Wednesday, June 8, 2016

2016 MLB Mock Draft: 3rd Edition

Here is my third edition of my 2016 MLB Mock Draft.

1. Philadelphia Phillies- Philadelphia Phillies- AJ Puk, Pitcher, Florida: The prevailing thinking has long been that Puk was the guy the Phils wanted to be the clear-cut choice at No. 1. One start doesn't make a decision, but his dominance in the SEC tournament against LSU could be all Philadelphia needed to cement a decision. High school lefty Jason Groome isn't out of the discussion and there are still bats -- Mickey Moniak on the high school front and Kyle Lewis from the college ranks are the main names mentioned -- still in play.

2. Cincinnati Reds- Nick Senzel, Third Baseman, Tennessee: Perhaps the most advanced bat in this Draft class, Senzel has closed strongly, swinging a hot bat as the Draft rapidly approaches. The Reds would have interest in Puk should the Phils go elsewhere, while Lewis and Puerto Rican high schooler Delvin Perez are still possibilities.

3. Atlanta Braves- Jason Groome, Pitcher, Barnegat HS (NJ): This makes too much sense. The Braves have understandably cast a wide net for this pick, but they're in heavy on this rebuild, so much so that they're willing to take on other team's bad contracts to acquire extra draft picks. (They ate the $3 million or so left on Brian Matusz's contract to get the 76th pick from the Orioles a few weeks ago.) Groome is widely considered the best prospect in the draft class thanks to a big fastball and a nasty breaking ball. He's too good for the Braves to pass up.

4. Colorado Rockies- Mickey Moniak, Outfielder, LA Costa Canyon HS (CAL): Moniak has upped his draft stock big time since the start of the spring and is now at least in the conversation for the top pick. The Rockies have had quite a bit of success developing position players -- it's not all Coors Field, folks -- over the years and they love not only loud tools, but baseball smarts.

5. Milwaukee Brewers- Corey Ray, Outfielder, Louisville: Based on how I have the top four picks shaking out, the Brewers would have their pick of the top two college bats in the class in Ray and Kyle Lewis. They've been more heavily connected to Ray, the draft's top power-speed threat. He's hit .319/.396/.562 with 15 homers and 44 steals in 62 games this season.

6. Oakland Raiders- Kyle Lewis, Outfielder, Mercer: Thanks to Moneyball, the A's are seen as a team that prefers college players to high schoolers. That hasn't always been the case though. They did take Addison Russell and Billy McKinney out of high school with their first-round picks in 2012 and 2013, respectively. That said, Lewis is the best player still on the board and arguably the best hitter in the draft class, so he's the guy. Lewis hit .395/.535/.731 with 20 homers, 66 strikeouts, and 48 walks in 61 games this season.

7. Miami Marlins- Braxton Garrett, Pitcher, Florence HS (ALA): Garrett has the highest floor among the prep pitchers, not to mention a lofty ceiling, and could be a better bet for long-term success as a starter than AJ Puk or Jason Groome. Riley Pint and Delvin Perez also would be in play if they're still on the board.

8. San Diego Padres- Riley Pint, Pitcher, Saint Thomas Aquinas HS (KS): Less risk averse than other clubs, San Diego strongly will consider all of the top prep arms, and Pint could be its preference if all of them were available. Perez is another possibility. The Padres are on Stanford right-hander Cal Quantrill, a top 10 talent who missed this season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and probably will have to take him here if they want him because it's increasingly unlikely that he gets to them at Nos. 24 or 25.

9. Detroit Tigers- Dakota Hudson, Pitcher, Mississippi State: The Tigers appear to be prime candidates to once again target an arm with the No. 9 overall pick. With all of the college pitchers still on the board outside of A.J. Puk, they'll go with right-hander Dakota Hudson out of Mississippi State. With a durable 6'5", 205-pound frame and a solid three-pitch repertoire that includes a plus slider with a chance to be plus-plus, Hudson looks the part of a future front-line starter.

10. Chicago White Sox- Matt Manning, Pitcher, Sheldon High School (CAL): There's no way Pint gets past Detroit. The consolation prize could be Manning, another flamethrowing high school right-hander and he would be a great selection here for Chicago.

