Here are my predictions for the 2016 WNBA season. Don't forget there is a new playoff format this season in which the conferences doesn't matter and the teams with the eight best records in the league make the postseason.
1. Phoenix Mercury- The Mercury advanced to the West Finals last year without Diana Taurasi. Imagine what they will do now with perhaps the best women’s basketball player ever in Turasi back on the court. And don’t forget about Penny Taylor, who also missed 2015, to go with All-WNBA First Teamer DeWanna Bonner and Defensive Player of the Year Brittney Griner. This is essentially the same group that won the title two seasons ago and they will absolutely be a contender yet again this season.
2. Minnesota Lynx- The defending champion Lynx enter 2016 with a roster loaded with talent and goals of becoming the first WNBA team to repeat as champions since the L.A. Sparks back in 2002. The Olympic break in August won’t be much of a break for the Lynx, as four of their players are headed to Rio with the U.S. Women’s National Team. Maya Moore has been one of the leagues best players the last few seasons and long with teammates Lindsay Whalen and Seimone Augustus, they will be a contender for the title.
3. New York Liberty- The Liberty are coming off a season in which they won a franchise-record 23 games; in fact, their 23-11 mark earned them the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs. The league’s stingiest defense (71.1 ppg allowed) and double-double machine Tina Charles make New York a force to be reckoned with. However, the loss of Epiphanny Prince, who will miss much of the season after offseason ACL surgery, is a concern. The Liberty made a lot of nice moves in the offseason which could offset the loss of Prince and I believe Charles will be an MVP candidate as well.
4. Chicago Sky- What does reigning MVP Elena Delle Donne have in store for an encore to her historically great 2015 season? The league’s top scorer (23.4 ppg) led the league’s top-scoring offense (82.9 ppg) a year ago, but the Sky also allowed the second-most points (78.8). Their defense must improve for the Sky to return to the Finals, where they lost in 2014. Delle Donne will be in the MVP conversation yet again and they should be among the leagues best teams.
5. Los Angeles Sparks- The Sparks’ roster features six former All-Stars: Alana Beard, Essence Carson, Jantel Lavender, Nneka Ogwumike, Kristi Toliver and two-time MVP Candace Parker, who put up phenomenal numbers (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 6.3 APG, 1.9 SPG and 1.8 BPG) in 16 games in the second half of last season to lift the Sparks into the playoffs. A full season of Parker to go with the rest of the talent in L.A. points to another playoff run.
6. Dallas Wings- The team formerly known as the Tulsa Shock gets a new city and a new identity for 2016. They also get back a star guard in Skylar Diggins, who missed all but nine games last year with a torn ACL. The team ended a five-year playoff drought without Diggins. Now that she’s back and reunited with Odyssey Sims in the backcourt, the Wings should make a great first impression in Dallas.
7. Indiana Fever- The Tamika Catchings farewell tour officially begins on Saturday when the Fever open the 2016 season against the Dallas Wings. After a surprising run to the Finals last season, can the Fever put it all together this year and send Catchings off into the sunset with a championship? Briann January’s recovery from offseason microfracture knee surgery will be an X-factor to watch. It would be fitting to send Catchings off properly, but we shall see about that.
8. Washington Mystics- The Mystics return much of the same roster from last season — a roster that reached the playoffs, but was eliminated in the first round for the third straight season. Washington features a young and talented frontcourt in Stefanie Dolson and Emma Meesseman. However, the team will be without All-Star guard Ivory Latta for at least the opening games of the season following an April knee surgery.
9. Seattle Storm- After missing the playoffs for the second straight year, the Storm won the lottery and selected Breanna Stewart with the first pick in the 2016 Draft. Stewart joins last year’s top pick and Rookie of the Year Jewell Loyd as the new dynamic duo in Seattle with veterans like Sue Bird and Crystal Langhorne to help usher in the new era of Storm basketball.
