio's front court.
30. Golden State Warriors- Malcolm Brogdon, Shooting Guard, Virginia: With Harrison Barnes about to get very expensive, Brogdon’s combination of experience, defensive ability, and ability to navigate screens off the ball and shoot from the perimeter could help him contribute right away for the Warriors.
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Monday, June 20, 2016
2016 NBA Mock Draft: 6th Edition
Here is my sixth edition of my 2016 NBA Mock Draft.
1. Philadelphia 76ers- Ben Simmons, Power Forward, LSU: With their hodge podge of big men and Simmons with star potential with his ball handling and passing, he’s an obvious choice even as some executives favor Ingram for his shooting. Simmons isn’t a good shooter.
2. Los Angeles Lakers- Brandon Ingram, Small Forward, Duke: The Lakers needed a little bit of luck, and got it here. Not only were they able to keep the selection (it was top-three protected) and end up with the No. 2 pick in a two-player draft, but they're also in line to grab a guy whose skills perfectly complement the other pieces they already have. LA is still a long way away from competing for titles, but Ingram and D'Angelo Russell are good pieces to build around.
3. Boston Celtics- Dragan Bender, Power Forward/Center, Croatia: For all the talk about the possibility of the 76ers making trades, the Celtics are probably the best candidate of all as a team pushing to get in position for a long playoff run now. Veterans are more appealing than prospects. If they stay, though, the need for shooting, especially behind the arc, puts Buddy Hield in the mix for the top three. But some teams think Bender has a chance to be great and one GM said he could see the Croatian becoming the best player in the draft in time. Bender is not another Kristaps Porzingis no matter how many people want to make the comparison -- Bender is a better distributor, Porzingis has better range -- but the offense is very intriguing.
4. Phoenix Suns- Marquese Chriss, Power Forward, Washington: Like Boston, Phoenix also has multiple first-round picks, and may consider a deal here for the right player, but if not, getting a power forward who can stretch the floor could be a priority. Chriss is still somewhat raw skill-wise, and he doesn’t quite understand the game yet, but he is a high-level athlete who can run the floor, block shots, and knock down jumpers. He could turn into a good starter down the road.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves- Kris Dunn, Point Guard, Providence: With Tom Thibodeau in town, it's relatively easy to see why he would like a player like Kris Dunn. Dunn is about as good a defensive player as you'll find, plus is quite good offensively with great vision and athleticism. Yeah, he does overlap a bit with Ricky Rubio. But you need more than two guards in the rotation, and right now there's just not another trustworthy guy on the roster. Also, the Wolves could theoretically look to extract value for an excellent piece in Rubio.
6. New Orleans Pelicans- Jamal Murray, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, Kentucky: The Pelicans’ backcourt is unsettled at the moment, with a dozen different players earning a starting nod at one point or another over the course of the season. Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holliday have all struggled with injuries and none is under contract past next season, which means New Orleans will look at all of the top guards available. Murray was one of the most prolific scorers in college basketball despite being a freshman.
7. Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks)- Buddy Hield, Shooting Guard, Oklahoma: One of the stars of the college game in 2015-16, Hield is a versatile and explosive threat who can score in transition or as a catch-and-shoot guy in half-court sets. He gets to the rim and creates on the perimeter, with the added benefit of four seasons in a major program and being 22 years old. In short, Hield will be one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft. And the Nuggets finished 26th in 3-point percentage.
8. Sacramento Kings- Jalen Brown, Small Forward, California: Sacramento is lining up possibilities to trade down if each of their three or four realistic targets are off the board, but there is very little chance all will be gone. The Kings will likely spend No. 8, not deal it, if Brown -- or Hield, Murray or Dunn in the backcourt -- are still available. The Brown outcome would lead management to consider a Rudy Gay trade later in the offseason, if not outright putting Gay on the trade block with a successor in place.
9. Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets)- Jakob Poeltl, Power Forward/Center, Utah: The Raptors will likely lose Bismack Biyombo to free agency this offseason, meaning Poeltl makes sense as a backup to start with for Jonas Valanciunas. They would probably like to take a stretch-four or potentially a wing in order to brace for if DeMar DeRozan leaves, but Poeltl is the best player remaining on the board and definitely fills a spot of need as the Raptors look to likely rebound next year back into the conference finals.
10. Milwaukee Bucks- Deyonta Davis, Power Forward, Michigan State: The Bucks tend to like long athletic players with a high upside, and Davis fits that billing. The 6-10 big man is a good defensive player already due to his ability to move his feet and protect the rim, plus he has potential shooting the ball out to around 15 to 18 feet at some point in his career. Davis still has a way's to go, but at the very least he'd give their frontcourt a bit of a different look, especially if they're seriously going to try the Point Giannis experiment.
11. Orlando Magic- Skal Labissiere, Power Forward/Center, Kentucky: Despite Labissiere's disappointing freshman season at Kentucky, his two skill sets – shot blocking and perimeter shooting – would be a nice fit next to Nikola Vucevic, even if he might be a bit risky.
12. Utah Jazz- Henry Ellenson, Power Forward/Center, Marquette: Ellenson is a big man with mobility to handle an up-tempo system and strength to play physical, a versatility on offense in particular that would fit well as a counter to the defense of the starting center, Rudy Gobert. Utah, improving on defense, would be making gains on offense by adding Ellenson's shooting after Trey Lyles and Rodney Hood in previous drafts.
13. Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards)- Timothe Luwawu, Shooting Guard, France: Luwawu made his big move last year playing in his native France, then built on that in 2015-16 against tougher competition with a varied offensive game of scoring and passing. His size would be an asset in the backcourt, with enough athleticism that he won't be a liability on defense against smaller, quicker shooting guards. With little experience before this season other than the lesser French leagues, not even as part of the national teams at a junior level, he has had to ease concerns about the jump in competition.
14. Chicago Bulls- Furkan Korkmaz, Shooting Guard, Turkey: Korkmaz is a scoring threat beyond the 3-point line and also a talented and willing passer, a nice combination for someone with good size for a shooting guard with the chance to keep growing. He needs to add bulk more than height, but is still only 18 and could fill out in time. And if he doesn't get stronger, Korkmaz could still make a big contribution as a shooter and facilitator.
15. Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets)- Domantas Sabonis, Power Forward/Center, Gonzaga: The son of Hall of Famer Arvydas Sabonis, a superstar in Europe before seven seasons with the Trail Blazers, was an intriguing prospect a year ago, in the same lottery territory as 2016, before returning for his sophomore season. Domantas moves well for a big and plays hard, a combination that produces good results on the boards. He does not have much of an offensive game, especially beyond close range.
16. Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks)- Denzel Valentine, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Michigan State: The important part of the Final Four team in 2014-15 had a nice climb up draft boards last season with more experience and a larger role for an elite program. He could easily break into the lottery and maybe even the top 12. Valentine earned the centerpiece spot at Michigan State as a 22-year-old senior who is smart and versatile. He shot 44.4 percent behind the arc and also easily leading the team in assists, a testament to his ability to become a secondary ball handler in the pros as well as score.
17. Memphis Grizzlies- Demeatrius Jackson, Point Guard, Notre Dame: Memphis needs depth at point guard even if Mike Conley re-signs. Jackson has speed to play in the open court, leaping ability to play above the rim and a quick first step to create an opening. The physical advantages are especially important because he does have great size. He gives Notre Dame the chance to send a point guard into the first round for the second year in a row (after Jerian Grant went 19th last June).
18. Detroit Pistons- Damian Jones, Center, Vanderbilt: Detroit needs offense in general and especially 3-point threats, but there is no obvious answer here in the land of backup big men. Jones turns 21 the week after the draft, is more developed than many others in the class and could play behind Andre Drummond. Jones has NBA size and athleticism, the makings of being able to play up in an up-tempo system or a power game and become a shot blocker. The offense needs work.
19. Denver Nuggets (via Portland Trail Blazers)- Ivica Zubac, Center, Croatia: Zubac is a 7-foot-1 big man that many believe could have terrific potential in the pick-and-roll offensively and as a traditional paint defender defensively. He may or may not come over immediately.
20. Indiana Pacers- Wade Baldwin IV, Point Guard, Vanderbilt: The improbable rise from under-the-radar college recruit to the Southeastern Conference All-Freshman team has taken him all the way to the edge of the lottery, and possibly into the top 14 with good workouts, after the sophomore campaign. He is a fiery, emotional leader who tries to take control, even as a freshman. With the extra attention from defenses, though, he went from 43.9 percent overall to 42.7 and from 43.9 percent behind the arc to 40.6.
21. Atlanta Hawks- Taurean Prince, Small Forward, Baylor: The Hawks really missed the toughness and versatility DeMarre Carroll brought to both forward spots, which could cause them to take a long look at Prince. He is a tough, perimeter-oriented combo forward who has an NBA-ready frame and can have a valuable role in today’s style of play with his ability to stretch the floor.
22. Charlotte Hornets- Ante Zizic, Center, Coratia: A high-energy player with nice athleticism for a big, he runs the floor well and handles the contact of playing inside. His offensive game is still limited, though. Zizic is 19, making him an ideal draft-and-stash pick for the end of the first round. With his intensity and with time, he could become a contributor for an NBA team.
23. Boston Celtics- Cheick Diallo, Center, Kansas: The Mali native who attended high school in New York state had a very choppy freshman season at Kansas, from missing two exhibitions and five games as the NCAA sorted through eligibility issues to undependable play once he was cleared. There were stretches when just staying on the court was a challenge, and he averaged 7.5 minutes. But athleticism, size and potential on defense makes him a very intriguing prospect. While it would not be a surprise if he dropped out of the first round, some team will be lured by the physical tools to invest intensive coaching and a lot of D-League time -- more likely a team making its third pick.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami Heat via Cleveland Cavaliers)- Dejounte Murray, Point Guard, Washington: Do I think there's any situation on planet Earth where I would select Murray over Kentucky point guard Tyler Ulis? No, I don't. But it's a pretty distinct possibility in the draft where Murray is seen as a solid potential guard who can really score it and pass well. However, he's still inefficient, can't shoot, can't finish around the rim, and makes poor decisions. There would be upside, but he has a ways to go to reach it.
25. Los Angeles Clippers- DeAndre' Bembry, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Saint Joseph's: Bembry would be the kind of wing that would really help a team that's contending early in his career. He's tough, he's smart, he competes, and he plays well within an offensive scheme. He needs to do a lot still in terms of proving himself as a shooter, but Bembry could easily become an excellent fit in between J.J. Redick and Blake Griffin if the team decides to not make any moves this offseason in terms of its core.
26. Philadelphia 76ers (from Oklahoma City Thunder via Cleveland Cavaliers/Denver Nuggets)- Malik Beasley, Shooting Guard, Florida State: With their third pick in the first round, Philadelphia could look to shore up one of their real needs, perimeter shooting. Beasley showed a consistent stroke and NBA-range as a freshman at Florida State, and is even a bit more versatile on offense than just a shooter.
27. Toronto Raptors- Diamond Stone, Power Forward/Center, Maryland: Again, size and athleticism are the Raptors' need and calling card, respectively, and Stone has both in spades. While he didn't have the season many expected at Maryland, the Raptors have the team and infrastructure in place to let Stone take his time, and hopefully develop into the player he's capable of becoming.
28. Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland Cavaliers via Boston Celtics)- Juan Hernangomez, Power Forward, Spain: This is Phoenix’s third pick in the first round, and I would expect them to take a player they can leave overseas for a bit longer. Hernangomez is a skilled power forward, with the ability to step away from the rim a bit, and he has played a good amount of minutes overseas already. He could be ready to come over in a year or two at the rate he is developing.
29. San Antonio Spurs- Brice Johnson, Power Forward, North Carolina: With Tim Duncan's future still up in the air, Johnson can at least add some athleticism to the frontcourt. While not the most skilled offensive player, he has improved a lot over the past few years, and his ability to run the floor and rebound could make him a very good value this low in the first round.
30. Golden State Warriors- Zhou Qi, Center, China: Zhou said he can make a smooth transition to the United States even if it is not in a city with a large Chinese population, so ending up in the Bay Area would simply be a bonus. Similarly, it would not be a marketing move by the Warriors. (Like they need one.) Zhou has to bulk up, but someone will probably invest a weightlifting regiment and patience near the end of the first round or the start of the second for a 7-2 prospect with agility. Golden State is looking for cap flexibility heading into free agency, increasing the chances of picking a player to stay overseas.
1. Philadelphia 76ers- Ben Simmons, Power Forward, LSU: With their hodge podge of big men and Simmons with star potential with his ball handling and passing, he’s an obvious choice even as some executives favor Ingram for his shooting. Simmons isn’t a good shooter.
2. Los Angeles Lakers- Brandon Ingram, Small Forward, Duke: The Lakers needed a little bit of luck, and got it here. Not only were they able to keep the selection (it was top-three protected) and end up with the No. 2 pick in a two-player draft, but they're also in line to grab a guy whose skills perfectly complement the other pieces they already have. LA is still a long way away from competing for titles, but Ingram and D'Angelo Russell are good pieces to build around.
3. Boston Celtics- Dragan Bender, Power Forward/Center, Croatia: For all the talk about the possibility of the 76ers making trades, the Celtics are probably the best candidate of all as a team pushing to get in position for a long playoff run now. Veterans are more appealing than prospects. If they stay, though, the need for shooting, especially behind the arc, puts Buddy Hield in the mix for the top three. But some teams think Bender has a chance to be great and one GM said he could see the Croatian becoming the best player in the draft in time. Bender is not another Kristaps Porzingis no matter how many people want to make the comparison -- Bender is a better distributor, Porzingis has better range -- but the offense is very intriguing.
