Thursday, June 9, 2016

2016 MLB Mock Draft: Final Edition

Here is my final edition of my 2016 MLB Mock Draft.

1. Philadelphia Phillies- Mickey Moniak, Outfielder, LA Costa Canyon HS (CAL): AJ Puk might offer more upside, but Moniak has a high ceiling, too, and a higher floor as a surefire center fielder with as much pure hitting ability as anyone in this Draft. Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis and California high school outfielder Blake Rutherford are other possibilities for Philadelphia.

2. Cincinnati Reds- Nick Senzel, Third Baseman, Tennessee: Perhaps the most advanced bat in this Draft class, Senzel has closed strongly, swinging a hot bat as the Draft rapidly approaches. The Reds would have interest in AJ Puk should the Phils go elsewhere, while Kyle Lewis is a possibility too.

3. Atlanta Braves- Corey Ray, Outfielder, Louisville: Most of the buzz here is between Ray and Kyle Lewis, the top two college outfielders, and the Braves continue to discuss both. There has also been a good amount of noise about a potential deal involving Ian Anderson.

4. Colorado Rockies- AJ Puk, Pitcher, Florida: If Philadelphia passes on Mickey Moniak, Colorado would snap him up. Otherwise, the Rockies will decide among Puk, Kyle Lewis and Kansas high school right-hander Riley Pint.

5. Milwaukee Brewers- Blake Rutherford, Outfielder, Chaminade Prep High School (CAL): For several weeks, Delvin Perez and the Brewers were paired together, but when he reportedly tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs, that seemed less likely (although still not completely out of the question). Milwaukee would probably have a strong interest in Corey Ray here, and there is a lot of talk about potential deals, with Rutherford or perhaps with Zack Collins.

6. Oakland Athletics- Kyle Lewis, Outfielder, Mercer: Thanks to Moneyball, the A's are seen as a team that prefers college players to high schoolers. That hasn't always been the case though. They did take Addison Russell and Billy McKinney out of high school with their first-round picks in 2012 and 2013, respectively. That said, Lewis is the best player still on the board and arguably the best hitter in the draft class, so he's the guy. Lewis hit .395/.535/.731 with 20 homers, 66 strikeouts, and 48 walks in 61 games this season.

7. Miami Marlins- Braxton Garrett, Pitcher, Florence HS (ALA): Garrett has the highest floor among the prep pitchers, not to mention a lofty ceiling, and could be a better bet for long-term success as a starter than AJ Puk or Jason Groome. Riley Pint and Delvin Perez also would be in play if they're still on the board.

8. San Diego Padres- Jason Groome, Pitcher, Barnegat HS (NJ): San Diego has three first-round picks, a need for high-ceiling talent and a willingness to gamble. The Padres have been all over Stanford right-hander Cal Quantrill, a potential top-five pick had he not missed most of the last two seasons after Tommy John surgery, and know he won't get to their second choice at No. 24. But they may find Groome too tempting to pass up. Riley Pint and California right-hander Matt Manning are two more power arms on San Diego's radar.

9. Detroit Tigers- Riley Pint, Pitcher, Saint Thomas Aquinas HS (KS): This is Pint's absolute floor, and there's a good chance he gets to Detroit if Colorado doesn't take him. If Pint isn't available and someone surprising doesn't fall, the Tigers could turn to Cal Quantrill, Matt Manning, Mississippi State right-hander Dakota Hudson or Louisville right-hander Zack Burdi, a good bet to be the first player from the 2016 Draft to reach the big leagues.

10. Chicago White Sox- Justin Dunn, Pitcher, Boston College: If the Brewers don't make a deal with Rutherford, this could be a landing spot for him. But the White Sox often go the college pitching route, and no college pitcher had more helium than Dunn, the reliever-turned-starter who just helped pitch Boston College to a surprising Super Regional performance.