11. Seattle Mariners- Justin Dunn, Pitcher, Boston College: The hottest Draft rumor right now is that Seattle is going to take Dunn, and we'll play along. If not Dunn, it could be Burdi or California high school outfielder Blake Rutherford, whose stock has dipped slightly since he entered the year as the top-ranked prep position player.

12. Boston Red Sox- Ian Anderson, Pitcher, Shenendehowa HS (NY): Given the opportunity, Boston would pounce on Garrett (the next few teams would love him as well) or Ray. Barring that, the Red Sox would have interest in Anderson; college arms Hudson, Burdi and Quantrill; Rutherford and Pennsylvania high school third baseman Nolan Jones.

13. Tampa Bay Rays- Blake Rutherford, Outfielder, Chaminade Prep High School (CAL): Tampa Bay appears to be the floor for Rutherford and the ceiling for Georgia third baseman/right-hander Josh Lowe, the Draft's best two-way talent. If the Rays go the college route, Hudson is a leading candidate.

14. Cleveland Indians- Zack Collins, Catcher, Miami (FL): Unless Garrett somehow lasts this long, which is virtually impossible, Cleveland will sort through bats such as Rutherford, Collins and Pennsylvania high schoolers Alex Kirilloff and Jones.

15. Minnesota Twins- Delvin Perez, Shortstop, International Baseball Academy (PR): This year's draft is historically thin on middle infield talent. Delvin Perez was the only lock to go in the first round among players who are expected to stick at the shortstop position. However, that all changed when a report surfaced Tuesday, per John Manuel and J.J. Cooper of Basemall America that Perez had tested positive for "an undisclosed performance enhancer" in his predraft drug test. So it should be interesting to see if Perez goes from a projected top five pick to further down the draft or not.

16. Los Angeles Angels- Alex Kirilloff, Outfielder, Plum HS (PA): While the Angels desperately need players that could help soon in Anaheim, especially on the mound, they’ve been tied to high school hitters for the last month, with numerous reports of GM Billy Eppler hitting the trail to get extra eyes on prep hitters in Georgia and the Southeast, but sticking with the Northeast makes sense for a team that struck gold with Mike Trout seven years ago.

17. Houston Astros- Zack Burdi, Pitcher, Louisville: Armed with a 100 mph fastball, there are those who feel he could jump straight to the majors as a bullpen arm down the stretch. For those with more patience, he may be able to transition to the rotation. Either way, he's going to go early for a college reliever.

18. New York Yankees- Forrest Whitley, Pitcher, Alamo Heights HS (Texas): There are mixed signals coming out of New York, which has interest in prep right-handers Anderson, Whitley and Kevin Gowdy from California. Other indications are that the Yankees may want a college bat such as Craig or Virginia catcher Matt Thaiss. Trammell is a dark horse here.

19. New York Mets- Will Craig, Third Baseman, Wake Forest: New York's interest in Craig is one of the worst-kept secrets this draft season. They're going college bat here unless all hell breaks lose in the first 18 picks. Craig is not the next quick riser like Michael Conforto, but he is the best college hitter on the board at this point. He hit .392/.537/.766 with 16 homers, 47 walks, and 33 steals this spring.

20. Los Angeles Dodgers- Jordan Shefflield, Pitcher, Vanderbilt: The thinking is that Los Angeles will pursue a high school position player and a college pitcher with its two first-rounders. If the Dodgers go for the latter here, Sheffield has the best pure stuff among the candidates. The better value might be to take Jones or Lux here -- neither will make it to No. 32 -- and wait on the college arm.

21. Toronto Blue Jays- Cal Quantrill, Pitcher, Stanford: After trading several pitchers last summer, Toronto can start replenishing its stock of arms with this choice. The Blue Jays wouldn't mind having one of the high school arms fall and also have Quantrill (whose father Paul pitched 14 seasons in the big leagues, six with Toronto) and Sheffield in their sights. If there's a massive run on pitching ahead of them, the Jays could go for Trammell, Lux or Jones.