4. Phoenix Suns- Marquese Chriss, Power Forward, Washington: Like Boston, Phoenix also has multiple first-round picks, and may consider a deal here for the right player, but if not, getting a power forward who can stretch the floor could be a priority. Chriss is still somewhat raw skill-wise, and he doesn’t quite understand the game yet, but he is a high-level athlete who can run the floor, block shots, and knock down jumpers. He could turn into a good starter down the road.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves- Kris Dunn, Point Guard, Providence: With Tom Thibodeau in town, it's relatively easy to see why he would like a player like Kris Dunn. Dunn is about as good a defensive player as you'll find, plus is quite good offensively with great vision and athleticism. Yeah, he does overlap a bit with Ricky Rubio. But you need more than two guards in the rotation, and right now there's just not another trustworthy guy on the roster. Also, the Wolves could theoretically look to extract value for an excellent piece in Rubio.
6. New Orleans Pelicans- Jamal Murray, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, Kentucky: The Pelicans’ backcourt is unsettled at the moment, with a dozen different players earning a starting nod at one point or another over the course of the season. Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holliday have all struggled with injuries and none is under contract past next season, which means New Orleans will look at all of the top guards available. Murray was one of the most prolific scorers in college basketball despite being a freshman.
7. Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks)- Buddy Hield, Shooting Guard, Oklahoma: One of the stars of the college game in 2015-16, Hield is a versatile and explosive threat who can score in transition or as a catch-and-shoot guy in half-court sets. He gets to the rim and creates on the perimeter, with the added benefit of four seasons in a major program and being 22 years old. In short, Hield will be one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft. And the Nuggets finished 26th in 3-point percentage.
8. Sacramento Kings- Jalen Brown, Small Forward, California: Sacramento is lining up possibilities to trade down if each of their three or four realistic targets are off the board, but there is very little chance all will be gone. The Kings will likely spend No. 8, not deal it, if Brown -- or Hield, Murray or Dunn in the backcourt -- are still available. The Brown outcome would lead management to consider a Rudy Gay trade later in the offseason, if not outright putting Gay on the trade block with a successor in place.
9. Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets)- Jakob Poeltl, Power Forward/Center, Utah: The Raptors will likely lose Bismack Biyombo to free agency this offseason, meaning Poeltl makes sense as a backup to start with for Jonas Valanciunas. They would probably like to take a stretch-four or potentially a wing in order to brace for if DeMar DeRozan leaves, but Poeltl is the best player remaining on the board and definitely fills a spot of need as the Raptors look to likely rebound next year back into the conference finals.
10. Milwaukee Bucks- Deyonta Davis, Power Forward, Michigan State: The Bucks tend to like long athletic players with a high upside, and Davis fits that billing. The 6-10 big man is a good defensive player already due to his ability to move his feet and protect the rim, plus he has potential shooting the ball out to around 15 to 18 feet at some point in his career. Davis still has a way's to go, but at the very least he'd give their frontcourt a bit of a different look, especially if they're seriously going to try the Point Giannis experiment.
11. Orlando Magic- Skal Labissiere, Power Forward/Center, Kentucky: Despite Labissiere's disappointing freshman season at Kentucky, his two skill sets – shot blocking and perimeter shooting – would be a nice fit next to Nikola Vucevic, even if he might be a bit risky.
12. Utah Jazz- Henry Ellenson, Power Forward/Center, Marquette: Ellenson is a big man with mobility to handle an up-tempo system and strength to play physical, a versatility on offense in particular that would fit well as a counter to the defense of the starting center, Rudy Gobert. Utah, improving on defense, would be making gains on offense by adding Ellenson's shooting after Trey Lyles and Rodney Hood in previous drafts.
13. Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards)- Timothe Luwawu, Shooting Guard, France: Luwawu made his big move last year playing in his native France, then built on that in 2015-16 against tougher competition with a varied offensive game of scoring and passing. His size would be an asset in the backcourt, with enough athleticism that he won't be a liability on defense against smaller, quicker shooting guards. With little experience before this season other than the lesser French leagues, not even as part of the national teams at a junior level, he has had to ease concerns about the jump in competition.
14. Chicago Bulls- Furkan Korkmaz, Shooting Guard, Turkey: Korkmaz is a scoring threat beyond the 3-point line and also a talented and willing passer, a nice combination for someone with good size for a shooting guard with the chance to keep growing. He needs to add bulk more than height, but is still only 18 and could fill out in time. And if he doesn't get stronger, Korkmaz could still make a big contribution as a shooter and facilitator.
15. Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets)- Domantas Sabonis, Power Forward/Center, Gonzaga: The son of Hall of Famer Arvydas Sabonis, a superstar in Europe before seven seasons with the Trail Blazers, was an intriguing prospect a year ago, in the same lottery territory as 2016, before returning for his sophomore season. Domantas moves well for a big and plays hard, a combination that produces good results on the boards. He does not have much of an offensive game, especially beyond close range.
16. Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks)- Denzel Valentine, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Michigan State: The important part of the Final Four team in 2014-15 had a nice climb up draft boards last season with more experience and a larger role for an elite program. He could easily break into the lottery and maybe even the top 12. Valentine earned the centerpiece spot at Michigan State as a 22-year-old senior who is smart and versatile. He shot 44.4 percent behind the arc and also easily leading the team in assists, a testament to his ability to become a secondary ball handler in the pros as well as score.
17. Memphis Grizzlies- Demeatrius Jackson, Point Guard, Notre Dame: Memphis needs depth at point guard even if Mike Conley re-signs. Jackson has speed to play in the open court, leaping ability to play above the rim and a quick first step to create an opening. The physical advantages are especially important because he does have great size. He gives Notre Dame the chance to send a point guard into the first round for the second year in a row (after Jerian Grant went 19th last June).
18. Detroit Pistons- Damian Jones, Center, Vanderbilt: Detroit needs offense in general and especially 3-point threats, but there is no obvious answer here in the land of backup big men. Jones turns 21 the week after the draft, is more developed than many others in the class and could play behind Andre Drummond. Jones has NBA size and athleticism, the makings of being able to play up in an up-tempo system or a power game and become a shot blocker. The offense needs work.
19. Denver Nuggets (via Portland Trail Blazers)- Ivica Zubac, Center, Croatia: Zubac is a 7-foot-1 big man that many believe could have terrific potential in the pick-and-roll offensively and as a traditional paint defender defensively. He may or may not come over immediately.
20. Indiana Pacers- Wade Baldwin IV, Point Guard, Vanderbilt: The improbable rise from under-the-radar college recruit to the Southeastern Conference All-Freshman team has taken him all the way to the edge of the lottery, and possibly into the top 14 with good workouts, after the sophomore campaign. He is a fiery, emotional leader who tries to take control, even as a freshman. With the extra attention from defenses, though, he went from 43.9 percent overall to 42.7 and from 43.9 percent behind the arc to 40.6.
21. Atlanta Hawks- Taurean Prince, Small Forward, Baylor: The Hawks really missed the toughness and versatility DeMarre Carroll brought to both forward spots, which could cause them to take a long look at Prince. He is a tough, perimeter-oriented combo forward who has an NBA-ready frame and can have a valuable role in today’s style of play with his ability to stretch the floor.
22. Charlotte Hornets- Ante Zizic, Center, Coratia: A high-energy player with nice athleticism for a big, he runs the floor well and handles the contact of playing inside. His offensive game is still limited, though. Zizic is 19, making him an ideal draft-and-stash pick for the end of the first round. With his intensity and with time, he could become a contributor for an NBA team.
23. Boston Celtics- Cheick Diallo, Center, Kansas: The Mali native who attended high school in New York state had a very choppy freshman season at Kansas, from missing two exhibitions and five games as the NCAA sorted through eligibility issues to undependable play once he was cleared. There were stretches when just staying on the court was a challenge, and he averaged 7.5 minutes. But athleticism, size and potential on defense makes him a very intriguing prospect. While it would not be a surprise if he dropped out of the first round, some team will be lured by the physical tools to invest intensive coaching and a lot of D-League time -- more likely a team making its third pick.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami Heat via Cleveland Cavaliers)- Dejounte Murray, Point Guard, Washington: Do I think there's any situation on planet Earth where I would select Murray over Kentucky point guard Tyler Ulis? No, I don't. But it's a pretty distinct possibility in the draft where Murray is seen as a solid potential guard who can really score it and pass well. However, he's still inefficient, can't shoot, can't finish around the rim, and makes poor decisions. There would be upside, but he has a ways to go to reach it.
25. Los Angeles Clippers- DeAndre' Bembry, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Saint Joseph's: Bembry would be the kind of wing that would really help a team that's contending early in his career. He's tough, he's smart, he competes, and he plays well within an offensive scheme. He needs to do a lot still in terms of proving himself as a shooter, but Bembry could easily become an excellent fit in between J.J. Redick and Blake Griffin if the team decides to not make any moves this offseason in terms of its core.
26. Philadelphia 76ers (from Oklahoma City Thunder via Cleveland Cavaliers/Denver Nuggets)- Malik Beasley, Shooting Guard, Florida State: With their third pick in the first round, Philadelphia could look to shore up one of their real needs, perimeter shooting. Beasley showed a consistent stroke and NBA-range as a freshman at Florida State, and is even a bit more versatile on offense than just a shooter.
27. Toronto Raptors- Diamond Stone, Power Forward/Center, Maryland: Again, size and athleticism are the Raptors' need and calling card, respectively, and Stone has both in spades. While he didn't have the season many expected at Maryland, the Raptors have the team and infrastructure in place to let Stone take his time, and hopefully develop into the player he's capable of becoming.
28. Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland Cavaliers via Boston Celtics)- Juan Hernangomez, Power Forward, Spain: This is Phoenix’s third pick in the first round, and I would expect them to take a player they can leave overseas for a bit longer. Hernangomez is a skilled power forward, with the ability to step away from the rim a bit, and he has played a good amount of minutes overseas already. He could be ready to come over in a year or two at the rate he is developing.
29. San Antonio Spurs- Brice Johnson, Power Forward, North Carolina: With Tim Duncan's future still up in the air, Johnson can at least add some athleticism to the frontcourt. While not the most skilled offensive player, he has improved a lot over the past few years, and his ability to run the floor and rebound could make him a very good value this low in the first round.
30. Golden State Warriors- Zhou Qi, Center, China: Zhou said he can make a smooth transition to the United States even if it is not in a city with a large Chinese population, so ending up in the Bay Area would simply be a bonus. Similarly, it would not be a marketing move by the Warriors. (Like they need one.) Zhou has to bulk up, but someone will probably invest a weightlifting regiment and patience near the end of the first round or the start of the second for a 7-2 prospect with agility. Golden State is looking for cap flexibility heading into free agency, increasing the chances of picking a player to stay overseas.
Thursday, June 16, 2016
2016 NHL Mock Draft: 1st Edition
Here is my first edition of my 2016 NHL Mock Draft.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs- Auston Matthews, Center, Zurich, Switzerland: Many scouts were impressed with Matthews’s defensive acumen at the World Championships. Leafs can’t pass on this opportunity.
2. Winnipeg Jets- Patrik Laine, Wing, Tappara, Finland: The big winger believes he is the best player in the draft. Only years of NHL competition will prove whether he’s right.
3. Columbus Blue Jackets- Jesse Puljujarvi, Wing, Karpat, Finland: Blue Jackets can add this outstanding skater to the youngsters that captured the Calder Cup with the Lake Erie Monsters.
4. Edmonton Oilers- Matthew Tkachuk, Wing, London (OHL): Outstanding at Memorial Cup despite playing on one leg because of a bad ankle. Potted OT winner in championship game.
5. Vancouver Canucks- Pierre-Luc Dubois, Wing/Center, Cape Breton (QMJHL): This youngster has added 40 pounds of muscle and two inches in height over two years. Very complete player.
6. Calgary Flames- Alexander Nylander, Wing, Mississauga (OHL): If the Flames don’t trade down, Nylander makes sense to complement young centremen already in organization.
7. Arizona Coyotes- Olli Juolevi, Defenseman, London Knights (OHL): Yotes have a nice group of young forwards, could use a smooth puck mover to work with OEL.
8. Buffalo Sabres- Mikhail Sergachev, Defenseman, Windsor (OHL): Many GMs see the young Russian as the best defenceman in the draft. Could easily be gone by the time Tim Murray picks.
9. Montreal Canadiens- Logan Brown, Center, Windsor (OHL): Great size down the middle is an element the Habs don’t have. Juolevi or Sergachev could fit here if they’re still available.
10. Colorado Avalanche- Logan Stanley, Defenseman, Windsor (OHL): This big defenceman is high on some lists, not so high on others. One of the variables on which the first round could turn.
11. New Jersey Devils- Tyson Jost, Center, Penticton (BCHL): Had an outstanding world under-18 tournament, where he broke Connor McDavid’s Canadian record for points. Scouts say he oozes leadership.
12. Ottawa Senators- Clayton Keller, Center, U.S. National Development Team: If the draft plays out this way, the Senators would have their pick of a potential top-line centre here, be it Keller or Ontario product Michael McLeod. Keller is smaller but he’s always “in the fight” and making things happen offensively. Keller is a catalyst who has chemistry with Colin White, Ottawa’s first-rounder from 2015, having played together in the past.