11. Seattle Mariners- Zack Collins, Catcher, Miami (FL): Seattle would be jumping up and down if Corey Ray makes it here, but that’s not happening. Boston College righty Justin Dunn is the other name I hear strongly connected here, but an advanced collegiate bat like Collins who has a chance—albeit slim—to stay behind the plate is the likely choice for the Mariners.

12. Boston Red Sox- Ian Anderson, Pitcher, Shenendehowa HS (NY): Given the opportunity, Boston would pounce on Garrett (the next few teams would love him as well) or Ray. Barring that, the Red Sox would have interest in Anderson; college arms Hudson, Burdi and Quantrill; Rutherford and Pennsylvania high school third baseman Nolan Jones.

13. Tampa Bay Rays- Delvin Perez, Shortstop, International Baseball Academy (PR): Perez’s stock is the most volatile in the class, especially with the recent news of a failed drug test. He’s also the most talented prep player in the class, and Tampa Bay has shown a willingness to take risks like this in the past.

14. Cleveland Indians- Cal Quantrill, Pitcher, Stanford: Quantrill is one of the biggest wild cards in the Draft as he has made just three starts since his freshman year because of Tommy John surgery. He did work out for a select number of teams, including the Indians. Cleveland took Brady Aiken a year ago, showing it isn't afraid to go down this path.

15. Minnesota Twins- Alex Kirilloff, Outfielder, Plum HS (PA): Most of the talk has been about high school players here, and some of the top prep arms could come into play, if signable. Kirilloff and his left-handed bat could land at any point in this area of the Draft as well, with the Twins having definite interest.

16. Los Angeles Angels- Dakota Hudson, Pitcher, Mississippi State: Los Angeles would have interest in Kirilloff and otherwise will look at college pitchers such as Hudson and fellow right-handers Cody Sedlock (Illinois), T.J. Zeuch (Pittsburgh) and Jordan Sheffield (Vanderbilt), plus high school hitters such as Georgians Josh Lowe and Will Benson.

17. Houston Astros- Cody Sedlock, Pitcher, Illinois: The Astros have only been attached to pitchers with this selection, so they’ll probably take an outfielder, because that’s how life works. But if they are serious about getting an arm—a strong possibility—and if Sedlock is off the board (also a strong possibility), they’ll look at guys like Louisville closer Zach Burdi or Pittsburgh righty T.J. Zeuch.

18. New York Yankees- Forrest Whitley, Pitcher, Alamo Heights HS (Texas): It looks like pitchers for New York and probably a high schooler. Anderson probably doesn't get by the Yankees, with Whitley, California right-hander Kevin Gowdy and Texas lefty Kyle Muller more likely to be available. TJ Zeuch could be the guy if New York goes the college route.

19. New York Mets- Will Craig, Third/First Baseman, Wake Forest: New York's interest in Craig is one of the worst-kept secrets this draft season. They're going college bat here unless all hell breaks lose in the first 18 picks. Craig is not the next quick riser like Michael Conforto, but he is the best college hitter on the board at this point. He hit .392/.537/.766 with 16 homers, 47 walks, and 33 steals this spring.

20. Los Angeles Dodgers- Joey Wentz, Pitcher, Shawnee Mission East HS (KS): Virginia's Matt Thais could be an option for the Dodgers here, as he fits their organizational needs perfectly. If he’s gone, they’ll look for some upside, and Wentz offers plenty of it, thanks to a big fastball and two quality offspeed pitchers.

21. Toronto Blue Jays- Taylor Trammell, Outfielder, Mount Paran Christian HS (GA): Most of my first 20 projected picks would represent close to a worst-case scenario for the Blue Jays in terms of players they like being gone and those they don't as much remaining on the board. If the best high school arms and Quantrill are unavailable, the supremely athletic Trammell could be the consolation prize.

22. Pittsburgh Pirates- Nolan Jones, Third Baseman, Holy Ghost Prep (PA): It might seem like the easy route to take, going with a Pennsylvania kid to the team in Pittsburgh. But there does seem to be interest in bringing Jones across the state and the Pirates certainly don't shy away from high school bats in the first round.

