Tuesday, September 2, 2014

2014 NFL Predictions

Here are my predictions for the 2014 NFL Season with predicted order of finish in divisions with predicted records, division winners, playoffs, and a Super Bowl winner. My NFL Awards predictions column is coming soon.

* = Wild Card team

AFC East
1. New England Patriots (12-4): New England is the class of it's division and it's not even close. This team is one of the more improved teams in the league, especially with the addition of cornerback Darelle Revis. Revis makes this secondary one of the leagues best if players like safety Devin McCourty step up to their capability. Quarterback Tom Brady will bounce back from what most people would call a down year for him a year ago and it would be huge for this team if wide receiver Danny Amendola and tight end Rob Gronkowski can stay on the field for a full season. Expect your typical New England regular season performance with yet another division crown.

2. New York Jets (8-8): The Jets have made some nice improvements on the offensive side of the ball this offseason by adding backup quarterback Michael Vick, running back Chris Johnson, and wide receiver Eric Decker. The Vick signing was obvious incase second-year quarterback Geno Smith either struggles out of the gate or gets injured. The secondary of the Jets is shaky with second-year cornerback Dee Milliner coming back from a sprained ankle, who head coach Rex Ryan is hopeful Milliner can come back for week one, and cornerback Dexter McDougle is out for the season with a torn ACL. The defensive front of the Jets is excellent with defensive ends Sheldon Richardson and Mo Wilkerson leading the way. If things go right, the Jets can make the playoffs and if things go wrong, expect Ryan to be on the hot seat.

3. Miami Dolphins (7-9): Miami did a nice job this offseason revamping the offensive line, which
was a disaster last season. Many people expect third-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill to make the leap this season, which is possible. Tannehill's weapons such as overpaid wide receiver Mike Wallace and overachieving wide receiver Brian Hartline need to step up in order for Tannehill's impending leap to happen. The Miami defense is in decent shape for now with defensive end Dion Jordan coming back week 5 after a four game suspension. This team could be a sleeper playoff team or else head coach Joe Philbin will be fired after seasons end.

4. Buffalo Bills (5-11): Buffalo is doing a nice job in the rebuilding process that seems like it's been going on for a while now. Second-year quarterback EJ Manuel had an injury-plagued rookie season that saw inconsistency. Manuel has help now with rookie wide out Sammy Watkins, who has a lot of promise. Running back CJ Spiller has been a fantasy bust for some time now and he needs to step up his game. The Buffalo defense is worse than people think with safety Jarius Byrd out of town and linebacker Kiko Alonso out for the season with a torn ACL. Expect another long season in Buffalo.

AFC North
1. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6): Cincinnati made nice improvements on both sides of the ball this offseason by drafting cornerback Darqueze Dennard in the first round and drafting running back Jeremy Hill in the second round. Quarterback Andy Dalton singed a long term contract extension that kicks in next season. Dalton needs to show that he can stay consistent and that he can win a playoff game. His offensive weapons such as wide receivers AJ Green and Mohammed Sanu can certainly help that case. The defense is solid with defensive tackle Geno Atkins coming back from injury. Expect a division crown for the second straight year in Cincinnati.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)*: Pittsburgh quietly had a nice offseason by getting younger, making some under-the-radar free argent signings, and drafting most of their needs. Quarterback Ben Rothlisberger is entering a critical season of his career in a standpoint of how many prime years he has left. Running backs Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount will help the offense along with wide outs Antonio Brown and breakout candidate Markus Wheaton. Rookie linebacker Ryan Shazier is a candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year and the rest of the defense is better than people expect. Expect Pittsburgh to get the final Wild Card spot in the AFC.

3. Baltimore Ravens (9-7): Baltimore had a wild offseason in a standpoint of that they made good pickups and retained important players, but then there was the Ray Rice situation that led to a two game suspension for domestic violence. Quarterback Joe Flacco looks to bounce back from a disappointing season a year ago and new wide receiver Steve Smith should help out that case. Tight end Dennis Pitta should be healthy for a full season in order for Flacco to bounce back. On the defensive side, rookie linebacker CJ Mosley is another candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year, but veteran linebacker Terrell Suggs is another year older. Expect Baltimore to stay in contention all season, but fall just short.