13. Carolina Hurricanes- Michael McLeod, Center, Mississauga (OHL): Ron Francis probably wants to pick a centre — ideally Brown, for his size, but assuming he’s off the board, McLeod would make for a nice consolation prize.
14. Boston Bruins- Jake Bean, Defenseman, Calgary (WHL): Didn’t get to play under-18s because of a broken foot. Might be best puck mover of the first round blueline candidates.
15. Minnesota Wild- Kieffer Bellows, Wing, U.S. National Development Team: The son of former Minnesota North Star, Brian Bellows, the bloodlines and the goal-scoring ability make this a logical selection. The younger Bellows is quite similar to Canucks prospect Brock Boeser, who had a breakout year at North Dakota. Bellows is bound for Boston University and could have a similar impact as an NCAA freshman.
16. Detroit Red Wings- Jakob Chychrun, Defenseman, Sarnia (OHL): Detroit could use defenseman and word on the street is that they want to trade up for one. Chychrun may have tumbled, but he’s still a blue chip prospect.
17. Nashville Predators- Tyler Benson, Center/Wing, Vancouver (WHL): The Predators seem like a team willing to take a chance on Benson despite his injury-plagued draft year (cyst on tailbone removed, resulting in inflamed pubic bone). Nashville drafts heavily out of the WHL and would have been watching Benson for years already. His skating could use a bit of work, but Benson is a natural centre who could slot in behind Ryan Johansen.
18. Philadelphia Flyers- Julien Gauthier, Wing, Val-d’Or (QMJHL): The Flyers like them big and strong and Gauthier certainly fits that bill as the son of a champion bodybuilder. Gauthier played for Canada at the world juniors as the lone draft-eligible and had a fairly strong showing on the big ice in Finland, yet seems to be falling for some reason.
19. New York Islanders- Riley Tufte, Wing, Fargo Force (USHL): The Islanders might be losing Kyle Okposo to free agency and would want to replace that size in their top-six forwards eventually. Tufte could be a good long-term option, but he’s really raw and his dominance of high-school hockey didn’t translate to junior.
20. Arizona Coyotes (via New York Rangers)- Max Jones, Wing, London (OHL): Big, rambunctious, fast and skillful. Sounds like nice fit with young forward group Coyotes have put together.
21. Carolina Hurricanes (via Los Angeles Kings)- Charlie McAvoy, Defenseman, Boston University (NCAA): This would be a steal for Carolina if McAvoy drops here. He would pair up nicely with Justin Faulk and last years first round pick Noah Hanifin.
22. Winnipeg Jets (via Chicago Blackhawks)- Kale Clague, Defenseman, Brandon (WHL): Winnipeg would have the book on Clague, with him playing just up the road in Brandon. Clague had his struggles this season and was stuck behind Ivan Provorov and captain Macoy Erkamps on the depth chart, but Clague came on strong in the WHL playoffs and probably did enough to push himself back into the first round.
23. Florida Panthers- Luke Kunin Wing/Center, Wisconsin (NCAA): The Panthers’ new analytics-based scouting department takes their best player available here in Kunin, who could be one of the draft’s biggest risers based on a strong showing at the combine. Some have Kunin inside the top 20 and even close to the top 10, but this spot still seems appropriate.
24. Anaheim Ducks- Alex DeBrincat, Center/Wing, Erie (OHL): The Ducks have a lot of size in their forward group but could use a bit more speed and energy. DeBrincat doesn’t have the wheels of Andrew Cogliano (25th overall in 2005), but he’s a better scorer — as evidenced by back-to-back 50-goal seasons in junior — and doesn’t let his size hold him back.
25. Dallas Stars- Dante Fabbro, Defenseman, Penticton (BCHL): This feels like too low for the talented Penticton blueliner. Dallas is in need of defense and Fabbro would be an excellent pick.
26. Washington Capitals- Vitaly Abramov, Wing/Center, Gatineau (QMJHL): The Capitals like their Russians too and might be hoping Rubtsov falls to them, but Abramov is a nice consolation prize and he’s already playing on this side of the pond. Abramov is a shifty, high-skill player, perhaps a bit more explosive than Capitals forward Andre Burakovsky.
27. Tampa Bay Lightning- Pascal Laberge, Wing/Center, Victoriaville (QMJHL): Speaking of liking Russian forwards, the Lightning would probably take Rubtsov or Abramov if either of them are available here. Instead, Tampa Bay takes Laberge, who was the first star of the CHL Top Prospects Game.
28. Saint Louis Blues- Tage Thompson, Center, Connecticut (NCAA): The Blues may be surprised to see Thompson still available here, considering his size and stat-line, and the fact his father Brent played in the NHL. Thompson will need to bulk up over the next couple seasons in college, but he has towering potential.
29. Boston Bruins (via San Jose Sharks)- Sam Steel, Center, Regina (WHL): Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci are both 30. Time to start thinking about depth down the middle.
30. Toronto Maple Leafs (via Pittsburgh Penguins)- Dennis Cholowski, Defenseman, Chilliwack (BCHL): Heading to St. Cloud next season. Jumped to No. 23 from No. 48 in final Central Scouting rankings.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs- Auston Matthews, Center, Zurich, Switzerland: Many scouts were impressed with Matthews’s defensive acumen at the World Championships. Leafs can’t pass on this opportunity.
2. Winnipeg Jets- Patrik Laine, Wing, Tappara, Finland: The big winger believes he is the best player in the draft. Only years of NHL competition will prove whether he’s right.
3. Columbus Blue Jackets- Jesse Puljujarvi, Wing, Karpat, Finland: Blue Jackets can add this outstanding skater to the youngsters that captured the Calder Cup with the Lake Erie Monsters.
4. Edmonton Oilers- Matthew Tkachuk, Wing, London (OHL): Outstanding at Memorial Cup despite playing on one leg because of a bad ankle. Potted OT winner in championship game.
5. Vancouver Canucks- Pierre-Luc Dubois, Wing/Center, Cape Breton (QMJHL): This youngster has added 40 pounds of muscle and two inches in height over two years. Very complete player.
6. Calgary Flames- Alexander Nylander, Wing, Mississauga (OHL): If the Flames don’t trade down, Nylander makes sense to complement young centremen already in organization.
7. Arizona Coyotes- Olli Juolevi, Defenseman, London Knights (OHL): Yotes have a nice group of young forwards, could use a smooth puck mover to work with OEL.
8. Buffalo Sabres- Mikhail Sergachev, Defenseman, Windsor (OHL): Many GMs see the young Russian as the best defenceman in the draft. Could easily be gone by the time Tim Murray picks.
9. Montreal Canadiens- Logan Brown, Center, Windsor (OHL): Great size down the middle is an element the Habs don’t have. Juolevi or Sergachev could fit here if they’re still available.
10. Colorado Avalanche- Logan Stanley, Defenseman, Windsor (OHL): This big defenceman is high on some lists, not so high on others. One of the variables on which the first round could turn.
11. New Jersey Devils- Tyson Jost, Center, Penticton (BCHL): Had an outstanding world under-18 tournament, where he broke Connor McDavid’s Canadian record for points. Scouts say he oozes leadership.
12. Ottawa Senators- Clayton Keller, Center, U.S. National Development Team: If the draft plays out this way, the Senators would have their pick of a potential top-line centre here, be it Keller or Ontario product Michael McLeod. Keller is smaller but he’s always “in the fight” and making things happen offensively. Keller is a catalyst who has chemistry with Colin White, Ottawa’s first-rounder from 2015, having played together in the past.
13. Carolina Hurricanes- Michael McLeod, Center, Mississauga (OHL): Ron Francis probably wants to pick a centre — ideally Brown, for his size, but assuming he’s off the board, McLeod would make for a nice consolation prize.
14. Boston Bruins- Jake Bean, Defenseman, Calgary (WHL): Didn’t get to play under-18s because of a broken foot. Might be best puck mover of the first round blueline candidates.
15. Minnesota Wild- Kieffer Bellows, Wing, U.S. National Development Team: The son of former Minnesota North Star, Brian Bellows, the bloodlines and the goal-scoring ability make this a logical selection. The younger Bellows is quite similar to Canucks prospect Brock Boeser, who had a breakout year at North Dakota. Bellows is bound for Boston University and could have a similar impact as an NCAA freshman.
16. Detroit Red Wings- Jakob Chychrun, Defenseman, Sarnia (OHL): Detroit could use defenseman and word on the street is that they want to trade up for one. Chychrun may have tumbled, but he’s still a blue chip prospect.
17. Nashville Predators- Tyler Benson, Center/Wing, Vancouver (WHL): The Predators seem like a team willing to take a chance on Benson despite his injury-plagued draft year (cyst on tailbone removed, resulting in inflamed pubic bone). Nashville drafts heavily out of the WHL and would have been watching Benson for years already. His skating could use a bit of work, but Benson is a natural centre who could slot in behind Ryan Johansen.
18. Philadelphia Flyers- Julien Gauthier, Wing, Val-d’Or (QMJHL): The Flyers like them big and strong and Gauthier certainly fits that bill as the son of a champion bodybuilder. Gauthier played for Canada at the world juniors as the lone draft-eligible and had a fairly strong showing on the big ice in Finland, yet seems to be falling for some reason.
19. New York Islanders- Riley Tufte, Wing, Fargo Force (USHL): The Islanders might be losing Kyle Okposo to free agency and would want to replace that size in their top-six forwards eventually. Tufte could be a good long-term option, but he’s really raw and his dominance of high-school hockey didn’t translate to junior.
20. Arizona Coyotes (via New York Rangers)- Max Jones, Wing, London (OHL): Big, rambunctious, fast and skillful. Sounds like nice fit with young forward group Coyotes have put together.
21. Carolina Hurricanes (via Los Angeles Kings)- Charlie McAvoy, Defenseman, Boston University (NCAA): This would be a steal for Carolina if McAvoy drops here. He would pair up nicely with Justin Faulk and last years first round pick Noah Hanifin.
22. Winnipeg Jets (via Chicago Blackhawks)- Kale Clague, Defenseman, Brandon (WHL): Winnipeg would have the book on Clague, with him playing just up the road in Brandon. Clague had his struggles this season and was stuck behind Ivan Provorov and captain Macoy Erkamps on the depth chart, but Clague came on strong in the WHL playoffs and probably did enough to push himself back into the first round.
23. Florida Panthers- Luke Kunin Wing/Center, Wisconsin (NCAA): The Panthers’ new analytics-based scouting department takes their best player available here in Kunin, who could be one of the draft’s biggest risers based on a strong showing at the combine. Some have Kunin inside the top 20 and even close to the top 10, but this spot still seems appropriate.
24. Anaheim Ducks- Alex DeBrincat, Center/Wing, Erie (OHL): The Ducks have a lot of size in their forward group but could use a bit more speed and energy. DeBrincat doesn’t have the wheels of Andrew Cogliano (25th overall in 2005), but he’s a better scorer — as evidenced by back-to-back 50-goal seasons in junior — and doesn’t let his size hold him back.
25. Dallas Stars- Dante Fabbro, Defenseman, Penticton (BCHL): This feels like too low for the talented Penticton blueliner. Dallas is in need of defense and Fabbro would be an excellent pick.
26. Washington Capitals- Vitaly Abramov, Wing/Center, Gatineau (QMJHL): The Capitals like their Russians too and might be hoping Rubtsov falls to them, but Abramov is a nice consolation prize and he’s already playing on this side of the pond. Abramov is a shifty, high-skill player, perhaps a bit more explosive than Capitals forward Andre Burakovsky.
27. Tampa Bay Lightning- Pascal Laberge, Wing/Center, Victoriaville (QMJHL): Speaking of liking Russian forwards, the Lightning would probably take Rubtsov or Abramov if either of them are available here. Instead, Tampa Bay takes Laberge, who was the first star of the CHL Top Prospects Game.
28. Saint Louis Blues- Tage Thompson, Center, Connecticut (NCAA): The Blues may be surprised to see Thompson still available here, considering his size and stat-line, and the fact his father Brent played in the NHL. Thompson will need to bulk up over the next couple seasons in college, but he has towering potential.
29. Boston Bruins (via San Jose Sharks)- Sam Steel, Center, Regina (WHL): Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci are both 30. Time to start thinking about depth down the middle.
30. Toronto Maple Leafs (via Pittsburgh Penguins)- Dennis Cholowski, Defenseman, Chilliwack (BCHL): Heading to St. Cloud next season. Jumped to No. 23 from No. 48 in final Central Scouting rankings.
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
2016 NBA Mock Draft: 5th Edition
Here is my fifth edition of my 2016 NBA Mock Draft.
1. Philadelphia 76ers- Ben Simmons, Power Forward, LSU: With their hodge podge of big men and Simmons with star potential with his ball handling and passing, he’s an obvious choice even as some executives favor Ingram for his shooting. Simmons isn’t a good shooter.
2. Los Angeles Lakers- Brandon Ingram, Small Forward, Duke: The Lakers needed a little bit of luck, and got it here. Not only were they able to keep the selection (it was top-three protected) and end up with the No. 2 pick in a two-player draft, but they're also in line to grab a guy whose skills perfectly complement the other pieces they already have. LA is still a long way away from competing for titles, but Ingram and D'Angelo Russell are good pieces to build around.
3. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets)- Jamal Murray, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, Kentucky: Look, the Celtics don't need Murray. I think that Danny Ainge finds a way to move this pick before it's selected. The Celtics just have too many assets, and if they really want to move it they should have no problem getting the right compensation for the pick. I've gone with Murray here, as I think he'd be the most likely candidate someone would trade up to acquire.
