Friday, April 13, 2018

2018 NBA Playoffs: Quarterfinals Predictions

Here are my predictions for the Quarterfinals for the 2018 NBA Playoffs.

Eastern Conference
(1) Toronto Raptors vs (8) Washington Wizards: These two teams met in 2015 and the Wiz swept the Raps and these two teams are entirely different (and better) now. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have been one of the leagues best backcourts as well as the Wiz backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Raps have the better front court with Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valenciunas over the Wizards' Markeiff Morris and Marcin Gortat. Kelly Obrue and Otto Porter have to be very good if the Wiz want to win this series and the Wiz just lost Jodie Meeks for the playoffs due to a 25 game suspension  due to violating the leagues anti-drug problem. OG Anouby has been a nice player for the Raps this season and should start for them and Fred Van Vleet has been a nice bench piece for the Raps. This should be a fun competitive series and I like the Raps to advance and the Raps have a coaching advantage too.
Prediction: Raptors in six games.

(2) Boston Celtics vs (7) Milwaukee Bucks: Too bad Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward are out with injuries or else the Celtics would have a legit shot to make the finals. They do still have talent that is healthy with a Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown in the backcourt and Al Horford and Aaron Baynes in the frontcourt. The best player in this series will be Giannis Antetokounmpo, who may be a top 10 MVP candidate this season. He and John Henson are a solid frontcourt and Eric Bledsoe is good at the point. Tony Snell and Khris Middleton are decent on the wing and can shoot 3's and Malcolm Brogdon, Thon Maker, and Jabari Parker can have impacts off the bench. The Celtics absolutely need to have Brown and Jayson Tatum to be great if they are to advance and they need Marcus Smart to come back from injury. That said, due to the Celtics injuries, I like Antetokounmpo to lead the Bucks to an upset although I don't feel great about it.
Prediction: Bucks in six games.

(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs (6) Miami Heat: This is certainly the best series in the East side of the first round. The Sixers story has been amazing this season going from the league laughing stock to the leagues darling team. Ben Simmons is just incredible as he's the Rookie of the Year favorite. Joel Embiid should be back for this series (but he is missing game 1) and he and Dario Saric are a very good front court. Robert Covington and JJ Redick are great on the wing as well. Philly's X-factor in this game is Markelle Fultz, who's been really good for them since he came back from injury. Amir Johnson, Marco Bellineli, and Ersan Illaysova have been solid bench players for the Sixers the last few weeks as well. The Heat are back in the playoffs after a one year absence. Hassan Whiteside appears to be healthy and he'll be protecting the rim and getting rebounds in this series. Goran Dragic is solid at the point and has played well in big games in the past. Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson are solid on the wing. The Heat have a hunch of wild card players such as James Johnson and Justice Winslow and Dwayne Wade is back after being traded back to Miami. Kelly Olynyk is an improved player on the Heat as well. This has seven written all over it and give me the upstart Sixers as Embiid comes back and is the stud that he is.
Prediction: Sixers in seven games.

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (5) Indiana Pacers: The Cavs have had a tumultuous season from injuries to trades to their coach having health issues, but LeBron James should absolutely be the MVP this season. Kevin Love has looked good since coming back from injury. George Hill can up his game at the point come this time of year. Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, and JR Smith have to be hitting shots for them if the Cavs want to make the finals. Tristian Thompson hasn't been good this season part silly due to health, but he's capable of a double-double. The Pacers have been the leagues biggest surprise this season led by Victor Oladipo, who's the lesgues most improved player and he's been great on both ends of the floor. Myles Turner and Thad Young is a solid front court and Darren Collison isn't bad at the point. Lance Stephenson is their wild card due to what he's capable of doing if he's focused. Domontas Sabonis is a solid player for them as well off the bench. The Cavs (sans their awful defense) they are the better team led by LeBron and they'll win a short and competitive series.
Prediction: Cavaliers in five games.

