Wednesday, May 18, 2016

2016 NBA Mock Draft: 1st Edition

Here is my first edition of my 2016 NBA mock draft.

1. Philadelphia 76ers- Ben Simmons, Power Forward, LSU: With their hodge podge of big men and Simmons with star potential with his ball handling and passing, he’s an obvious choice even as some executives favor Ingram for his shooting. Simmons isn’t a good shooter.

2. Los Angeles Lakers- Brandon Ingram, Small Forward, Duke: The Lakers needed a little bit of luck, and got it here. Not only were they able to keep the selection (it was top-three protected) and end up with the No. 2 pick in a two-player draft, but they're also in line to grab a guy whose skills perfectly complement the other pieces they already have. LA is still a long way away from competing for titles, but Ingram and D'Angelo Russell are good pieces to build around.  

3. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets)- Dragan Bender, Power Forward/Center, Croatia: There is no doubt this pick is likely to be traded. The Celtics missed out on the Simmons/Ingram bonanza but may have gotten lucky in their own way: After making the playoffs, Boston doesn't have any huge, glaring needs, nor are there the players in the No. 3 spot who would have addressed them. Instead they can take Bender, who at 19 years old is a long-term project, but also a potential future star.

4. Phoenix Suns- Jaylen Brown, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, California: It's easy to see the Suns considering several different directions here. Brown has the kind of elite athleticism that translates into a great open-court player, a good rebounder for a wing and the potential to be a high-level defender, all with good size for a small forward. That package came through even as he shared time with Ivan Rabb, a possible lottery pick before deciding to return to school, and Tyrone Wallace, who should get drafted. Brown was the Pacific 12 Conference Freshman of the Year.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves- Jamal Murray, Point Guard, Kentucky: The lottery gods weren't shining on the T-Wolves this year, but that may be a good thing. At this point Minnesota doesn't need another superstar, but instead a piece it can slide in next to Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. Murray is exactly that, a dead-eye shooter who will space the floor and complement Towns and Wiggins perfectly. This team could be really good ... as soon as next year.

6. New Orleans Pelicans- Buddy Hield, Shooting Guard, Oklahoma: Eric Gordon is a free agent, however little he played, anyway, and they could use space shooting to open the floor for Anthony Davis. He’s one of the biggest names in college ball, and they can use the star attention.

7. Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks)- Timothe Luwawu, Small Forward, France: Instead of going for any of the obvious top players still on the board (Kris Dunn, Henry Ellenson, Jakob Poeltl), the Nuggets go with the high-upside pick in Luwawu, a high-flying wing player from France who should provide a running mate for Emmanuel Mudiay for years to come.

8. Sacramento Kings- Kris Dunn, Point Guard, Providence: The decision to return for his junior season took Dunn from possible lottery pick in 2015 to an automatic for the top 10 barring an unexpected development. Some teams talked about him as a possibility for No. 3 based on defense and maturity, but he is a very good fit in Sacramento. Even if Rajon Rondo re-signs, it's not like he will be around for many years. And if Rondo does not return, Dunn could possibly move right into the opening lineup at age 22 and more developed physically and emotionally than most from the draft class.

9. Toronto Raptors (from Denver Nuggets via New York Knicks)- Henry Ellenson, Power Forward/Center, Marquette: Having a lottery pick, thanks to a trade with the Knicks, while playing in a conference final is house money. The Raptors have a veteran roster that would allow Skal Labissiere or Timothe Luwawu to develop mostly behind the scenes, and general manager Masai Ujiri is a risk taker in a way that could push him to Labissiere. But Ellenson is a big man who has the mobility to handle an up-tempo system as well as the strength to play physical. That makes for the potential a very good draft follow up for the state of Wisconsin a year after Frank Kaminsky went ninth and Sam Dekker went 18th.

10. Milwaukee Bucks- Jakob Poeltl, Forward/Center, Utah: It's the obvious fit, and the right one as well. Poeltl immediately will bring a defensive presence and offensive production to the low post in Milwaukee.

11. Orlando Magic- Deyonta Davis, Power Forward/Center, Michigan State: With so many young players and no coach at the moment, it's hard to know exactly what direction the Magic will go. Davis provides them a solid backup to Nikola Vucevic in the present, and a big, strong, physical, young player who one day could develop into a dominant low post player.

12. Utah Jazz- Domantas Sabonis, Power Forward/Center, Gonzaga: They’ve been desperate for a point guard, but they should have Dante Exum returning from injury. Sabonis is a multi talented player who could fit in around their big guys.

13. Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards)- Marquese Chriss, Power Forward, Washington: Chriss surprised even himself in coming so far so fast as a freshman, using advanced athleticism and a decent perimeter game to charge up draft boards. Teams like to see a prospect trending up, and that's Chriss in a big way. But he is not a good rebounder for a power forward and he fouled out in 15 of 34 games.

14. Chicago Bulls- Furkan Korkmaz, Shooting Guard, Turkey: Korkmaz is a scoring threat beyond the 3-point line and also a talented and willing passer, a nice combination for someone with good size for a shooting guard with the chance to keep growing. He needs to add bulk more than height, but is still only 18 and could fill out in time. And if he doesn't get stronger, Korkmaz could still make a big contribution as a shooter and facilitator.

15. Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets)- Taurean Prince, Small Forward, Baylor: Denver could use some forward depth and Prince could provide that. It also can open the door for a trade of either Wilson Chandler or Danilo Gallinari.

16. Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks)- Denzel Valentine, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Michigan State: The important part of the Final Four team in 2014-15 had a nice climb up draft boards last season with more experience and a larger role for an elite program. Valentine earned that centerpiece spot as 22-year-old senior who is smart and versatile. He shot 44.4 percent behind the arc and also easily leading the team in assists, a testament to his ability to become a secondary ball handler in the pros as well as score.