4. Phoenix Suns- Dragan Bender, Power Forward/Center, Croatia: The Suns will likely get to pick up a stretch-four here to help their floor spacing. Bender is the top guy on my board, and the clear selection for them. Marquese Chriss will also be in play though, and his upside may prove too much for the Suns to pass on. The team should also consider Jaylen Brown as an athletic wing next to Devin Booker.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves- Kris Dunn, Point Guard, Providence: With Tom Thibodeau in town, it's relatively easy to see why he would like a player like Kris Dunn. Dunn is about as good a defensive player as you'll find, plus is quite good offensively with great vision and athleticism. Yeah, he does overlap a bit with Ricky Rubio. But you need more than two guards in the rotation, and right now there's just not another trustworthy guy on the roster. Also, the Wolves could theoretically look to extract value for an excellent piece in Rubio.
6. New Orleans Pelicans- Buddy Hield, Shooting Guard, Oklahoma: Eric Gordon is a free agent, however little he played, anyway, and they could use space shooting to open the floor for Anthony Davis. He’s one of the biggest names in college ball, and they can use the star attention.
7. Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks)- Jaylen Brown, Small Forward, California: Brown has the skill to go as high as No. 3, but an attitude that could cause him to fall well beyond this No. 7 spot in the draft. Still, if Brown can put together his immense gifts, he could team with Emmanuel Mudiay on one of the most exciting young rosters in the league.
8. Sacramento Kings- Marquese Chriss, Power Forward, Washington: Chriss is a fast riser and he would be an interesting fit with Sacramento. It would be interesting to see if they would start him ohave him come off the bench.
9. Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets)- Jakob Poeltl, Power Forward/Center, Utah: The Raptors will likely lose Bismack Biyombo to free agency this offseason, meaning Poeltl makes sense as a backup to start with for Jonas Valanciunas. They would probably like to take a stretch-four or potentially a wing in order to brace for if DeMar DeRozan leaves, but Poeltl is the best player remaining on the board and definitely fills a spot of need as the Raptors look to likely rebound next year back into the conference finals.
10. Milwaukee Bucks- Deyonta Davis, Power Forward, Michigan State: The Bucks tend to like long athletic players with a high upside, and Davis fits that billing. The 6-10 big man is a good defensive player already due to his ability to move his feet and protect the rim, plus he has potential shooting the ball out to around 15 to 18 feet at some point in his career. Davis still has a way's to go, but at the very least he'd give their frontcourt a bit of a different look, especially if they're seriously going to try the Point Giannis experiment.
11. Orlando Magic- Skal Labissiere, Power Forward/Center, Kentucky: Despite Labissiere's disappointing freshman season at Kentucky, his two skill sets – shot blocking and perimeter shooting – would be a nice fit next to Nikola Vucevic, even if he might be a bit risky.
12. Utah Jazz- Wade Baldwin, Point Guard, Vanderbilt: Baldwin's size, defensive versatility, and improvement as a catch-and-shoot player gives him the positional versatility that could make him an interesting fit in Utah’s backcourt rotation.
13. Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards)- Furkan Korkmaz, Shooting Guard, Turkey: Korkmaz is a pretty highly skilled player that is also one of the youngest players in the draft. He's a good athlete that particularly can get up and throw down, but isn't the best in terms of creating offense for himself at this stage due to a rudimentary dribble. Still, he'd be big enough to pair with Devin Booker on the wing, and would really continue to combine with Bender to provide floor-spacing for their guards. This is a really interesting call here, as none of the players in this area of the draft fully fit the Suns.
14. Chicago Bulls- Henry Ellenson, Power Forward/Center, Marquette: Coach Fred Holberg has always had a terrific, playmaking big man on his Iowa State teams. First, it was Royce White. Then, it was Georges Niang. Now, the Bulls can take Ellenson and see if he can recreate some of the magic with his superb basketball sense, potential to shoot the basketball, and solid passing ability out of both the low and high posts
15. Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets)- Timothe Luwawu, Shooting Guard, France: The Nuggets seem like the perfect fit for Luwawu. The team needs length on the wing badly, and he can provide that in spades to pair with solid athleticism. The key will be whether or not he can develop as a shooter. If he can do that, he has potential to really be an elite role player in his NBA future.
16. Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks)- Domantas Sabonis, Power Forward/Center, Gonzaga: The Celtics here select Sabonis, who is the kind of smart forward that Brad Stevens has had success with thus far in his career. The 6-10 son of Hall of Famer Arvydas, Domantas is a terrific talent who can really rebound the heck out of the ball, has terrific touch around the rim, and plays with fire seen by few in the NBA.
17. Memphis Grizzlies- Demeatrius Jackson, Point Guard, Notre Dame: Memphis needs depth at point guard even if Mike Conley re-signs. Jackson has speed to play in the open court, leaping ability to play above the rim and a quick first step to create an opening. The physical advantages are especially important because he does have great size. He gives Notre Dame the chance to send a point guard into the first round for the second year in a row (after Jerian Grant went 19th last June).
18. Detroit Pistons- Denzel Valentine, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Michigan State: Valentine could experience a bit of a fall on draft day. But it would still be a surprise if the Pistons -- who could use a player off the bench to score, distribute and make plays offensively -- passed on the kid from right up the road at Michigan State. He was just so tremendous this season that he'd fit perfectly.
19. Denver Nuggets (via Portland Trail Blazers)- Brice Johnson, Power Forward, North Carolina: Sure, Jaylen Brown and Timothe Luwawu are fun, long-term upside guys, but at some point, you need some adults in the locker room to balance out all the youth. After four years at North Carolina, Johnson is definitely an adult, and a guy who will do all the little things (defend, rebound and score when needed) to help the team win.
20. Indiana Pacers- Tyler Ulis, Point Guard, Kentucky: They sure need a point guard. You don’t get great ones this far down in the draft, though the pros agree he’s the best pure point guard in the draft. But the 5-10 measurement is with shoes. With lifts? His height scares teams away, but it did with Isaiah Thomas, too.
21. Atlanta Hawks- Damian Jones, Power Forward/Center, Vanderbilt: The Hawks could really use a solid center just in case Al Horford leaves in the offseason. Jones represents a bit of an upside pick despite his age, as the 7-footer can really move for his size. Scouts around the league do not believe he was utilized in the best possible manner at Vanderbilt, and that he could easily turn into a solid player in the NBA.
22. Charlotte Hornets- Malik Beasley, Shooting Guard, Florida State: With Courtney Lee and Nic Batum potentially gone on the wing, and Al Jefferson also hitting free agency, Charlotte sure does have a lot of needs for a team which nearly made the second round of the playoffs. In the paint, the Hornets should be able to address those needs internally (hey, Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky), but on the wing it's another story altogether. Because of that, Beasley could be a great fit in Charlotte, after averaging 15 points in his sole season in Tallahassee.
23. Boston Celtics- Taurean Prince, Small Forward, Baylor: It only makes sense that the Celtics actually use their third first-round pick in the one place that's actually a position of need: the wing. Prince should be their guy, after averaging 16 points last year at Baylor, and showing the necessary size (6-8, 220) and skill set (36 percent shooting beyond the arc) to be a starter in this league for years to come.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami Heat via Cleveland Cavaliers)- Dejounte Murray, Point Guard, Washington: Do I think there's any situation on planet Earth where I would select Murray over Kentucky point guard Tyler Ulis? No, I don't. But it's a pretty distinct possibility in the draft where Murray is seen as a solid potential guard who can really score it and pass well. However, he's still inefficient, can't shoot, can't finish around the rim, and makes poor decisions. There would be upside, but he has a ways to go to reach it.
25. Los Angeles Clippers- DeAndre' Bembry, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Saint Joseph's: Bembry would be the kind of wing that would really help a team that's contending early in his career. He's tough, he's smart, he competes, and he plays well within an offensive scheme. He needs to do a lot still in terms of proving himself as a shooter, but Bembry could easily become an excellent fit in between J.J. Redick and Blake Griffin if the team decides to not make any moves this offseason in terms of its core.
26. Philadelphia 76ers (from Oklahoma City Thunder via Cleveland Cavaliers/Denver Nuggets)- Cheick Diallo, Center, Kansas: It would seem the Sixers are going to trade at least one of Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel. Regardless, Diallo makes sense to draft here, as the center is a high-upside player as a rim-runner in transition, offensive rebounder, and potentially highly versatile defender due to his athleticism. He'd be a nice option to pair with Ben Simmons in the frontcourt.
27. Toronto Raptors- Diamond Stone, Power Forward/Center, Maryland: Again, size and athleticism are the Raptors' need and calling card, respectively, and Stone has both in spades. While he didn't have the season many expected at Maryland, the Raptors have the team and infrastructure in place to let Stone take his time, and hopefully develop into the player he's capable of becoming.
28. Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland Cavaliers via Boston Celtics)- Thon Maker, Center, Austrailia: I don't know that I'd take Maker in the first round, but I do think that's where he ends up in this draft. The 7-footer who has tremendous skills but also quite a few questions settles to Phoenix here, a situation that could use something of a stretch-four or five. Yeah, this would be a lot of projects and youth in a single draft for Phoenix, But there's a lot of upside too if they can make everything work.
29. San Antonio Spurs- Ivica Zubac, Center, Croatia: Zubac is a 7-foot-1 big man that many believe could have terrific potential in the pick-and-roll offensively and as a traditional paint defender defensively. He may or may not come over immediately.
30. Golden State Warriors- Juan Hernangomez, Power Forward, Spain: The Warriors get a bit richer here as they pick up the ACB league's young player of the year in Hernangomez. With the team set to lose Marreese Speights in the offseason, they could stand to pick up a shooting forward who can stretch the floor and play smart on the glass.
1. Philadelphia 76ers- Ben Simmons, Power Forward, LSU: With their hodge podge of big men and Simmons with star potential with his ball handling and passing, he’s an obvious choice even as some executives favor Ingram for his shooting. Simmons isn’t a good shooter.
2. Los Angeles Lakers- Brandon Ingram, Small Forward, Duke: The Lakers needed a little bit of luck, and got it here. Not only were they able to keep the selection (it was top-three protected) and end up with the No. 2 pick in a two-player draft, but they're also in line to grab a guy whose skills perfectly complement the other pieces they already have. LA is still a long way away from competing for titles, but Ingram and D'Angelo Russell are good pieces to build around.
3. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets)- Jamal Murray, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, Kentucky: Look, the Celtics don't need Murray. I think that Danny Ainge finds a way to move this pick before it's selected. The Celtics just have too many assets, and if they really want to move it they should have no problem getting the right compensation for the pick. I've gone with Murray here, as I think he'd be the most likely candidate someone would trade up to acquire.
4. Phoenix Suns- Dragan Bender, Power Forward/Center, Croatia: The Suns will likely get to pick up a stretch-four here to help their floor spacing. Bender is the top guy on my board, and the clear selection for them. Marquese Chriss will also be in play though, and his upside may prove too much for the Suns to pass on. The team should also consider Jaylen Brown as an athletic wing next to Devin Booker.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves- Kris Dunn, Point Guard, Providence: With Tom Thibodeau in town, it's relatively easy to see why he would like a player like Kris Dunn. Dunn is about as good a defensive player as you'll find, plus is quite good offensively with great vision and athleticism. Yeah, he does overlap a bit with Ricky Rubio. But you need more than two guards in the rotation, and right now there's just not another trustworthy guy on the roster. Also, the Wolves could theoretically look to extract value for an excellent piece in Rubio.
6. New Orleans Pelicans- Buddy Hield, Shooting Guard, Oklahoma: Eric Gordon is a free agent, however little he played, anyway, and they could use space shooting to open the floor for Anthony Davis. He’s one of the biggest names in college ball, and they can use the star attention.
7. Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks)- Jaylen Brown, Small Forward, California: Brown has the skill to go as high as No. 3, but an attitude that could cause him to fall well beyond this No. 7 spot in the draft. Still, if Brown can put together his immense gifts, he could team with Emmanuel Mudiay on one of the most exciting young rosters in the league.
8. Sacramento Kings- Marquese Chriss, Power Forward, Washington: Chriss is a fast riser and he would be an interesting fit with Sacramento. It would be interesting to see if they would start him ohave him come off the bench.
9. Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets)- Jakob Poeltl, Power Forward/Center, Utah: The Raptors will likely lose Bismack Biyombo to free agency this offseason, meaning Poeltl makes sense as a backup to start with for Jonas Valanciunas. They would probably like to take a stretch-four or potentially a wing in order to brace for if DeMar DeRozan leaves, but Poeltl is the best player remaining on the board and definitely fills a spot of need as the Raptors look to likely rebound next year back into the conference finals.
10. Milwaukee Bucks- Deyonta Davis, Power Forward, Michigan State: The Bucks tend to like long athletic players with a high upside, and Davis fits that billing. The 6-10 big man is a good defensive player already due to his ability to move his feet and protect the rim, plus he has potential shooting the ball out to around 15 to 18 feet at some point in his career. Davis still has a way's to go, but at the very least he'd give their frontcourt a bit of a different look, especially if they're seriously going to try the Point Giannis experiment.
11. Orlando Magic- Skal Labissiere, Power Forward/Center, Kentucky: Despite Labissiere's disappointing freshman season at Kentucky, his two skill sets – shot blocking and perimeter shooting – would be a nice fit next to Nikola Vucevic, even if he might be a bit risky.
12. Utah Jazz- Wade Baldwin, Point Guard, Vanderbilt: Baldwin's size, defensive versatility, and improvement as a catch-and-shoot player gives him the positional versatility that could make him an interesting fit in Utah’s backcourt rotation.
13. Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards)- Furkan Korkmaz, Shooting Guard, Turkey: Korkmaz is a pretty highly skilled player that is also one of the youngest players in the draft. He's a good athlete that particularly can get up and throw down, but isn't the best in terms of creating offense for himself at this stage due to a rudimentary dribble. Still, he'd be big enough to pair with Devin Booker on the wing, and would really continue to combine with Bender to provide floor-spacing for their guards. This is a really interesting call here, as none of the players in this area of the draft fully fit the Suns.
14. Chicago Bulls- Henry Ellenson, Power Forward/Center, Marquette: Coach Fred Holberg has always had a terrific, playmaking big man on his Iowa State teams. First, it was Royce White. Then, it was Georges Niang. Now, the Bulls can take Ellenson and see if he can recreate some of the magic with his superb basketball sense, potential to shoot the basketball, and solid passing ability out of both the low and high posts
15. Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets)- Timothe Luwawu, Shooting Guard, France: The Nuggets seem like the perfect fit for Luwawu. The team needs length on the wing badly, and he can provide that in spades to pair with solid athleticism. The key will be whether or not he can develop as a shooter. If he can do that, he has potential to really be an elite role player in his NBA future.
16. Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks)- Domantas Sabonis, Power Forward/Center, Gonzaga: The Celtics here select Sabonis, who is the kind of smart forward that Brad Stevens has had success with thus far in his career. The 6-10 son of Hall of Famer Arvydas, Domantas is a terrific talent who can really rebound the heck out of the ball, has terrific touch around the rim, and plays with fire seen by few in the NBA.
17. Memphis Grizzlies- Demeatrius Jackson, Point Guard, Notre Dame: Memphis needs depth at point guard even if Mike Conley re-signs. Jackson has speed to play in the open court, leaping ability to play above the rim and a quick first step to create an opening. The physical advantages are especially important because he does have great size. He gives Notre Dame the chance to send a point guard into the first round for the second year in a row (after Jerian Grant went 19th last June).
18. Detroit Pistons- Denzel Valentine, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Michigan State: Valentine could experience a bit of a fall on draft day. But it would still be a surprise if the Pistons -- who could use a player off the bench to score, distribute and make plays offensively -- passed on the kid from right up the road at Michigan State. He was just so tremendous this season that he'd fit perfectly.
19. Denver Nuggets (via Portland Trail Blazers)- Brice Johnson, Power Forward, North Carolina: Sure, Jaylen Brown and Timothe Luwawu are fun, long-term upside guys, but at some point, you need some adults in the locker room to balance out all the youth. After four years at North Carolina, Johnson is definitely an adult, and a guy who will do all the little things (defend, rebound and score when needed) to help the team win.
20. Indiana Pacers- Tyler Ulis, Point Guard, Kentucky: They sure need a point guard. You don’t get great ones this far down in the draft, though the pros agree he’s the best pure point guard in the draft. But the 5-10 measurement is with shoes. With lifts? His height scares teams away, but it did with Isaiah Thomas, too.
21. Atlanta Hawks- Damian Jones, Power Forward/Center, Vanderbilt: The Hawks could really use a solid center just in case Al Horford leaves in the offseason. Jones represents a bit of an upside pick despite his age, as the 7-footer can really move for his size. Scouts around the league do not believe he was utilized in the best possible manner at Vanderbilt, and that he could easily turn into a solid player in the NBA.
22. Charlotte Hornets- Malik Beasley, Shooting Guard, Florida State: With Courtney Lee and Nic Batum potentially gone on the wing, and Al Jefferson also hitting free agency, Charlotte sure does have a lot of needs for a team which nearly made the second round of the playoffs. In the paint, the Hornets should be able to address those needs internally (hey, Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky), but on the wing it's another story altogether. Because of that, Beasley could be a great fit in Charlotte, after averaging 15 points in his sole season in Tallahassee.
23. Boston Celtics- Taurean Prince, Small Forward, Baylor: It only makes sense that the Celtics actually use their third first-round pick in the one place that's actually a position of need: the wing. Prince should be their guy, after averaging 16 points last year at Baylor, and showing the necessary size (6-8, 220) and skill set (36 percent shooting beyond the arc) to be a starter in this league for years to come.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami Heat via Cleveland Cavaliers)- Dejounte Murray, Point Guard, Washington: Do I think there's any situation on planet Earth where I would select Murray over Kentucky point guard Tyler Ulis? No, I don't. But it's a pretty distinct possibility in the draft where Murray is seen as a solid potential guard who can really score it and pass well. However, he's still inefficient, can't shoot, can't finish around the rim, and makes poor decisions. There would be upside, but he has a ways to go to reach it.
25. Los Angeles Clippers- DeAndre' Bembry, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Saint Joseph's: Bembry would be the kind of wing that would really help a team that's contending early in his career. He's tough, he's smart, he competes, and he plays well within an offensive scheme. He needs to do a lot still in terms of proving himself as a shooter, but Bembry could easily become an excellent fit in between J.J. Redick and Blake Griffin if the team decides to not make any moves this offseason in terms of its core.
26. Philadelphia 76ers (from Oklahoma City Thunder via Cleveland Cavaliers/Denver Nuggets)- Cheick Diallo, Center, Kansas: It would seem the Sixers are going to trade at least one of Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel. Regardless, Diallo makes sense to draft here, as the center is a high-upside player as a rim-runner in transition, offensive rebounder, and potentially highly versatile defender due to his athleticism. He'd be a nice option to pair with Ben Simmons in the frontcourt.
27. Toronto Raptors- Diamond Stone, Power Forward/Center, Maryland: Again, size and athleticism are the Raptors' need and calling card, respectively, and Stone has both in spades. While he didn't have the season many expected at Maryland, the Raptors have the team and infrastructure in place to let Stone take his time, and hopefully develop into the player he's capable of becoming.
28. Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland Cavaliers via Boston Celtics)- Thon Maker, Center, Austrailia: I don't know that I'd take Maker in the first round, but I do think that's where he ends up in this draft. The 7-footer who has tremendous skills but also quite a few questions settles to Phoenix here, a situation that could use something of a stretch-four or five. Yeah, this would be a lot of projects and youth in a single draft for Phoenix, But there's a lot of upside too if they can make everything work.
29. San Antonio Spurs- Ivica Zubac, Center, Croatia: Zubac is a 7-foot-1 big man that many believe could have terrific potential in the pick-and-roll offensively and as a traditional paint defender defensively. He may or may not come over immediately.
30. Golden State Warriors- Juan Hernangomez, Power Forward, Spain: The Warriors get a bit richer here as they pick up the ACB league's young player of the year in Hernangomez. With the team set to lose Marreese Speights in the offseason, they could stand to pick up a shooting forward who can stretch the floor and play smart on the glass.
Thursday, June 9, 2016
2016 MLB Mock Draft: Final Edition
Here is my final edition of my 2016 MLB Mock Draft.
1. Philadelphia Phillies- Mickey Moniak, Outfielder, LA Costa Canyon HS (CAL): AJ Puk might offer more upside, but Moniak has a high ceiling, too, and a higher floor as a surefire center fielder with as much pure hitting ability as anyone in this Draft. Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis and California high school outfielder Blake Rutherford are other possibilities for Philadelphia.
2. Cincinnati Reds- Nick Senzel, Third Baseman, Tennessee: Perhaps the most advanced bat in this Draft class, Senzel has closed strongly, swinging a hot bat as the Draft rapidly approaches. The Reds would have interest in AJ Puk should the Phils go elsewhere, while Kyle Lewis is a possibility too.
3. Atlanta Braves- Corey Ray, Outfielder, Louisville: Most of the buzz here is between Ray and Kyle Lewis, the top two college outfielders, and the Braves continue to discuss both. There has also been a good amount of noise about a potential deal involving Ian Anderson.
4. Colorado Rockies- AJ Puk, Pitcher, Florida: If Philadelphia passes on Mickey Moniak, Colorado would snap him up. Otherwise, the Rockies will decide among Puk, Kyle Lewis and Kansas high school right-hander Riley Pint.
5. Milwaukee Brewers- Blake Rutherford, Outfielder, Chaminade Prep High School (CAL): For several weeks, Delvin Perez and the Brewers were paired together, but when he reportedly tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs, that seemed less likely (although still not completely out of the question). Milwaukee would probably have a strong interest in Corey Ray here, and there is a lot of talk about potential deals, with Rutherford or perhaps with Zack Collins.
6. Oakland Athletics- Kyle Lewis, Outfielder, Mercer: Thanks to Moneyball, the A's are seen as a team that prefers college players to high schoolers. That hasn't always been the case though. They did take Addison Russell and Billy McKinney out of high school with their first-round picks in 2012 and 2013, respectively. That said, Lewis is the best player still on the board and arguably the best hitter in the draft class, so he's the guy. Lewis hit .395/.535/.731 with 20 homers, 66 strikeouts, and 48 walks in 61 games this season.
7. Miami Marlins- Braxton Garrett, Pitcher, Florence HS (ALA): Garrett has the highest floor among the prep pitchers, not to mention a lofty ceiling, and could be a better bet for long-term success as a starter than AJ Puk or Jason Groome. Riley Pint and Delvin Perez also would be in play if they're still on the board.
8. San Diego Padres- Jason Groome, Pitcher, Barnegat HS (NJ): San Diego has three first-round picks, a need for high-ceiling talent and a willingness to gamble. The Padres have been all over Stanford right-hander Cal Quantrill, a potential top-five pick had he not missed most of the last two seasons after Tommy John surgery, and know he won't get to their second choice at No. 24. But they may find Groome too tempting to pass up. Riley Pint and California right-hander Matt Manning are two more power arms on San Diego's radar.
9. Detroit Tigers- Riley Pint, Pitcher, Saint Thomas Aquinas HS (KS): This is Pint's absolute floor, and there's a good chance he gets to Detroit if Colorado doesn't take him. If Pint isn't available and someone surprising doesn't fall, the Tigers could turn to Cal Quantrill, Matt Manning, Mississippi State right-hander Dakota Hudson or Louisville right-hander Zack Burdi, a good bet to be the first player from the 2016 Draft to reach the big leagues.
10. Chicago White Sox- Justin Dunn, Pitcher, Boston College: If the Brewers don't make a deal with Rutherford, this could be a landing spot for him. But the White Sox often go the college pitching route, and no college pitcher had more helium than Dunn, the reliever-turned-starter who just helped pitch Boston College to a surprising Super Regional performance.
11. Seattle Mariners- Zack Collins, Catcher, Miami (FL): Seattle would be jumping up and down if Corey Ray makes it here, but that’s not happening. Boston College righty Justin Dunn is the other name I hear strongly connected here, but an advanced collegiate bat like Collins who has a chance—albeit slim—to stay behind the plate is the likely choice for the Mariners.
12. Boston Red Sox- Ian Anderson, Pitcher, Shenendehowa HS (NY): Given the opportunity, Boston would pounce on Garrett (the next few teams would love him as well) or Ray. Barring that, the Red Sox would have interest in Anderson; college arms Hudson, Burdi and Quantrill; Rutherford and Pennsylvania high school third baseman Nolan Jones.
13. Tampa Bay Rays- Delvin Perez, Shortstop, International Baseball Academy (PR): Perez’s stock is the most volatile in the class, especially with the recent news of a failed drug test. He’s also the most talented prep player in the class, and Tampa Bay has shown a willingness to take risks like this in the past.
14. Cleveland Indians- Cal Quantrill, Pitcher, Stanford: Quantrill is one of the biggest wild cards in the Draft as he has made just three starts since his freshman year because of Tommy John surgery. He did work out for a select number of teams, including the Indians. Cleveland took Brady Aiken a year ago, showing it isn't afraid to go down this path.
15. Minnesota Twins- Alex Kirilloff, Outfielder, Plum HS (PA): Most of the talk has been about high school players here, and some of the top prep arms could come into play, if signable. Kirilloff and his left-handed bat could land at any point in this area of the Draft as well, with the Twins having definite interest.
16. Los Angeles Angels- Dakota Hudson, Pitcher, Mississippi State: Los Angeles would have interest in Kirilloff and otherwise will look at college pitchers such as Hudson and fellow right-handers Cody Sedlock (Illinois), T.J. Zeuch (Pittsburgh) and Jordan Sheffield (Vanderbilt), plus high school hitters such as Georgians Josh Lowe and Will Benson.
17. Houston Astros- Cody Sedlock, Pitcher, Illinois: The Astros have only been attached to pitchers with this selection, so they’ll probably take an outfielder, because that’s how life works. But if they are serious about getting an arm—a strong possibility—and if Sedlock is off the board (also a strong possibility), they’ll look at guys like Louisville closer Zach Burdi or Pittsburgh righty T.J. Zeuch.
18. New York Yankees- Forrest Whitley, Pitcher, Alamo Heights HS (Texas): It looks like pitchers for New York and probably a high schooler. Anderson probably doesn't get by the Yankees, with Whitley, California right-hander Kevin Gowdy and Texas lefty Kyle Muller more likely to be available. TJ Zeuch could be the guy if New York goes the college route.
19. New York Mets- Will Craig, Third/First Baseman, Wake Forest: New York's interest in Craig is one of the worst-kept secrets this draft season. They're going college bat here unless all hell breaks lose in the first 18 picks. Craig is not the next quick riser like Michael Conforto, but he is the best college hitter on the board at this point. He hit .392/.537/.766 with 16 homers, 47 walks, and 33 steals this spring.