22. Pittsburgh Pirates- TJ Zeuch, Pitcher, Pittsburgh: There's much more to this than the local connection (Zeuch is from the Cincinnati suburbs anyway). Zeuch is a monster on the mound at 6-foot-7 and his mechanics are surprisingly smooth for a player that size. He's got mid-90s gas, two breaking balls, and a work-in-progress changeup. Simply put, Zeuch offers the most upside of all the college starters still on the board. He has a 3.10 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings this spring.

23. Saint Louis Cardinals- Cody Sedlock, Pitcher, Illinois: The Cardinals are another team with extra picks after losing Lackey and Jason Heyward to free agency, holding the 23rd, 33rd, and 34th picks. Sedlock is the perfect St. Louis pick: He's polished, he has a deep arsenal, he's been healthy, and he figures to climb the minor-league ladder quickly. Sedlock had a 2.49 ERA with 116 strikeouts in 101 1/3 innings this season.

Compensation Round A
24. San Diego Padres- Nolan Jones, Third Baseman, Holy Ghost Prep (PA): Jones has a ton of power and he would be a fine selection here for the Padres. These next two selections are the floor for Quantrill and Jones.

25. San Diego Padres- Josh Lowe, Third Baseman, Pope HS (GA): Though multiple teams in the top 10 have scouted Lowe heavily, the consensus is that he's going in the 20s. Lux, Sedlock, Gowdy and Benson also could fit here. If San Diego needs to save money to accommodate over-slot signings, it could cut a deal with someone like Florida right-hander Dane Dunning, Georgia high school outfielder Brandon Marsh or Tennessee prep left-hander Ryan Rolison.

26. Chicago White Sox- Eric Lauer, Pitcher, Kent State: Lauer was nearly unhittable this season, steamrolling his way through Mid-American Conference competition. He'd be able to help on the South Side quicker than perhaps any other arm still on the board at this point, so this is a good move for the White Sox.

27. Baltimore Orioles- Will Benson, Outfielder, The Westminster Schools (GA): Burdi wouldn't get past Baltimore but is probably a pipe dream at No. 27. Barring someone else unexpectedly dropping, this could come down to Benson versus Thaiss or perhaps a college arm.

28. Washington Nationals- Drew Mendoza, Third Baseman, Lake Minneola HS (FLA): His strong commitment to Florida State sounds like it will require an above-pick-value deal, but the Nats do have a pair of picks in the first round to play with.

29. Washington Nationals- Alec Hansen, Pitcher, Oklahoma: In the conversation to go No. 1 overall at the start of the spring, Hansen has seen his stock fall as much as any player in the country over the past few months. The Washington Nationals have a good track record of developing pitching and never shy away from taking a high-risk, high-reward chance on draft day, so Hansen could be a target.

30. Texas Rangers- Taylor Trammell, Outfielder, Mount Paran Christian HS (GA): It's always a safe guess to give Texas a high-ceiling athlete, and Trammell certainly fits the bill as the Georgia Class A football player of the year. Other possibilities in that vein include Lowe, Benson and Florida outfielder Buddy Reed.

31. New York Mets- Bryan Reynolds, Outfielder, Vanderbilt: There are some swing-and-miss concerns, but Reynolds is a switch-hitter with four average-or-better tools, a chance to play center field and the highest OPS (1.067) in the Southeastern Conference. He's not generating a ton of first-round buzz but belongs in here somewhere.

32. Los Angeles Dodgers- Kyle Muller, Pitcher, Jesuit College Prep (TX): Los Angeles' plan to get a high school position player here could be foiled if there's a run on them between Nos. 20 and 32. No prepster has had a more impressive two-way season than Muller, and the Dodgers did pretty well the last time they signed a high school lefty from the Dallas area. You may have heard of Clayton Kershaw.

33. Saint Louis Cardinals- Robert Tyler, Pitcher, Georgia: Some of the players St. Louis will consider at No. 23 will be available 10 picks later. Additional college pitching candidates include right-handers Connor Jones (Virginia), Logan Shore (Florida) and Jon Duplantier (Rice) and lefty Anthony Kay (Connecticut).

34. Saint Louis Cardinals- Matt Thais, Catcher, Virginia: Other position players St. Louis could look at are high school third baseman Carter Kieboom (Georgia) and Cole Stobbe (Nebraska), Okey, Oklahoma shortstop Sheldon Neuse and Auburn outfielder Anfernee Grier.

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