4. Cleveland Browns (5-11): All eyes in Cleveland in a football standpoint will be on when rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel gets to see regular season NFL action. Quarterback Brian Hoyer won the starting job over Manziel, which most people expected. Cleveland failed to draft a wide receiver within the first few rounds of the draft since wide out Josh Godon got suspended for the season for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. Cleveland's receivers for this season are journeymen for the most part and the rest of the offense is mediocre. On the defensive side, their very solid with cornerback Joe Haden in the secondary and the linebacking core and the defensive front is solid. Expect another last place finish in Cleveland.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (11-5): Indianapolis is the class of the AFC south and they will continue to be this season. Quarterback Andrew Luck is entering his third season and he'll just continue to improve. Running back Trent Richardson and newcomer wide receiver Hakeem Nicks look to bounce back from disappointing seasons a year ago. Wide receiver TY Hilton is poised to take his game to another level as well. Veteran receiver Reggie Wayne is coming off an ACL injury and he's another year older. The defense is not the best, but it was important to re-sign cornerback Vontae Davis. Expect a second straight division crown in Indianapolis, despite turmoil going on with team owner Jim Irsay.

2. Houston Texans (8-8): Houston looks to bounce back from a disastrous season a year ago. New head coach Bill O'Brien has a lot of talent on this squad that underachieved last year. Houston traded quarterback Matt Schaub in the offseason and they signed quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to replace him. Fitzpatrick will probably start the season, but if things go wrong again, look for newly acquired Ryan Mallet could get the nod. Running back Arian Foster and wide receiver Andre Johnson look to bounce back and have big seasons. Second-year wide out DeAndre Hopkins is a fantasy sleeper, especially if Fitzpatrick has a good year. The defensive front is arguably the best in football with defensive end JJ Watt and linebacker Jadeveon Clowney. Linebacker Brian Cushing looks to bounce back and return to forum after suffering a broken fibula and a torn fibular collateral ligament. Expect Houston to bounce back and finish 500.

3. Tennessee Titans (6-10): Tennessee is an interesting team with some talent, but there are some glaring holes on the roster. Quarterback Jake Locker is entering a make-or-break season in a standpoint of whether he can stay healthy or not. Running back Dexter McCluster was a nice pickup and should put up fantasy points. Tennessee lacks an elite wide receiver and a reliable tight end. Tennessee's defense is not great but the team picked up linebacker Shaun Phillips, which will improve the defense. Expect a long season in Tennessee.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Jacksonville is doing a nice job rebuilding this team the past few seasons. Head coach Gus Bradley has a lot of work to do as well. Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles has shown a lot of promise in the preseason and he should be the teams starting quarterback instead of veteran Chad Henne. The offensive weapons have a lot of promise as well and Jacksonville's defense should be improved with the additions they made. Expect a long year with promising play in Jacksonville.

AFC West
1. Denver Broncos (12-4): Denver is the class of not only the AFC West, but the entire AFC. The team looks to get back to the Super Bowl after an incredible regular season a year ago and then being blown out in the Super Bowl by the eventual champion Seahawks. Denver did everything they could to improve the team and they did. The defense is much better with the additions of cornerback Aqib Talib, defensive end DeMarcus Ware, and safety TJ Ward. Despite the loss of wide receiver Eric Decker, Denver signed wide out Emmanuel Sanders to replace him. The rest of the offense will be great yet again, as long as if quarterback Peyton Manning is healthy. Expect Denver to win the division for their fourth straight season.

2. San Diego Chargers (10-6)*: San Diego surprised a lot of folks last season by making the postseason with rejuvenated quarterback Philip Rivers leading the way. The offense is solid with Rivers along with running backs Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead, receivers Keenan Allen and Malcolm Floyd, and potential breakout tight end Ladarius Green. The defense is not great, but there are impact players such as linebacker Dwight Freeney. Expect San Diego to grab the first Wild Card spot in the AFC.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8): Kansas City surprised folks last season too by going 11-5 and grabbing that first wild card, but ultimately losing in the wild card round. Quarterback Alex Smith signed a long term extension that doesn't kick in until next season. Running back Jamaal Charles looks to build on a career year from last season, but the loss of some offensive lineman and running back Dexter McCluster will cause a regression. The defense is solid with the defensive fronts and line backing core. The secondary is the weak part of the Kansas City defense. Expect regression this season in Kansas City.

4. Oakland Raiders (4-12): Oakland is a mess and the worst team in the league. Oakland announced that Derek Carr will start over Matt Schaub week one, which I respect the move. The running back combo of Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden should be interesting to watch. Oakland lacks a true wide receiver and doesn't have a quality tight end. The defense is not great either despite signing defensive ends LaMarr Woodley and Justin Tuck. Rookie linebacker Khalil Mack and linebacker Sio Moore did look promising in the preseason though, but we shall see. Expect Oakland to receive the first pick in the 2015 draft.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): After winning the division a year ago, Philadelphia is in great position to win the NFC East again. Running back LeSean McCoy is a sleeper MVP candidate, but despite the loss of DeSean Jackson, the receiving core is solid with Jeremy Maclin returning from injury and Riley Cooper. Tight end Zach Ertz is poised for a breakout season too. Philadelphia's defense could be better than last years, but the secondary must step up in order for that to happen. Expect Philadelphia to repeat as division champions.

2. New York Giants (9-7): The Giants and quarterback Eli Manning look to bounce back after a disappointing season a year ago. The preseason doesn't usually matter but the new west coast offense that new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo is trying to install is clearly a work in progress. The running game is improved with running backs Rashad Jennings and rookie Andre Williams getting carries. Wide receiver Victor Cruz looks to bounce back this season too. There is a glaring hole at tight end and the offensive line didn't improve especially with guard Geoff Schwartz dislocating his toe. The defense has some questions within the defensive front and whether defensive end Jason Pierre Paul can stay healthy and have a season similar to his 2011 season. The secondary is improved with the editions of cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond. Expect the Giants to fall short of the postseason.

3. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Dallas is in a state of flux to say the least. Quarterback Tony Romo is coming off of back surgery and the defense is a train wreck without Sean Lee, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. The offense will still be great with running back DeMarco Murray, receivers Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams, and tight end Jason Witten. Romo is under a ton of pressure this season to keep Dallas in contention. I believe Romo has a big season that keeps this team afloat, even though the defense is going to be horrible. Expect a 500 season for the fourth straight season and for notorious owner Jerry Jones to fire head coach Jason Garrett.

4. Washington Redskins (7-9): Washington looks to bounce back from a disastrous season a year ago. Quarterback Robert Griffin III looks to bounce back from being benched by former coach Mike Shannahan at the end of last season. This offense along with Griffin should be solid with running back Alfred Morris, wide receivers Pierre Garçon and DeSean Jackson, and tight end Jordan Reed. The defense is not great, but if the defense is going to be good, the secondary must step up. Expect Washington to improve the win total from a year ago, but it won't be enough to win the division.

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (11-5): Green Bay looks to bounce back from a disappointing season a year ago in which franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers was out with a broken collarbone. Rodgers seems to be healthy now and he is poised for a monster season. Second-year running back Eddie Lacy is going to build on what he did a year ago, and Rodger's receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will have big impacts on this great offense as well. The defense is Green Bay's weakness outside of linebacker Clay Matthews. Nose tackle BJ Raji is out for the season and that is a blow to the defensive front. Despite defensive issues, expect Rodgers to carry Green Bay to their fourth consecutive division title.

2. Chicago Bears (10-6)*: Chicago is a very intriguing team this season. This offense could be one of the best in the league if quarterback Jay Cutler can play a full season. Running back Matt Forte is a key to this offense as well as wide outs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. The defense is aging a little bit with cornerbacks Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman declining. On the flip side, Chicago made a great first round selection with cornerback Kyle Fuller. Expect Chicago to grab the final Wild Card spot in the NFC.

3. Detroit Lions (7-9): Some folks like Detroit as a sleeper playoff team, but I don't see it. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is facing a make or break season as well as other players on this team. The offense has the potential to be amazing if players such as running back Reggie Bush play to what their capable of. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is one of the leagues best and he single handily makes this offense good. Rookie tight end Eric Ebron is a sleeper Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate if
things break right. On the defensive side, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh needs to mature as a player on and off the field. The secondary is weak for the most part and rookie linebacker Kyle Van Noy will help the pass rush. Expect about the same results as last season for Detroit.

4. Minnesota Vikings (5-11): Minnesota is doing a great job rebuilding this team. Quarterback Matt Cassel got the starting nod over rookie Teddy Bridgewater, who should get the nod soon if things go poorly. A question surrounding this team is how many prime years does running back Adrian Peterson have left. Wide receiver Coradelle Patterson is poised for a breakout season and tight end Kyle Rudolph looks to have another great season as well. The defense got younger when Minnesota drafted linebacker Anthony Barr. The rest of the defense may be better than we think. Expect Minnesota to finish in the cellar again.

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (13-3): New Orleans is one of the more improved teams in the league, thanks to great free-agency moves and great drafting. Quarterback Drew Brees is poised for a monster season and this offense is going to be phenomenal. The loss of Darren Sproles won't be a thought when running backs Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram step up. Wide receivers Marques Colston and rookie Brandin Cooks will have big years along with tight end Jimmy Graham. The defense will be better with safety Jarius Byrd improving the secondary. Expect New Orleans to cruise through the division.

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7): Atlanta looks to bounce back from a disastrous season a year ago. Offensively, when healthy, should be good with quarterback Matt Ryan looking to have a bounce back season along with his weapons in receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White. Running back Steven Jackson is declining and Atlanta needs lacks a versatile tight end that can replace what Tony Gonzalez. The defense is not great by any means. Linebacker Osi Umenyiora is declining as well. Expect a bounce back season in Atlanta, but they'll fall short.