20. Los Angeles Dodgers- Joey Wentz, Pitcher, Shawnee Mission East HS (KS): Virginia's Matt Thais could be an option for the Dodgers here, as he fits their organizational needs perfectly. If he’s gone, they’ll look for some upside, and Wentz offers plenty of it, thanks to a big fastball and two quality offspeed pitchers.
21. Toronto Blue Jays- Taylor Trammell, Outfielder, Mount Paran Christian HS (GA): Most of my first 20 projected picks would represent close to a worst-case scenario for the Blue Jays in terms of players they like being gone and those they don't as much remaining on the board. If the best high school arms and Quantrill are unavailable, the supremely athletic Trammell could be the consolation prize.
22. Pittsburgh Pirates- Nolan Jones, Third Baseman, Holy Ghost Prep (PA): It might seem like the easy route to take, going with a Pennsylvania kid to the team in Pittsburgh. But there does seem to be interest in bringing Jones across the state and the Pirates certainly don't shy away from high school bats in the first round.
23. Saint Louis Cardinals- Zack Burdi, Pitcher, Louisville: Burdi's name was moving up boards as the Draft approached, as high as the top half of the first round. This seems like a much more reasonable landing spot. Burdi could get to the big leagues in a hurry out of the bullpen, but some feel he has the stuff to give starting a try.
Compensation Round A
24. San Diego Padres- Jordan Sheffield, Pitcher, Vanderbilt: The Padres take a break from aggressively pursuing upside to acquire some advanced pitching. Sheffield (6-feet tall, 185 pounds), isn't the biggest guy in the world, but he's thrown well for most of this season, for one of the best programs in the country (with a strong track record of producing professional pitchers).
25. San Diego Padres- Matt Manning, Pitcher, Sheldon High School (CAL): News of Manning's potential hefty price tag hasn't been a secret, a reported $5 million to give up playing basketball and baseball at Loyola Marymount. Many think teams with large bonus pools, such as the Phillies or Braves, are hoping Manning gets to them in the second round, but the Padres, with their three first-round picks, have the flexibility to potentially nab him before he gets there.
26. Chicago White Sox- Robert Tyler, Pitcher, Georgia: Tyler is one of the hardest throwers in the class, and he’ll show an above-average changeup as well, giving him a chance to be a fast-moving reliever or (maybe) a long-term starter if his breaking ball gets better. Gavin Lux, a lefty-swinging shortstop from Indian Trail Academy in Kenosha, Wis., is another name I’ve heard here.
27. Baltimore Orioles- Kyle Muller, Pitcher, Jesuit College Prep (TX): Baltimore could dip into any of the demographics -- college position player (Thaiss, Florida outfielder Buddy Reed), college pitcher (Burdi, Lauer), high school bat (Benson), high school arm (Muller).
28. Washington Nationals- Drew Mendoza, Third Baseman, Lake Minneola HS (FLA): His strong commitment to Florida State sounds like it will require an above-pick-value deal, but the Nats do have a pair of picks in the first round to play with.
29. Washington Nationals- Alec Hansen, Pitcher, Oklahoma: In the conversation to go No. 1 overall at the start of the spring, Hansen has seen his stock fall as much as any player in the country over the past few months. The Washington Nationals have a good track record of developing pitching and never shy away from taking a high-risk, high-reward chance on draft day, so Hansen could be a target.
30. Texas Rangers- Will Benson, Outfielder, The Westminster Schools (GA): Benson's tools intrigue many teams from the middle of the first round on, with the Rangers being a very possible landing spot. They certainly have not been afraid of taking high-ceiling, ultra-toolsy but a bit raw players in the past. The Padres and the Dodgers could also have interest.
31. New York Mets- Eric Lauer, Pitcher, Kent State: Every draft class has the “safe” lefty, a guy who isn’t going to need much time to develop in the system but doesn’t offer much upside. That’s what Lauer is, and that also describes Anthony Kay of UConn, another name I’ve heard the Mets are heavy on.
32. Los Angeles Dodgers- Bryan Reynolds, Outfielder, Vanderbilt: There are some swing-and-miss concerns, but Reynolds is a switch-hitter with four average-or-better tools, a chance to play center field and the highest OPS (1.067) in the Southeastern Conference. He's not generating a ton of first-round buzz but belongs in here somewhere.
33. Saint Louis Cardinals- Anthony Kay, Pitcher, Connecticut: Remember what I said about the safe lefty? The Cardinals have always loved those, and that’s why Kay (9–2, 2.65 ERA, 111 strikeouts in 119 innings) makes so much sense if he’s still on the board.
34. Saint Louis Cardinals- Buddy Reed, Outfielder, Florida: Reed's tools are undeniable and he is a premium athlete, one who is still relatively new to baseball. Whether he'll hit enough to use those tools consistently remains to be seen, but a team that thinks he can will take the chance.
1. Philadelphia Phillies- Mickey Moniak, Outfielder, LA Costa Canyon HS (CAL): AJ Puk might offer more upside, but Moniak has a high ceiling, too, and a higher floor as a surefire center fielder with as much pure hitting ability as anyone in this Draft. Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis and California high school outfielder Blake Rutherford are other possibilities for Philadelphia.
2. Cincinnati Reds- Nick Senzel, Third Baseman, Tennessee: Perhaps the most advanced bat in this Draft class, Senzel has closed strongly, swinging a hot bat as the Draft rapidly approaches. The Reds would have interest in AJ Puk should the Phils go elsewhere, while Kyle Lewis is a possibility too.
3. Atlanta Braves- Corey Ray, Outfielder, Louisville: Most of the buzz here is between Ray and Kyle Lewis, the top two college outfielders, and the Braves continue to discuss both. There has also been a good amount of noise about a potential deal involving Ian Anderson.
4. Colorado Rockies- AJ Puk, Pitcher, Florida: If Philadelphia passes on Mickey Moniak, Colorado would snap him up. Otherwise, the Rockies will decide among Puk, Kyle Lewis and Kansas high school right-hander Riley Pint.
5. Milwaukee Brewers- Blake Rutherford, Outfielder, Chaminade Prep High School (CAL): For several weeks, Delvin Perez and the Brewers were paired together, but when he reportedly tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs, that seemed less likely (although still not completely out of the question). Milwaukee would probably have a strong interest in Corey Ray here, and there is a lot of talk about potential deals, with Rutherford or perhaps with Zack Collins.
6. Oakland Athletics- Kyle Lewis, Outfielder, Mercer: Thanks to Moneyball, the A's are seen as a team that prefers college players to high schoolers. That hasn't always been the case though. They did take Addison Russell and Billy McKinney out of high school with their first-round picks in 2012 and 2013, respectively. That said, Lewis is the best player still on the board and arguably the best hitter in the draft class, so he's the guy. Lewis hit .395/.535/.731 with 20 homers, 66 strikeouts, and 48 walks in 61 games this season.
7. Miami Marlins- Braxton Garrett, Pitcher, Florence HS (ALA): Garrett has the highest floor among the prep pitchers, not to mention a lofty ceiling, and could be a better bet for long-term success as a starter than AJ Puk or Jason Groome. Riley Pint and Delvin Perez also would be in play if they're still on the board.
8. San Diego Padres- Jason Groome, Pitcher, Barnegat HS (NJ): San Diego has three first-round picks, a need for high-ceiling talent and a willingness to gamble. The Padres have been all over Stanford right-hander Cal Quantrill, a potential top-five pick had he not missed most of the last two seasons after Tommy John surgery, and know he won't get to their second choice at No. 24. But they may find Groome too tempting to pass up. Riley Pint and California right-hander Matt Manning are two more power arms on San Diego's radar.
9. Detroit Tigers- Riley Pint, Pitcher, Saint Thomas Aquinas HS (KS): This is Pint's absolute floor, and there's a good chance he gets to Detroit if Colorado doesn't take him. If Pint isn't available and someone surprising doesn't fall, the Tigers could turn to Cal Quantrill, Matt Manning, Mississippi State right-hander Dakota Hudson or Louisville right-hander Zack Burdi, a good bet to be the first player from the 2016 Draft to reach the big leagues.
10. Chicago White Sox- Justin Dunn, Pitcher, Boston College: If the Brewers don't make a deal with Rutherford, this could be a landing spot for him. But the White Sox often go the college pitching route, and no college pitcher had more helium than Dunn, the reliever-turned-starter who just helped pitch Boston College to a surprising Super Regional performance.
11. Seattle Mariners- Zack Collins, Catcher, Miami (FL): Seattle would be jumping up and down if Corey Ray makes it here, but that’s not happening. Boston College righty Justin Dunn is the other name I hear strongly connected here, but an advanced collegiate bat like Collins who has a chance—albeit slim—to stay behind the plate is the likely choice for the Mariners.
12. Boston Red Sox- Ian Anderson, Pitcher, Shenendehowa HS (NY): Given the opportunity, Boston would pounce on Garrett (the next few teams would love him as well) or Ray. Barring that, the Red Sox would have interest in Anderson; college arms Hudson, Burdi and Quantrill; Rutherford and Pennsylvania high school third baseman Nolan Jones.
13. Tampa Bay Rays- Delvin Perez, Shortstop, International Baseball Academy (PR): Perez’s stock is the most volatile in the class, especially with the recent news of a failed drug test. He’s also the most talented prep player in the class, and Tampa Bay has shown a willingness to take risks like this in the past.
14. Cleveland Indians- Cal Quantrill, Pitcher, Stanford: Quantrill is one of the biggest wild cards in the Draft as he has made just three starts since his freshman year because of Tommy John surgery. He did work out for a select number of teams, including the Indians. Cleveland took Brady Aiken a year ago, showing it isn't afraid to go down this path.
15. Minnesota Twins- Alex Kirilloff, Outfielder, Plum HS (PA): Most of the talk has been about high school players here, and some of the top prep arms could come into play, if signable. Kirilloff and his left-handed bat could land at any point in this area of the Draft as well, with the Twins having definite interest.
16. Los Angeles Angels- Dakota Hudson, Pitcher, Mississippi State: Los Angeles would have interest in Kirilloff and otherwise will look at college pitchers such as Hudson and fellow right-handers Cody Sedlock (Illinois), T.J. Zeuch (Pittsburgh) and Jordan Sheffield (Vanderbilt), plus high school hitters such as Georgians Josh Lowe and Will Benson.
17. Houston Astros- Cody Sedlock, Pitcher, Illinois: The Astros have only been attached to pitchers with this selection, so they’ll probably take an outfielder, because that’s how life works. But if they are serious about getting an arm—a strong possibility—and if Sedlock is off the board (also a strong possibility), they’ll look at guys like Louisville closer Zach Burdi or Pittsburgh righty T.J. Zeuch.
18. New York Yankees- Forrest Whitley, Pitcher, Alamo Heights HS (Texas): It looks like pitchers for New York and probably a high schooler. Anderson probably doesn't get by the Yankees, with Whitley, California right-hander Kevin Gowdy and Texas lefty Kyle Muller more likely to be available. TJ Zeuch could be the guy if New York goes the college route.
19. New York Mets- Will Craig, Third/First Baseman, Wake Forest: New York's interest in Craig is one of the worst-kept secrets this draft season. They're going college bat here unless all hell breaks lose in the first 18 picks. Craig is not the next quick riser like Michael Conforto, but he is the best college hitter on the board at this point. He hit .392/.537/.766 with 16 homers, 47 walks, and 33 steals this spring.
20. Los Angeles Dodgers- Joey Wentz, Pitcher, Shawnee Mission East HS (KS): Virginia's Matt Thais could be an option for the Dodgers here, as he fits their organizational needs perfectly. If he’s gone, they’ll look for some upside, and Wentz offers plenty of it, thanks to a big fastball and two quality offspeed pitchers.
21. Toronto Blue Jays- Taylor Trammell, Outfielder, Mount Paran Christian HS (GA): Most of my first 20 projected picks would represent close to a worst-case scenario for the Blue Jays in terms of players they like being gone and those they don't as much remaining on the board. If the best high school arms and Quantrill are unavailable, the supremely athletic Trammell could be the consolation prize.
22. Pittsburgh Pirates- Nolan Jones, Third Baseman, Holy Ghost Prep (PA): It might seem like the easy route to take, going with a Pennsylvania kid to the team in Pittsburgh. But there does seem to be interest in bringing Jones across the state and the Pirates certainly don't shy away from high school bats in the first round.
23. Saint Louis Cardinals- Zack Burdi, Pitcher, Louisville: Burdi's name was moving up boards as the Draft approached, as high as the top half of the first round. This seems like a much more reasonable landing spot. Burdi could get to the big leagues in a hurry out of the bullpen, but some feel he has the stuff to give starting a try.
Compensation Round A
24. San Diego Padres- Jordan Sheffield, Pitcher, Vanderbilt: The Padres take a break from aggressively pursuing upside to acquire some advanced pitching. Sheffield (6-feet tall, 185 pounds), isn't the biggest guy in the world, but he's thrown well for most of this season, for one of the best programs in the country (with a strong track record of producing professional pitchers).
25. San Diego Padres- Matt Manning, Pitcher, Sheldon High School (CAL): News of Manning's potential hefty price tag hasn't been a secret, a reported $5 million to give up playing basketball and baseball at Loyola Marymount. Many think teams with large bonus pools, such as the Phillies or Braves, are hoping Manning gets to them in the second round, but the Padres, with their three first-round picks, have the flexibility to potentially nab him before he gets there.
