Wednesday, June 8, 2016

2016 NBA Mock Draft: 4th Edition

Here is my fourth edition of my 2016 NBA Mock Draft.

1. Philadelphia 76ers- Ben Simmons, Power Forward, LSU: With their hodge podge of big men and Simmons with star potential with his ball handling and passing, he’s an obvious choice even as some executives favor Ingram for his shooting. Simmons isn’t a good shooter.

2. Los Angeles Lakers- Brandon Ingram, Small Forward, Duke: The Lakers needed a little bit of luck, and got it here. Not only were they able to keep the selection (it was top-three protected) and end up with the No. 2 pick in a two-player draft, but they're also in line to grab a guy whose skills perfectly complement the other pieces they already have. LA is still a long way away from competing for titles, but Ingram and D'Angelo Russell are good pieces to build around.


3. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets)- Dragan Bender, Power Forward/Center, Croatia: There is no doubt this pick is likely to be traded. The Celtics missed out on the Simmons/Ingram bonanza but may have gotten lucky in their own way: After making the playoffs, Boston doesn't have any huge, glaring needs, nor are there the players in the No. 3 spot who would have addressed them. Instead they can take Bender, who at 19 years old is a long-term project, but also a potential future star.

4. Phoenix Suns- Marquese Chriss, Power Forward, Washington: When Chriss declared, he was pegged as a mid-first round pick. Now he's being talked about in the five. He's likely the best athlete in the draft, with shooting touch out to three-point range, and all kinds of room to learn the game and grow. Does it make sense? On the one hand, this could very easily play out like another Stromile Swift situation.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves- Kris Dunn, Point Guard, Providence: With Tom Thibodeau in town, it's relatively easy to see why he would like a player like Kris Dunn. Dunn is about as good a defensive player as you'll find, plus is quite good offensively with great vision and athleticism. Yeah, he does overlap a bit with Ricky Rubio. But you need more than two guards in the rotation, and right now there's just not another trustworthy guy on the roster. Also, the Wolves could theoretically look to extract value for an excellent piece in Rubio.

6. New Orleans Pelicans- Jamal Murray, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, Kentucky: The Pelicans need real help for next year, so Buddy Hield could make sense, too. But even as a 22-year-old, Buddy will take time to adjust to the NBA. Murray gives the Pelicans the benefit of shooting that could help the same way Hield would, plus an offensive ceiling that could eventually make him a legitimate perimeter star next to Anthony Davis. It's a gamble—at 19 years old, he'll have to get much better on defense, and he struggled creating his own offense against Indiana's NBA-caliber athletes in the NCAA tournament. Still, the Pelicans need to bet big to get Brow some real help. At the very least, he can't be worse than Austin Rivers.

7. Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks)- Buddy Hield, Shooting Guard, Oklahoma: Hield's ceiling probably resembles something like J.J. Redick, running off screens, knocking down jumpers, and playing passable defense. Of course, there's just as of a good a chance he'll look something like Jodie Meeks, someone who was better than people remember at Kentucky, and had a few streaky years of modest success before injuries set him back in Detroit the past two years. For Denver, it's worth betting that he's closer to Redick. He'd be perfect compliment to everything Emmanuel Mudiay. And assuming this team isn't looking to make the playoffs immediately, he'll have a year or two to learn defense and improve his ballhandling as he grows into the NBA. 

8. Sacramento Kings- Jalen Brown, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, California: It'll take a few years for him to materialize into the player who had people excited coming into Cal, but after a disappointing freshman year, giving him to Dave Joerger to develop is probably one of the best-case scenarios possible for him. Brown's built like a tank and he's got the athleticism to turn into a great defender—Joerger can help him get there.

9. Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets)- Jakob Poeltl, Power Forward/Center, Utah: The Raptors will likely lose Bismack Biyombo to free agency this offseason, meaning Poeltl makes sense as a backup to start with for Jonas Valanciunas. They would probably like to take a stretch-four or potentially a wing in order to brace for if DeMar DeRozan leaves, but Poeltl is the best player remaining on the board and definitely fills a spot of need as the Raptors look to likely rebound next year back into the conference finals.

10. Milwaukee Bucks- Deyonta Davis, Power Forward, Michigan State: The Bucks tend to like long athletic players with a high upside, and Davis fits that billing. The 6-10 big man is a good defensive player already due to his ability to move his feet and protect the rim, plus he has potential shooting the ball out to around 15 to 18 feet at some point in his career. Davis still has a way's to go, but at the very least he'd give their frontcourt a bit of a different look, especially if they're seriously going to try the Point Giannis experiment.

11. