Saturday, March 22, 2014

2014 MLB Predictions

Here are all of my 2014 MLB Predictions. Division winners, wild cards, World Series, awards, and more!

*Wild Card

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox (95-67): Most of the people from the defending champs return for another year. Their biggest priority this offseason was to bring back Mike Napoli and they sure did. I like what Gardy Seizmore is doing this spring so far and he should have a nice impact on this team. I love Xander Boegarts and the expectations are very high for him. I don't think replacing Jarrod Saltalamaachia with AJ Pierzynski is a bad move at all. The starting pitching and bullpen is solid so that shouldn't be an issue. So, expect another division title with this bunch once again.

2. New York Yankees (92-70)*: The clear cut winners of the offseason were the Yankees. Yes, they lost Robinson Cano and Mariano Rivera retired, I love all the big additions they made this offseason. Brian McCann will make a huge impact not only behind the plate but in the lineup as well. Jacoby Ellsbury is an excellent lead off hitter and if he stays healthy, he should be great. Carlos Beltran is not only going to have an impact on the field with his hitting but in the locker room too. Masahiro Tanaka only makes the starting rotation better. Derek Jeter's retirement tour will be even better than Rivera's. Don't forget that Alex Rodriguez isn't playing this season so there shouldn't be any problems whatsoever. Expect them to grab the first wild card spot.

3. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72)*: The Rays made some underrated offseason moves that not a lot of people are talking about. They upgraded at catcher with Ryan Hanigan and at closer with Grant Balfour. I think Evan Longoria has a big season especially with Wil Myers batting behind him. Their strength is clearly pitching and that's what makes them so successful. Their bullpen should be much
better now as well. I don't think Jeremy Hillickson's injury is a big deal because of how good their rotation is. Expect them to grab the second wild card spot.

4. Baltimore Orioles (84-78): Even with the signings of Ubaldo Jiminez and Nelson Cruz, I don't see the O's making the playoffs this season. Don't get me wrong, this is a decent team but other teams in the American League have made more significant improvements. I'm just not sold on their bullpen and the back end of their rotation. Their offense is outstanding but I do not like that Manny Machado suffered a set back and that's a huge blow. Expect Chris Davis to take a step back but for Adam Jones to have a great season.

5. Toronto Blue Jays (75-87): So much for all that hype last March, huh? While many picked this team to win, they failed to meet expectations, big time. Their pitching is not great, the offense is solid with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion and it would not shock me if they make a trade at the deadline for pitching. There is no way they finish higher than 5th.

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers (96-66): The Tigers are clearly the best team in this division and they are also the best team in the American League. Despite trading Doug Fister, the pitching staff is still outstanding with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez in there and by the way, it wouldn't shock me if any of those three won the Cy-Young award. They improved their bullpen by signing Joe Nathan and I love that move. Yes they traded Prince Fielder but Ian Kinsler is a nice pick up. Expect big numbers for Miguel Cabrera again and a division crown too.

2. Kansas City Royals (86-76): The Royals made some nice offseason moves and this is the trendy pick for who will be "that team" like the 2013 Pirates. I like the Norichika Aoki and Omar Infante pick ups and the rest of the offense is underrated. James Shields is in a contract year so I'm expecting a big season from him. Greg Holland is a solid closer but the rest of the pitching staff and bullpen
worries me. Expect the Royals to fall a bit short of expectations this season.

3. Cleveland Indians (82-80): The Indians had a great season last year. I just am not a fan of their offseason moves and they have a worse team than they did a year ago. It wouldn't surprise me if Justin Masterson is dealt this summer because it doesn't seem like the Indians and him didn't agree to one yet. The offense is mediocre at best with a ton of strikeout prone players. Expect this team to take a step back this season.

4. Chicago White Sox (73-89): The future is certainly bright on the North side of the Windy City. I consider this team the "best rebuilding team" in baseball this season. I love the fact that they'll build around the likes of Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, and of course Chris Sale, who I expect to have a big season. This team is years away from contention obviously but I love the direction this franchise is heading.

5. Minnesota Twins (68-94): It's going to be a long year in Minnesota. I am not a fan of their offseason moves, which they signed two mediocre pitchers in Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. Aside from Joe Mauer, their offense is not great. Their top prospect Byron Buxton is out for the year with having Tommy John surgery recently. So, expect another rough year in Minnesota.