3. Tampa Bay Bucanneers (7-9): Many people like Tampa Bay to make the post season this year, I just think the NFC is the better conference and there are teams that are better than Tampa. Quarterback Josh McCown looks to build on a career year filling in for Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler for part of last season. McCown has great weapons in running back Doug Martin, wide receivers Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans, and tight end Brandon Myers. Tampa's defense has the potential to be great with improvements all around such as defensive end Michael Johnson coming over in free agency and the emergence of linebacker Lavonte David. A losing record in Tampa Bay would be considered a massive disappointment, but the future is bright.

4. Carolina Panthers (6-10): How can a team go from 12-4 and division champs to dividing last years win total in half? Easy, losing impact players such as wide receiver Steve Smith and all of us smart people knowing this team overachieved last season and you know the regression is bound to happen. Quarterback Cam Newton is dealing with rib issues, running backs DeAngelo Hall and Jonathan Stewart are declining, and the team has to rely on receivers such as Jerricho Cotchery and rookie Kelvin Benjamin. The defense is still very good with linebacker Luke Kuechly and defensive end Star Lotulelei, but the secondary is weak. Expect a first-to-worst season in Carolina and this could be the end of head coach Ron Rivera.

NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-4): The defending champs look to repeat as champs yet again. Seattle's offense is going to be better, despite the loss of wide receiver Golden Tate, quarterback Russell Wilson will only get better, Marshawn Lynch is one of the leagues best running backs, wide out Percy Harvin may be actually healthy for a full season. We all know that Seattle has the best defense in the league, with the secondary of cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Earl Thomas, linebackers Bobby Wagner and reigning Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith, and defensive ends Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. Expect Seattle to win the division yet again.

2. San Francisco 49ers (11-5)*: San Francisco had a tumultuous offseason in a standpoint of how many players have left in free agency, the players that have been suspended such as linebacker Aldon Smith, and the rumors swirling about head coach Jim Harbaugh wanting out. There is a ton of pressure on quarterback Colin Kaepernick and the offense because of the losses on the defense. Running back Frank Gore is aging, but San Francisco stole running back Carlos Hyde in the draft. The receiving core was improved by trading for wide out Stevie Johnson, to pair him up with receiver Anquan Boldin and tight end Vernon Davis. The defense will regress, but linebacker Patrick Willis must step up his game for the defense to not regress as much as it could. Despite some turmoil, I trust this team and head coach Jim Harbaugh to find their way to the first Wild Card slot.

3. Arizona Cardinals (9-7): Arizona surprised folks last season by going 10-6 and just falling short of the postseason. Quarterback Carson Palmer is declining, but he has great weapons in running back Andre Ellington, who is poised to break out and wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. The defense is great with cornerback Patrick Peterson leading the secondary. The pass rush is very good as well, despite linebacker Darryl Washington being suspended for the season for violating the league's substance policy. Expect Arizona to fall short of the postseason yet again.

4. St. Louis Rams (5-11): St. Louis has lost starting quarterback Sam Bradford for the season with a torn ACL, the same injury that he had a year ago that cut his season short. Back up quarterback Shaun Hill is now the starter, who has never started a game in a career. Running back Zac Stacy is facing a make-or-break year, as well as tight end Jared Cook, and second-year receiver Tavon Austin looks to take the next step. The defense is excellent with the defensive front being led by defensive end Robert Quinn and rookie defensive tackle Aaron Donald will only make the pass rush better. The line backing core is solid with second-year linebacker Alec Ogletree and the secondary will improve. Without Bradford, expect St. Louis to finish in the cellar.

2015 Playoff Predictions

NFC Wild Card Round
(3) Green Bay Packers over (6) Chicago Bears
(5) San Francisco 49ers over (4) Philadelphia Eagles

AFC Wild Card Round
(3) Indianapolis Colts over (6) Pittsburgh Steelers
(5) San Diego Chargers over (4) Cincinnati Bengals

NFC Division Round
(1) New Orleans Saints over (5) San Francisco 49ers
(2) Seattle Seahawks over (3) Green Bay Packers

AFC Division Round
(1) New England Patriots over (5) San Diego Chargers
(2) Denver Broncos over (3) Indianapolis Colts

NFC Championship
(1) New Orleans Saints over (2) Seattle Seahawks

AFC Championship
Yes, I do believe Denver finally pulls a game out in Foxborough.
(2) Denver Broncos over (1) New England Patriots

Super Bowl XLIX
A Manning versus Brees show down in the desert is what I'm calling for. It'd be great and I believe with a better defense and arguably the better quarterback, Denver and Manning will win it all.
(A2) Denver Broncos over (N1) New Orleans Saints

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