23. Saint Louis Cardinals- Zack Burdi, Pitcher, Louisville: Burdi's name was moving up boards as the Draft approached, as high as the top half of the first round. This seems like a much more reasonable landing spot. Burdi could get to the big leagues in a hurry out of the bullpen, but some feel he has the stuff to give starting a try.

Compensation Round A
24. San Diego Padres- Jordan Sheffield, Pitcher, Vanderbilt: The Padres take a break from aggressively pursuing upside to acquire some advanced pitching. Sheffield (6-feet tall, 185 pounds), isn't the biggest guy in the world, but he's thrown well for most of this season, for one of the best programs in the country (with a strong track record of producing professional pitchers).

25. San Diego Padres- Matt Manning, Pitcher, Sheldon High School (CAL): News of Manning's potential hefty price tag hasn't been a secret, a reported $5 million to give up playing basketball and baseball at Loyola Marymount. Many think teams with large bonus pools, such as the Phillies or Braves, are hoping Manning gets to them in the second round, but the Padres, with their three first-round picks, have the flexibility to potentially nab him before he gets there.

26. Chicago White Sox- Robert Tyler, Pitcher, Georgia: Tyler is one of the hardest throwers in the class, and he’ll show an above-average changeup as well, giving him a chance to be a fast-moving reliever or (maybe) a long-term starter if his breaking ball gets better. Gavin Lux, a lefty-swinging shortstop from Indian Trail Academy in Kenosha, Wis., is another name I’ve heard here.

27. Baltimore Orioles- Kyle Muller, Pitcher, Jesuit College Prep (TX): Baltimore could dip into any of the demographics -- college position player (Thaiss, Florida outfielder Buddy Reed), college pitcher (Burdi, Lauer), high school bat (Benson), high school arm (Muller).

28. Washington Nationals- Drew Mendoza, Third Baseman, Lake Minneola HS (FLA): His strong commitment to Florida State sounds like it will require an above-pick-value deal, but the Nats do have a pair of picks in the first round to play with.

29. Washington Nationals- Alec Hansen, Pitcher, Oklahoma: In the conversation to go No. 1 overall at the start of the spring, Hansen has seen his stock fall as much as any player in the country over the past few months. The Washington Nationals have a good track record of developing pitching and never shy away from taking a high-risk, high-reward chance on draft day, so Hansen could be a target.


30. Texas Rangers- Will Benson, Outfielder, The Westminster Schools (GA): Benson's tools intrigue many teams from the middle of the first round on, with the Rangers being a very possible landing spot. They certainly have not been afraid of taking high-ceiling, ultra-toolsy but a bit raw players in the past. The Padres and the Dodgers could also have interest.

31. New York Mets- Eric Lauer, Pitcher, Kent State: Every draft class has the “safe” lefty, a guy who isn’t going to need much time to develop in the system but doesn’t offer much upside. That’s what Lauer is, and that also describes Anthony Kay of UConn, another name I’ve heard the Mets are heavy on.

32. Los Angeles Dodgers- Bryan Reynolds, Outfielder, Vanderbilt: There are some swing-and-miss concerns, but Reynolds is a switch-hitter with four average-or-better tools, a chance to play center field and the highest OPS (1.067) in the Southeastern Conference. He's not generating a ton of first-round buzz but belongs in here somewhere.

33. Saint Louis Cardinals- Anthony Kay, Pitcher, Connecticut: Remember what I said about the safe lefty? The Cardinals have always loved those, and that’s why Kay (9–2, 2.65 ERA, 111 strikeouts in 119 innings) makes so much sense if he’s still on the board.

34. Saint Louis Cardinals- Buddy Reed, Outfielder, Florida: Reed's tools are undeniable and he is a premium athlete, one who is still relatively new to baseball. Whether he'll hit enough to use those tools consistently remains to be seen, but a team that thinks he can will take the chance.

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