AL West

1. Texas Rangers (93-69): This is a World Series or bust year for the Rangers. After trading for Prince Fielder and signing Shin-Soo Choo, you know their all in for it. Trading Ian Kinsler opens the door for Jurickson Profar to slide into 2nd base. The Derek Holland injury is a blow for the first part of the season but this lineup and the rest of the pitching staff should be able to recover from that. Their bullpen is underrated, even though they lost Joe Nathan. Expect big years from Adrian Beltre and Yu
Darvish and division crown.

2. Oakland Athletics (86-76): Everyone looks at the A's with expectations now that they've proved that they're no fluke with division crowns in the last two seasons. Two huge blows to the pitching staff have came about with Jarrod Parker being out the year and AJ Griffin being out for the first month of the season. Expect Yoenis Cespedes bounces back and Josh Donaldson to take a step back. Also, expect Sonny Gray to have an impact on the starting rotation. Health costs the A's a playoff berth this season.

3. Los Angeles Angels (79-83): Yes, Mike Trout is outstanding but the rest of the team is mediocre and old. Trout is the only reason why people look at the Angels with expectations. Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver, and CJ Wilson are all shells of themselves and they showed it last season. I do like the trade for David Freese but he is mediocre at best. Trout will put up his numbers, but the teams record and supporting cast will cost him the honors once again.

4. Seattle Mariners (74-88): Getting Robinson Cano in free agency doesn't mean you win free agency. Cano improves the offense but the rest of the lineup is not great. They do have solid pitching but their bullpen is mediocre. Hisashi Iwakuma is injured to start the season and expectations are high for rookie Taijuan Walker, who could also miss the start of the season. So, expect the Mariners starting pitching to be good but not the offense aside from Cano.

5. Houston Astros (56-106): It's a lock that the Astros will have the worst record in the league once again. The future is bright, but it's going to be a while. Scott Feldman is mediocre at best and Jesse Crain is solid in the bullpen. Jason Castro and Jose Altuve are solid players to build around and expectations for top prospect George Springer, who'll start the season in the minors, are high. Expect this team to be the worst once again while the farm system keeps producing.

NL East

1. Washington Nationals (93-69): The Nationals were the biggest disappointment of the league last season and it wasn't even close. They got much better this offseason by trading for Doug Fister and with most of this core from last year back and healthy, expect a big season in D.C. I like the Nate McClouth pickup and that was an underrated move. The starting rotation with Fister, is arguably the best in baseball now. The offense is outstanding as well. Expect big years from Jordan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper with a division crown.

2. Atlanta Braves (91-71)*: Many people are down on the Braves now that some of their starting pitchers are out for the year. The Ervin Santana pick up was huge now that Brandon Beachy and Kris Melden are out. Big seasons from Craig Kimbrel, who is the best closer in the baseball now that Rivera retired, Freddie Freeman, Julio Terehan, and a few others will lead this team to a wild card berth.

3. New York Mets (75-87): This record prediction would be higher if Matt Harvey didn't get hurt. I do like the Curtis Granderson pick up because they needed to make a move, but they definitely overpaid for him. The Bartolo Colon pick up was smart because of the Harvey injury, but I don't like that contract either. I am curious to see if they move either Ike Davis or Lucas Duda, but we shall see. Expect Noah Syndergaard to be called up this season to join Zach Wheeler, Jon Niese (when he comes back from injury), Dillon Gee, and Colon in this solid rotation. Also expect David Wright to have a big year with Granderson batting behind him.

4. Philadelphia Phillies (74-88): It will be a long season in Philadelphia. A team that's contention window that clearly closed and is in serious need of a rebuild. No one knows what Rueben Amaro Jr was doing when he signed aging veterans such as AJ Burnett, Marlon Byrd, and Carlos Ruiz to multi-year contracts. If all the aging former stars such as Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Ryan Howard stay healthy, there's a chance they can finish around 500, but I doubt that. Expect this aging team to make moves come July.

5. Miami Marlins (69-93): Sure, expectations are high for Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez, but the rest of the team is not great. The Jarrod Saltalamaachia pickup was questionable as were the Casey McGhee and Raphael Furcal signings. I do like their young prospects but their years away. Expect another last place season in south beach.

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals (97-65): The reigning National League champions, come into this season as the best team in baseball. There is no clear weakness on this team and that's what makes them the team to beat in the league. Former World Series hero David Freese was dealt to move Matt Carpenter to 3rd and rookie Kolten Wong to 2nd. The rest of the offense is great and the pitching staff is outstanding. Big seasons from Yadier Molina, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainright, and others lead to another division title.