26. Chicago White Sox- Robert Tyler, Pitcher, Georgia: Tyler is one of the hardest throwers in the class, and he’ll show an above-average changeup as well, giving him a chance to be a fast-moving reliever or (maybe) a long-term starter if his breaking ball gets better. Gavin Lux, a lefty-swinging shortstop from Indian Trail Academy in Kenosha, Wis., is another name I’ve heard here.
27. Baltimore Orioles- Kyle Muller, Pitcher, Jesuit College Prep (TX): Baltimore could dip into any of the demographics -- college position player (Thaiss, Florida outfielder Buddy Reed), college pitcher (Burdi, Lauer), high school bat (Benson), high school arm (Muller).
28. Washington Nationals- Drew Mendoza, Third Baseman, Lake Minneola HS (FLA): His strong commitment to Florida State sounds like it will require an above-pick-value deal, but the Nats do have a pair of picks in the first round to play with.
29. Washington Nationals- Alec Hansen, Pitcher, Oklahoma: In the conversation to go No. 1 overall at the start of the spring, Hansen has seen his stock fall as much as any player in the country over the past few months. The Washington Nationals have a good track record of developing pitching and never shy away from taking a high-risk, high-reward chance on draft day, so Hansen could be a target.
30. Texas Rangers- Will Benson, Outfielder, The Westminster Schools (GA): Benson's tools intrigue many teams from the middle of the first round on, with the Rangers being a very possible landing spot. They certainly have not been afraid of taking high-ceiling, ultra-toolsy but a bit raw players in the past. The Padres and the Dodgers could also have interest.
31. New York Mets- Eric Lauer, Pitcher, Kent State: Every draft class has the “safe” lefty, a guy who isn’t going to need much time to develop in the system but doesn’t offer much upside. That’s what Lauer is, and that also describes Anthony Kay of UConn, another name I’ve heard the Mets are heavy on.
32. Los Angeles Dodgers- Bryan Reynolds, Outfielder, Vanderbilt: There are some swing-and-miss concerns, but Reynolds is a switch-hitter with four average-or-better tools, a chance to play center field and the highest OPS (1.067) in the Southeastern Conference. He's not generating a ton of first-round buzz but belongs in here somewhere.
33. Saint Louis Cardinals- Anthony Kay, Pitcher, Connecticut: Remember what I said about the safe lefty? The Cardinals have always loved those, and that’s why Kay (9–2, 2.65 ERA, 111 strikeouts in 119 innings) makes so much sense if he’s still on the board.
34. Saint Louis Cardinals- Buddy Reed, Outfielder, Florida: Reed's tools are undeniable and he is a premium athlete, one who is still relatively new to baseball. Whether he'll hit enough to use those tools consistently remains to be seen, but a team that thinks he can will take the chance.
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
2016 MLB Mock Draft: 3rd Edition
Here is my third edition of my 2016 MLB Mock Draft.
1. Philadelphia Phillies- Philadelphia Phillies- AJ Puk, Pitcher, Florida: The prevailing thinking has long been that Puk was the guy the Phils wanted to be the clear-cut choice at No. 1. One start doesn't make a decision, but his dominance in the SEC tournament against LSU could be all Philadelphia needed to cement a decision. High school lefty Jason Groome isn't out of the discussion and there are still bats -- Mickey Moniak on the high school front and Kyle Lewis from the college ranks are the main names mentioned -- still in play.
2. Cincinnati Reds- Nick Senzel, Third Baseman, Tennessee: Perhaps the most advanced bat in this Draft class, Senzel has closed strongly, swinging a hot bat as the Draft rapidly approaches. The Reds would have interest in Puk should the Phils go elsewhere, while Lewis and Puerto Rican high schooler Delvin Perez are still possibilities.
3. Atlanta Braves- Jason Groome, Pitcher, Barnegat HS (NJ): This makes too much sense. The Braves have understandably cast a wide net for this pick, but they're in heavy on this rebuild, so much so that they're willing to take on other team's bad contracts to acquire extra draft picks. (They ate the $3 million or so left on Brian Matusz's contract to get the 76th pick from the Orioles a few weeks ago.) Groome is widely considered the best prospect in the draft class thanks to a big fastball and a nasty breaking ball. He's too good for the Braves to pass up.
4. Colorado Rockies- Mickey Moniak, Outfielder, LA Costa Canyon HS (CAL): Moniak has upped his draft stock big time since the start of the spring and is now at least in the conversation for the top pick. The Rockies have had quite a bit of success developing position players -- it's not all Coors Field, folks -- over the years and they love not only loud tools, but baseball smarts.
5. Milwaukee Brewers- Corey Ray, Outfielder, Louisville: Based on how I have the top four picks shaking out, the Brewers would have their pick of the top two college bats in the class in Ray and Kyle Lewis. They've been more heavily connected to Ray, the draft's top power-speed threat. He's hit .319/.396/.562 with 15 homers and 44 steals in 62 games this season.
6. Oakland Raiders- Kyle Lewis, Outfielder, Mercer: Thanks to Moneyball, the A's are seen as a team that prefers college players to high schoolers. That hasn't always been the case though. They did take Addison Russell and Billy McKinney out of high school with their first-round picks in 2012 and 2013, respectively. That said, Lewis is the best player still on the board and arguably the best hitter in the draft class, so he's the guy. Lewis hit .395/.535/.731 with 20 homers, 66 strikeouts, and 48 walks in 61 games this season.
7. Miami Marlins- Braxton Garrett, Pitcher, Florence HS (ALA): Garrett has the highest floor among the prep pitchers, not to mention a lofty ceiling, and could be a better bet for long-term success as a starter than AJ Puk or Jason Groome. Riley Pint and Delvin Perez also would be in play if they're still on the board.
8. San Diego Padres- Riley Pint, Pitcher, Saint Thomas Aquinas HS (KS): Less risk averse than other clubs, San Diego strongly will consider all of the top prep arms, and Pint could be its preference if all of them were available. Perez is another possibility. The Padres are on Stanford right-hander Cal Quantrill, a top 10 talent who missed this season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and probably will have to take him here if they want him because it's increasingly unlikely that he gets to them at Nos. 24 or 25.
9. Detroit Tigers- Dakota Hudson, Pitcher, Mississippi State: The Tigers appear to be prime candidates to once again target an arm with the No. 9 overall pick. With all of the college pitchers still on the board outside of A.J. Puk, they'll go with right-hander Dakota Hudson out of Mississippi State. With a durable 6'5", 205-pound frame and a solid three-pitch repertoire that includes a plus slider with a chance to be plus-plus, Hudson looks the part of a future front-line starter.
10. Chicago White Sox- Matt Manning, Pitcher, Sheldon High School (CAL): There's no way Pint gets past Detroit. The consolation prize could be Manning, another flamethrowing high school right-hander and he would be a great selection here for Chicago.
11. Seattle Mariners- Justin Dunn, Pitcher, Boston College: The hottest Draft rumor right now is that Seattle is going to take Dunn, and we'll play along. If not Dunn, it could be Burdi or California high school outfielder Blake Rutherford, whose stock has dipped slightly since he entered the year as the top-ranked prep position player.
12. Boston Red Sox- Ian Anderson, Pitcher, Shenendehowa HS (NY): Given the opportunity, Boston would pounce on Garrett (the next few teams would love him as well) or Ray. Barring that, the Red Sox would have interest in Anderson; college arms Hudson, Burdi and Quantrill; Rutherford and Pennsylvania high school third baseman Nolan Jones.
13. Tampa Bay Rays- Blake Rutherford, Outfielder, Chaminade Prep High School (CAL): Tampa Bay appears to be the floor for Rutherford and the ceiling for Georgia third baseman/right-hander Josh Lowe, the Draft's best two-way talent. If the Rays go the college route, Hudson is a leading candidate.
14. Cleveland Indians- Zack Collins, Catcher, Miami (FL): Unless Garrett somehow lasts this long, which is virtually impossible, Cleveland will sort through bats such as Rutherford, Collins and Pennsylvania high schoolers Alex Kirilloff and Jones.
15. Minnesota Twins- Delvin Perez, Shortstop, International Baseball Academy (PR): This year's draft is historically thin on middle infield talent. Delvin Perez was the only lock to go in the first round among players who are expected to stick at the shortstop position. However, that all changed when a report surfaced Tuesday, per John Manuel and J.J. Cooper of Basemall America that Perez had tested positive for "an undisclosed performance enhancer" in his predraft drug test. So it should be interesting to see if Perez goes from a projected top five pick to further down the draft or not.
16. Los Angeles Angels- Alex Kirilloff, Outfielder, Plum HS (PA): While the Angels desperately need players that could help soon in Anaheim, especially on the mound, they’ve been tied to high school hitters for the last month, with numerous reports of GM Billy Eppler hitting the trail to get extra eyes on prep hitters in Georgia and the Southeast, but sticking with the Northeast makes sense for a team that struck gold with Mike Trout seven years ago.
17. Houston Astros- Zack Burdi, Pitcher, Louisville: Armed with a 100 mph fastball, there are those who feel he could jump straight to the majors as a bullpen arm down the stretch. For those with more patience, he may be able to transition to the rotation. Either way, he's going to go early for a college reliever.
18. New York Yankees- Forrest Whitley, Pitcher, Alamo Heights HS (Texas): There are mixed signals coming out of New York, which has interest in prep right-handers Anderson, Whitley and Kevin Gowdy from California. Other indications are that the Yankees may want a college bat such as Craig or Virginia catcher Matt Thaiss. Trammell is a dark horse here.
19. New York Mets- Will Craig, Third Baseman, Wake Forest: New York's interest in Craig is one of the worst-kept secrets this draft season. They're going college bat here unless all hell breaks lose in the first 18 picks. Craig is not the next quick riser like Michael Conforto, but he is the best college hitter on the board at this point. He hit .392/.537/.766 with 16 homers, 47 walks, and 33 steals this spring.
20. Los Angeles Dodgers- Jordan Shefflield, Pitcher, Vanderbilt: The thinking is that Los Angeles will pursue a high school position player and a college pitcher with its two first-rounders. If the Dodgers go for the latter here, Sheffield has the best pure stuff among the candidates. The better value might be to take Jones or Lux here -- neither will make it to No. 32 -- and wait on the college arm.
21. Toronto Blue Jays- Cal Quantrill, Pitcher, Stanford: After trading several pitchers last summer, Toronto can start replenishing its stock of arms with this choice. The Blue Jays wouldn't mind having one of the high school arms fall and also have Quantrill (whose father Paul pitched 14 seasons in the big leagues, six with Toronto) and Sheffield in their sights. If there's a massive run on pitching ahead of them, the Jays could go for Trammell, Lux or Jones.
22. Pittsburgh Pirates- TJ Zeuch, Pitcher, Pittsburgh: There's much more to this than the local connection (Zeuch is from the Cincinnati suburbs anyway). Zeuch is a monster on the mound at 6-foot-7 and his mechanics are surprisingly smooth for a player that size. He's got mid-90s gas, two breaking balls, and a work-in-progress changeup. Simply put, Zeuch offers the most upside of all the college starters still on the board. He has a 3.10 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings this spring.
23. Saint Louis Cardinals- Cody Sedlock, Pitcher, Illinois: The Cardinals are another team with extra picks after losing Lackey and Jason Heyward to free agency, holding the 23rd, 33rd, and 34th picks. Sedlock is the perfect St. Louis pick: He's polished, he has a deep arsenal, he's been healthy, and he figures to climb the minor-league ladder quickly. Sedlock had a 2.49 ERA with 116 strikeouts in 101 1/3 innings this season.
Compensation Round A
24. San Diego Padres- Nolan Jones, Third Baseman, Holy Ghost Prep (PA): Jones has a ton of power and he would be a fine selection here for the Padres. These next two selections are the floor for Quantrill and Jones.
25. San Diego Padres- Josh Lowe, Third Baseman, Pope HS (GA): Though multiple teams in the top 10 have scouted Lowe heavily, the consensus is that he's going in the 20s. Lux, Sedlock, Gowdy and Benson also could fit here. If San Diego needs to save money to accommodate over-slot signings, it could cut a deal with someone like Florida right-hander Dane Dunning, Georgia high school outfielder Brandon Marsh or Tennessee prep left-hander Ryan Rolison.
26. Chicago White Sox- Eric Lauer, Pitcher, Kent State: Lauer was nearly unhittable this season, steamrolling his way through Mid-American Conference competition. He'd be able to help on the South Side quicker than perhaps any other arm still on the board at this point, so this is a good move for the White Sox.
27. Baltimore Orioles- Will Benson, Outfielder, The Westminster Schools (GA): Burdi wouldn't get past Baltimore but is probably a pipe dream at No. 27. Barring someone else unexpectedly dropping, this could come down to Benson versus Thaiss or perhaps a college arm.
28. Washington Nationals- Drew Mendoza, Third Baseman, Lake Minneola HS (FLA): His strong commitment to Florida State sounds like it will require an above-pick-value deal, but the Nats do have a pair of picks in the first round to play with.
29. Washington Nationals- Alec Hansen, Pitcher, Oklahoma: In the conversation to go No. 1 overall at the start of the spring, Hansen has seen his stock fall as much as any player in the country over the past few months. The Washington Nationals have a good track record of developing pitching and never shy away from taking a high-risk, high-reward chance on draft day, so Hansen could be a target.
30. Texas Rangers- Taylor Trammell, Outfielder, Mount Paran Christian HS (GA): It's always a safe guess to give Texas a high-ceiling athlete, and Trammell certainly fits the bill as the Georgia Class A football player of the year. Other possibilities in that vein include Lowe, Benson and Florida outfielder Buddy Reed.