Western Conference
(1) Houston Rockets vs (8) Minnesota Timberwolves: The Rockets have been the leagues best team this season led by the dynamic backcourt of MVP favorite James Harden and Chris Paul and the pressure is clearly on them and Mike D'Antoni. Clint Capela has emerged as a good center in this league and guys like Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza, and PJ Tucker have been solid for them this season. They did lose Luc Mbah A Moute with a fractured shoulder though. The Timberwolves are finally in the playoffs and it took them until the final day of the regular season to clinch a spot. Jimmy Butler has proven to be one of the better offseason acquisitions as he was an MVP candidate before he got hurt. Karl-Anthony Towns took his game to another level after Butler got hurt. Andrew Wiggins has not been great, but has hit big shots for them. Jeff Teague is solid at the point and Taj Gibson has been a great vet for them this season too. The bench has solid guys in Jamal Crawford, Tyus Jones, and Nemanja Bjelica. That said, the Rockets are the better team and the loss of Mbah A Moute won't hurt as much in this round.
Prediction: Rockets in five games.

(2) Golden State Warriors vs (7) San Antonio Spurs: This would have been a much more compelling series if both Kawhi Leonard and Steph Curry were healthy and playing (especially Leonard). Warriors won't have Curry for this round, but they still have Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant that are capable of big scoring games and they have Draymond Green protecting the rim. Jordan Bell has been a fine player for them this season and he should be their starting center over Zaza Pachulia. Bell, Andre Igoudala, David West, and Nick Young are capable of having an impact off the bench and the loss of Patrick McCaw will hurt them. The Spurs will certainly miss Leonard in this series as they'll rely heavily on LaMarcus Aldridge in this series to provide scoring. Dejounte Murray has been solid running the point this season and Patty Mills is now starting at the other guard spot for them as Danny Green comes off the bench now. Pau Gasol still gets his buckets and boards, but his game has declined the last few seasons. Guys like Green, Kyle Anderson, and Rudy Gay have to step up for the Spurs if they want to upset the Curry-less Warriors. If Leonard was healthy, I would have taken the upset, but nope. Give me the Dubs in what I think will be a short, but competitive series.
Prediction: Warriors in five games.

(3) Portland Trail Blazer vs (6) New Orleans Pelicans: This series is a sleeping giant out west that I don't think is getting enough attention. The Blazers closed out the regular season very well led by their great backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Al Fariqu Aminu has been underrated good for them in the frontcourt and been shooting well from 3. Jusuf Nurkic has been disappointing this season after playing great all around after they traded for him last season. Their bench isn't great, but they have solid players such as Shabazz Napier and Zach Collins. The Pelicans somehow made the playoffs after losing DeMarcus Cousins for the season and that's because of the MVP-level play of Anthony Davis, who is a flat out stud. Jrue Holliday has been really good at the point on both ends and so has Rajon Rondo, who seems to be rejuvenated. E'Twaun Moore has been great for them on the wing and can shoot the 3 ball well. Nikola Mirotic is an X-factor due to his ability to get hot from 3 and ability to space the floor with Davis. The Pelicans have the worst bench out of the 16 playoff teams and it features guys like Ian Clark and Dante Cunningham, who probably would not be seeing playing time on one of the better teams. That said, because of the dynamic backcourt and the teams ability to hit 3's give me the Blazers in a closer and longer series than people think due to Davis being the best player in the series and his ability to win games by himself.
Prediction: Trail Blazers in seven games.

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (5) Utah Jazz: Here has the makings of a great series with a ton talent on both sides. The Thunder have had a strange season with a ton of great wins and a lot of head scratching losses, but yet again Russell Westbrook averaged a triple double on the season. Paul George has been a little erratic for them of late, but has had some big games in big spots this season and is a great two-way player. Carmelo Anthony is a player that's shown decline this season, but I won't be surprised if he's rejuvenated in the playoffs. Steven Adams is one of the better true centers in the league and he's played well in playoff games. Corey Brewer has been a nice trade deadline add for the Thunder and guys like Terrance Ferguson and Patrick Peterson are capable of having impacts off the bench. The Jazz deserve a ton of credit, written off by many in the middle of the season as they looked to be headed to the lottery, are here in the playoffs and could have had home court in the first round if they won their final regular season game. Rudy Gobert is a stud that can rebound and block shots and if he didn't miss time, the Jazz would have been the 3-seed for sure. Donovan Mitchell will be the Rookie of the Year runner up as he was phenomenal this season. Joe Ingles is one of the more improved all around players in the league. Ricky Rubio has been very good in the second half of the season and so has Derrick Favors. Their bench is full of solid guys such as Jae Crowder, Jonas Jerebko, and Alec Burks. An X-factor for the Jazz could be Dante Exum, who's had some moments recently. That said, this screams seven games and with the great home court advantage, give me the Thunder as Westbrook will probably average a triple-double.
PredictionThunder in seven games.

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