2. Cincinnati Reds (85-77): Losing Bronson Arroyo and Shin-Soo Choo are gigantic blows to this team. This team did not do much in free agency and that will eventually get to them and will cost them a playoff berth. Sure, Joey Votto is an elite player, but players such as Jay Bruce and Ryan Ludwick are hit or miss. Another gigantic blow is losing Aroldis Chapman to a broken face when being hit with a line drive. So, expect the Reds to take a step back.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates (84-78): The Pirates were the story of the 2013 season due to breaking their long postseason drought. But there will not be a repeat. Marlon Byrd, AJ Burnett, and Justin Morneau are all elsewhere and their were key parts of that run. Andrew McCutchen is one of the games elite players but the rest of the position players are mediocre. Gerrit Cole is a pitcher on the rise, but the rest of the staff is mediocre. Expect this team to take a step back after a magical year.

4. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85): This team is one of the trendy picks for one of the National league wild card spots, but I don't buy it. Yes, I do think Ryan Braun could be a candidate for National League Comeback Player of the Year if he proves that he can hit without cheating. I'm really not sold on the pitching staff. I think their offense is underrated, so they'll put runs on the board, but again, it's the pitching staff that I don't buy.

5. Chicago Cubs (66-96): Sure, the future is bright on the south side of the windy, but it will be a long season of developing their young players. I do think Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo are solid players to build around and I do like their other prospects that they have. Jeff Samardzija is on the trading block, but the rest of the pitching staff is mediocre at best. So, it will be exciting to see the young players develop on this team, but expect another long season.

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (94-68): The class of this division is clearly the Dodgers. One of the best pitching staffs in baseball, especially with the best pitcher in the game with Clayton Kershaw leading the charge. Their offense is outstanding with Matt Kemp (coming back from injury), Adrian Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig, and others. I do wonder if they make a trade with one of the outfielders (that's not Puig) being the trade bait. So, expect the Dodgers to win the NL West once again.

2. San Francisco Giants (89-73)*: One of the most disappointing teams last season who were the World Series champions two years ago, are due for a bounce back season. I do like the Tim Hudson pick up and I expect Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum to have bounce back seasons. Their offense is underrated with the likes of Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval in that lineup. So, expect a nice bounce back season and a wild card berth for this team.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77): Even though I don't think the D-Backs will make the playoffs, I do like their off-season moves. Mark Trumbo gives Paul Goldschmidt protection in the lineup and this offense is capable of putting runs on the board. I also wonder if they trade one of their shortstops to upgrade at catcher. The Patrick Crobin injury is a gigantic blow to this pitching staff. The bullpen has some question marks, but Addison Reed is a solid closer. Expect this team to fall short of expectations, but Paul Goldschmidt will continue to play at the level he did a year ago.

4. Colorado Rockies (75-87): The Rockies are one of those teams that health is the biggest part of what their capable of doing this season. For me, I find their offense to be great (when healthy) but their pitching is mediocre. I do like the Boone Logan pick up to improve their bullpen though, but I don't like that they traded Dexter Fowler away. I do wonder if they trade some of their players to get younger. But expect the offense to jack up runs but the pitching to struggle.

5. San Diego Padres (74-88): The NL West division was the hardest to predict since any of the Giants, D-Backs, Rockies, and Padres can finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th. The Padres have many question marks about who can stay healthy or not. I do think Josh Johnson is a good pickup for a mediocre pitching staff. I expect Chase Headley to have a big season since he's in a contract year. I also wonder if this team makes a move come July. Expect a very narrow last place finish.

Playoff predictions:
Wild Card games: Yankees over Rays; Giants over Braves
ALDS: Tigers over Yankees; Rangers over Red Sox
NLDS: Cardinals over Giants; Dodgers over Nationals
ALCS: Tigers over Rangers
NLCS: Cardinals over Dodgers
World Series: Cardinals over Tigers

Award Predictions
AL MVP: Adrian Beltre- Rangers
NL MVP: Yadier Molina- Cardinals
AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish- Rangers
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw- Dodgers
AL Rookie of the Year: Xander Boegarts- Red Sox
NL Rookie of the Year: Archie Bradley- Diamondbacks
AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon- Rays
NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy- Giants
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Mark Teixeira- Yankees
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Matt Kemp- Dodgers

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