10. Atlanta Dream- Atlanta is coming off its first sub-.500 season (15-19) and first missed playoffs since the team’s inaugural campaign in 2008. In order to get back into the playoff picture, coach Michael Cooper’s squad will have to improve its defense, which allowed a league-high 79.8 points per game and had the fourth-worst defensive rating (102.1 pts./100 poss.). Angel McCoughtry will keep this team competitive for the most part and a playoff appearance cannot be ruled out.
11. Connecticut Sun- The Sun have a new coach (former Sparks assistant Curt Miller), a trio of first-round draft picks (No. 3 Morgan Tuck, No. 4 Rachel Banham, No. 6 Jonquel Jones) and a returning former No. 1 pick in Chiney Ogwumike, who missed all of last season after having microfracture knee surgery. With so much change and just a short preseason to put it all together, the Sun may be a work in progress for the early part of this season.
12. San Antonio Stars- Another team undergoing a series of changes, the Stars announced last month that longtime coach/GM Dan Hughes would step down at the end of the 2016 campaign. Ruth Riley is the new GM and No. 2 overall pick Moriah Jefferson is the new point guard with All-Star Danielle Robinson lost for the season after undergoing Achilles surgery. Jefferson joins sharpshooter Kayla McBride in the backcourt as part of a young core that will try to improve on last season’s 8-26 record.
- 2016 WNBA Playoffs (don't forget the top two seeds have a double-bye and the three and four seeds have a single bye)
First Round (Single Elimination)
(8) Washington Mystics vs (5) Los Angeles Sparks: MVP candidate Candace Parker and the rest of her All-Star teammates will move on to the second round with a win over Michael Thibault and the Mystics, who have lost in the first round the previous three seasons.
Prediction: Sparks
(7) Indiana Fever vs (6) Dallas Wings: This should be an interesting game between two solid teams, but I believe Skylar Diggins and Gloria Johnson will lead the Wings to the second round to end Tamika Catching's farewell season.
Prediction: Wings
Second Round (Single Elimination)
(6) Dallas Wings vs (3) New York Liberty: This should be a fun game between two good teams. The MSG crowd will be a factor and Tina Charles will lead the way to the semi-finals against a very good Wings team.
Prediction: Liberty
(5) Los Angeles Sparks vs (4) Chicago Sky: This is a very interesting series between two teams that could wind up making the Finals. I like Parker and the Sparks to advance to the semi-finals although it's tough to beat Elena Delle-Donne and the Sky.
Prediction: Sparks
Semi-Finals (Best-Of-5)
(5) Los Angeles Sparks vs (1) Phoenix Mercury: This should be a fun series with a ton of star power with Parker, Greiner, and Turasi involved. The Mercury are the better team this time around and they'll move on to the WNBA Finals for the second time in three seasons.
Prediction: Mercury in four games.
(3) New York Liberty vs (2) Minnesota Sky: This should be a fun series between two very good teams in this league. There is star power here too with Tina Charles for the Liberty and Maya Moore for the Lynx. I like the Lynx slightly better here to advance to their second straight WNBA finals.
Prediction: Lynx in five games.
WNBA Finals (Best-Of-5)
(2) Minnesota Lynx vs (1) Phoenix Mercury: This should be an outstanding series between the leagues best two teams and arguably the leagues best rivalry. Diana Turasi and Maya Moore are arguably the two best players in the sport as well. With Turasi back in the fold with a lot of talent around her, I like the Mercury to win their second championship in three years.
Prediction: Mercury in five games.
WNBA Awards Predictions
MVP: Tina Charles, New York Liberty
Defensive Player of the Year: Brittany Greiner, Phoenix Mercury
Rookie of the Year: Breanna Stewart, Seattle Storm
Sixth Woman of the Year- Allie Quigley, Chicago Sky
Most Improved Player- Jewell Loyd, Seattle Storm
Coach of the Year- Sandy Brondello, Phoenix Mercury
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