31. New York Mets- Bryan Reynolds, Outfielder, Vanderbilt: There are some swing-and-miss concerns, but Reynolds is a switch-hitter with four average-or-better tools, a chance to play center field and the highest OPS (1.067) in the Southeastern Conference. He's not generating a ton of first-round buzz but belongs in here somewhere.
32. Los Angeles Dodgers- Kyle Muller, Pitcher, Jesuit College Prep (TX): Los Angeles' plan to get a high school position player here could be foiled if there's a run on them between Nos. 20 and 32. No prepster has had a more impressive two-way season than Muller, and the Dodgers did pretty well the last time they signed a high school lefty from the Dallas area. You may have heard of Clayton Kershaw.
33. Saint Louis Cardinals- Robert Tyler, Pitcher, Georgia: Some of the players St. Louis will consider at No. 23 will be available 10 picks later. Additional college pitching candidates include right-handers Connor Jones (Virginia), Logan Shore (Florida) and Jon Duplantier (Rice) and lefty Anthony Kay (Connecticut).
34. Saint Louis Cardinals- Matt Thais, Catcher, Virginia: Other position players St. Louis could look at are high school third baseman Carter Kieboom (Georgia) and Cole Stobbe (Nebraska), Okey, Oklahoma shortstop Sheldon Neuse and Auburn outfielder Anfernee Grier.
1. Philadelphia Phillies- Philadelphia Phillies- AJ Puk, Pitcher, Florida: The prevailing thinking has long been that Puk was the guy the Phils wanted to be the clear-cut choice at No. 1. One start doesn't make a decision, but his dominance in the SEC tournament against LSU could be all Philadelphia needed to cement a decision. High school lefty Jason Groome isn't out of the discussion and there are still bats -- Mickey Moniak on the high school front and Kyle Lewis from the college ranks are the main names mentioned -- still in play.
2. Cincinnati Reds- Nick Senzel, Third Baseman, Tennessee: Perhaps the most advanced bat in this Draft class, Senzel has closed strongly, swinging a hot bat as the Draft rapidly approaches. The Reds would have interest in Puk should the Phils go elsewhere, while Lewis and Puerto Rican high schooler Delvin Perez are still possibilities.
3. Atlanta Braves- Jason Groome, Pitcher, Barnegat HS (NJ): This makes too much sense. The Braves have understandably cast a wide net for this pick, but they're in heavy on this rebuild, so much so that they're willing to take on other team's bad contracts to acquire extra draft picks. (They ate the $3 million or so left on Brian Matusz's contract to get the 76th pick from the Orioles a few weeks ago.) Groome is widely considered the best prospect in the draft class thanks to a big fastball and a nasty breaking ball. He's too good for the Braves to pass up.
4. Colorado Rockies- Mickey Moniak, Outfielder, LA Costa Canyon HS (CAL): Moniak has upped his draft stock big time since the start of the spring and is now at least in the conversation for the top pick. The Rockies have had quite a bit of success developing position players -- it's not all Coors Field, folks -- over the years and they love not only loud tools, but baseball smarts.
5. Milwaukee Brewers- Corey Ray, Outfielder, Louisville: Based on how I have the top four picks shaking out, the Brewers would have their pick of the top two college bats in the class in Ray and Kyle Lewis. They've been more heavily connected to Ray, the draft's top power-speed threat. He's hit .319/.396/.562 with 15 homers and 44 steals in 62 games this season.
6. Oakland Raiders- Kyle Lewis, Outfielder, Mercer: Thanks to Moneyball, the A's are seen as a team that prefers college players to high schoolers. That hasn't always been the case though. They did take Addison Russell and Billy McKinney out of high school with their first-round picks in 2012 and 2013, respectively. That said, Lewis is the best player still on the board and arguably the best hitter in the draft class, so he's the guy. Lewis hit .395/.535/.731 with 20 homers, 66 strikeouts, and 48 walks in 61 games this season.
7. Miami Marlins- Braxton Garrett, Pitcher, Florence HS (ALA): Garrett has the highest floor among the prep pitchers, not to mention a lofty ceiling, and could be a better bet for long-term success as a starter than AJ Puk or Jason Groome. Riley Pint and Delvin Perez also would be in play if they're still on the board.
8. San Diego Padres- Riley Pint, Pitcher, Saint Thomas Aquinas HS (KS): Less risk averse than other clubs, San Diego strongly will consider all of the top prep arms, and Pint could be its preference if all of them were available. Perez is another possibility. The Padres are on Stanford right-hander Cal Quantrill, a top 10 talent who missed this season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and probably will have to take him here if they want him because it's increasingly unlikely that he gets to them at Nos. 24 or 25.
9. Detroit Tigers- Dakota Hudson, Pitcher, Mississippi State: The Tigers appear to be prime candidates to once again target an arm with the No. 9 overall pick. With all of the college pitchers still on the board outside of A.J. Puk, they'll go with right-hander Dakota Hudson out of Mississippi State. With a durable 6'5", 205-pound frame and a solid three-pitch repertoire that includes a plus slider with a chance to be plus-plus, Hudson looks the part of a future front-line starter.
10. Chicago White Sox- Matt Manning, Pitcher, Sheldon High School (CAL): There's no way Pint gets past Detroit. The consolation prize could be Manning, another flamethrowing high school right-hander and he would be a great selection here for Chicago.
11. Seattle Mariners- Justin Dunn, Pitcher, Boston College: The hottest Draft rumor right now is that Seattle is going to take Dunn, and we'll play along. If not Dunn, it could be Burdi or California high school outfielder Blake Rutherford, whose stock has dipped slightly since he entered the year as the top-ranked prep position player.
12. Boston Red Sox- Ian Anderson, Pitcher, Shenendehowa HS (NY): Given the opportunity, Boston would pounce on Garrett (the next few teams would love him as well) or Ray. Barring that, the Red Sox would have interest in Anderson; college arms Hudson, Burdi and Quantrill; Rutherford and Pennsylvania high school third baseman Nolan Jones.
13. Tampa Bay Rays- Blake Rutherford, Outfielder, Chaminade Prep High School (CAL): Tampa Bay appears to be the floor for Rutherford and the ceiling for Georgia third baseman/right-hander Josh Lowe, the Draft's best two-way talent. If the Rays go the college route, Hudson is a leading candidate.
14. Cleveland Indians- Zack Collins, Catcher, Miami (FL): Unless Garrett somehow lasts this long, which is virtually impossible, Cleveland will sort through bats such as Rutherford, Collins and Pennsylvania high schoolers Alex Kirilloff and Jones.
15. Minnesota Twins- Delvin Perez, Shortstop, International Baseball Academy (PR): This year's draft is historically thin on middle infield talent. Delvin Perez was the only lock to go in the first round among players who are expected to stick at the shortstop position. However, that all changed when a report surfaced Tuesday, per John Manuel and J.J. Cooper of Basemall America that Perez had tested positive for "an undisclosed performance enhancer" in his predraft drug test. So it should be interesting to see if Perez goes from a projected top five pick to further down the draft or not.
16. Los Angeles Angels- Alex Kirilloff, Outfielder, Plum HS (PA): While the Angels desperately need players that could help soon in Anaheim, especially on the mound, they’ve been tied to high school hitters for the last month, with numerous reports of GM Billy Eppler hitting the trail to get extra eyes on prep hitters in Georgia and the Southeast, but sticking with the Northeast makes sense for a team that struck gold with Mike Trout seven years ago.
17. Houston Astros- Zack Burdi, Pitcher, Louisville: Armed with a 100 mph fastball, there are those who feel he could jump straight to the majors as a bullpen arm down the stretch. For those with more patience, he may be able to transition to the rotation. Either way, he's going to go early for a college reliever.
18. New York Yankees- Forrest Whitley, Pitcher, Alamo Heights HS (Texas): There are mixed signals coming out of New York, which has interest in prep right-handers Anderson, Whitley and Kevin Gowdy from California. Other indications are that the Yankees may want a college bat such as Craig or Virginia catcher Matt Thaiss. Trammell is a dark horse here.
19. New York Mets- Will Craig, Third Baseman, Wake Forest: New York's interest in Craig is one of the worst-kept secrets this draft season. They're going college bat here unless all hell breaks lose in the first 18 picks. Craig is not the next quick riser like Michael Conforto, but he is the best college hitter on the board at this point. He hit .392/.537/.766 with 16 homers, 47 walks, and 33 steals this spring.
20. Los Angeles Dodgers- Jordan Shefflield, Pitcher, Vanderbilt: The thinking is that Los Angeles will pursue a high school position player and a college pitcher with its two first-rounders. If the Dodgers go for the latter here, Sheffield has the best pure stuff among the candidates. The better value might be to take Jones or Lux here -- neither will make it to No. 32 -- and wait on the college arm.
21. Toronto Blue Jays- Cal Quantrill, Pitcher, Stanford: After trading several pitchers last summer, Toronto can start replenishing its stock of arms with this choice. The Blue Jays wouldn't mind having one of the high school arms fall and also have Quantrill (whose father Paul pitched 14 seasons in the big leagues, six with Toronto) and Sheffield in their sights. If there's a massive run on pitching ahead of them, the Jays could go for Trammell, Lux or Jones.
22. Pittsburgh Pirates- TJ Zeuch, Pitcher, Pittsburgh: There's much more to this than the local connection (Zeuch is from the Cincinnati suburbs anyway). Zeuch is a monster on the mound at 6-foot-7 and his mechanics are surprisingly smooth for a player that size. He's got mid-90s gas, two breaking balls, and a work-in-progress changeup. Simply put, Zeuch offers the most upside of all the college starters still on the board. He has a 3.10 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings this spring.
23. Saint Louis Cardinals- Cody Sedlock, Pitcher, Illinois: The Cardinals are another team with extra picks after losing Lackey and Jason Heyward to free agency, holding the 23rd, 33rd, and 34th picks. Sedlock is the perfect St. Louis pick: He's polished, he has a deep arsenal, he's been healthy, and he figures to climb the minor-league ladder quickly. Sedlock had a 2.49 ERA with 116 strikeouts in 101 1/3 innings this season.
Compensation Round A
24. San Diego Padres- Nolan Jones, Third Baseman, Holy Ghost Prep (PA): Jones has a ton of power and he would be a fine selection here for the Padres. These next two selections are the floor for Quantrill and Jones.
25. San Diego Padres- Josh Lowe, Third Baseman, Pope HS (GA): Though multiple teams in the top 10 have scouted Lowe heavily, the consensus is that he's going in the 20s. Lux, Sedlock, Gowdy and Benson also could fit here. If San Diego needs to save money to accommodate over-slot signings, it could cut a deal with someone like Florida right-hander Dane Dunning, Georgia high school outfielder Brandon Marsh or Tennessee prep left-hander Ryan Rolison.
26. Chicago White Sox- Eric Lauer, Pitcher, Kent State: Lauer was nearly unhittable this season, steamrolling his way through Mid-American Conference competition. He'd be able to help on the South Side quicker than perhaps any other arm still on the board at this point, so this is a good move for the White Sox.
27. Baltimore Orioles- Will Benson, Outfielder, The Westminster Schools (GA): Burdi wouldn't get past Baltimore but is probably a pipe dream at No. 27. Barring someone else unexpectedly dropping, this could come down to Benson versus Thaiss or perhaps a college arm.
28. Washington Nationals- Drew Mendoza, Third Baseman, Lake Minneola HS (FLA): His strong commitment to Florida State sounds like it will require an above-pick-value deal, but the Nats do have a pair of picks in the first round to play with.
29. Washington Nationals- Alec Hansen, Pitcher, Oklahoma: In the conversation to go No. 1 overall at the start of the spring, Hansen has seen his stock fall as much as any player in the country over the past few months. The Washington Nationals have a good track record of developing pitching and never shy away from taking a high-risk, high-reward chance on draft day, so Hansen could be a target.
30. Texas Rangers- Taylor Trammell, Outfielder, Mount Paran Christian HS (GA): It's always a safe guess to give Texas a high-ceiling athlete, and Trammell certainly fits the bill as the Georgia Class A football player of the year. Other possibilities in that vein include Lowe, Benson and Florida outfielder Buddy Reed.
31. New York Mets- Bryan Reynolds, Outfielder, Vanderbilt: There are some swing-and-miss concerns, but Reynolds is a switch-hitter with four average-or-better tools, a chance to play center field and the highest OPS (1.067) in the Southeastern Conference. He's not generating a ton of first-round buzz but belongs in here somewhere.
32. Los Angeles Dodgers- Kyle Muller, Pitcher, Jesuit College Prep (TX): Los Angeles' plan to get a high school position player here could be foiled if there's a run on them between Nos. 20 and 32. No prepster has had a more impressive two-way season than Muller, and the Dodgers did pretty well the last time they signed a high school lefty from the Dallas area. You may have heard of Clayton Kershaw.
33. Saint Louis Cardinals- Robert Tyler, Pitcher, Georgia: Some of the players St. Louis will consider at No. 23 will be available 10 picks later. Additional college pitching candidates include right-handers Connor Jones (Virginia), Logan Shore (Florida) and Jon Duplantier (Rice) and lefty Anthony Kay (Connecticut).
34. Saint Louis Cardinals- Matt Thais, Catcher, Virginia: Other position players St. Louis could look at are high school third baseman Carter Kieboom (Georgia) and Cole Stobbe (Nebraska), Okey, Oklahoma shortstop Sheldon Neuse and Auburn outfielder Anfernee Grier.
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