17. Memphis Grizzlies- Demeatrius Jackson, Point Guard, Notre Dame: Memphis needs depth at point guard even if Mike Conley re-signs. Jackson has speed to play in the open court, leaping ability to play above the rim and a quick first step to create an opening. The physical advantages are especially important because he does have great size. He gives Notre Dame the chance to send a point guard into the first round for the second year in a row (after Jerian Grant went 19th last June).

18. Detroit Pistons- Skal Labissiere, Center, Kentucky: There might be no player with better long-term upside than Labissiere. Sure, things didn't work out as planned at Kentucky, but there's also a reason he was projected as a top-five pick throughout the season. He'll need two or three years to develop, but if the Pistons are patient, they may have a future star.

19. Denver Nuggets (via Portland Trail Blazers)- Ivica Zubac, Center, Croatia: And so begins the run of draft-and-stash players with the perfect candidate, a team making its third pick of the opening round. Zubac has an opportunity to become a solid player on both ends, with a good chance he would stay in Europe at least one more season to continue to develop. He will only be 19 at the time of the draft, yet already has good size along with excellent mobility and good hands that will allow him to play in transition.

20. Indiana Pacers- Tyler Ulis, Point Guard, Kentucky: They sure need a point guard. You don’t get great ones this far down in the draft, though the pros agree he’s the best pure point guard in the draft. But the 5-10 measurement is with shoes. With lifts? His height scares teams away, but it did with Isaiah Thomas, too.

21. Atlanta Hawks- Malachi Richardson, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Syracuse: In the short term the Hawks lack wing scoring, and in the long term they lack star power, and Richardson eventually could fill both needs. Yes, he's a long way from being a complete player, but as Richardson showed in Syracuse's run to the Final Four, few players have more long-term potential than he does. His 23-point performance against Virginia was one of the best games anyone played in the tournament.

22. Charlotte Hornets- Damian Jones, Power Forward/Center, Vanderbilt: With Al Jefferson hitting free agency, Charlotte needs size in the post and that's exactly what Jones provides. Despite a somewhat disappointing season at Vanderbilt, there's still a reason he was a projected lottery pick entering the season. The tools are there; it's just a matter of whether Jones wants to use them or not.

23. Boston Cetlics- Ante Zizic, Center, Croatia: A high-energy player with nice athleticism for a big, he runs the floor well and handles the contact of playing inside. His offensive game is still limited, though. Zizic is 19, making him an ideal draft-and-stash pick for the end of the first round. With his intensity and with time, he could become a contributor for an NBA team.

24. Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami Heat via Cleveland Cavaliers)- Malik Beasley, Shooting Guard, Florida State: The 76ers need perimeter scoring, and while Turkish forward Furkan Korkmaz is probably the best fit, he also has threatened to pull out of this draft if he's not guaranteed a lottery pick. Therefore Philly does the next best thing and goes with Beasley, a versatile scorer who averaged 15 points in his one season at Florida State.

25. Los Angeles Clippers- Stephen Zimmerman, Center, UCLA: Size plus the ability to play in transition plus a nice touch from the perimeter plus the potential to defend both big-man spots. It's easy to see Zimmerman moving back up, after previously being in the lottery mix. The question is whether he will convince front offices he can play a physical style as well, at least on defense and go after contact rather than rely entirely on finesse. It didn't help that his freshman season was dotted by nagging injuries, illness and a coaching change.

26. Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City Thunder)- Juan Hernangomez, Small Forward/Power Forward, Spain: The 76ers don't want a third rookie along with two possible redshirt rookies, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, so one of the picks in the 20s is almost surely ticketed for a trade or a player to remain overseas. (If they deal No. 1, everything changes.) Hernangomez has used a season of good production to greatly help his chances of making the first round. His experience -- 20 years old now, 21 for the start of training camp -- shows. He is a good athlete who runs the floor well, plays above the rim and can score in a variety of ways. His brother Willy was the No. 35 pick by the 76ers last year and traded the same night to the Knicks.

27. Toronto Raptors- DeAndre' Bembry, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Saint Joseph's: Toronto could use wing depth, especially if DeMar DeRozan leaves in free agency. Bembry would be an interesting pick here at 27.

28. Phoenix Suns (via Cleveland Cavaliers)- Chieck Diallo, Power Forward, Kansas: The Mali native who attended high school in New York had a very choppy freshman season at Kansas, from missing two exhibitions and five games as the NCAA sorted through eligibility issues to undependable play once he was cleared. There were stretches when just staying on the court was a challenge, and he averaged 7.5 minutes. But athleticism, size and potential on defense makes him a very intriguing prospect. While it would not be a surprise if he dropped out of the first round, some team will be lured by the physical tools to invest intensive coaching and a lot of NBA D-League time.

29. San Antonio Spurs- Melo Trimble, Point Guard, Maryland: A solid point guard who will not beat many people on athleticism but has 3-point range and leadership qualities. Trimble worked last season, as a sophomore, to show he is more than a scorer and provided with good results as the Terrapins went 27-9 and reached the Sweet 16. He has improved his decision making and ball handling after a 2014-15 with a poor assist-to-turnover ratio.

30. Golden State Warriors- Zhou Qi, Center, China: Zhou said he can make a smooth transition to the United States even if it not in a city with a large Chinese population, so ending up in the Bay Area would simply be a bonus. Similarly, it would not be a marketing move by the Warriors. (Like they need one.) Zhou needs to bulk up, but someone will probably invest a weightlifting regiment and patience around the end of the first round or the start of the second for a 7-2 prospect with agility. Chances are good Golden State, looking for cap flexibility heading into free agency, will pick a player to stay overseas, whether Zhou or someone else.

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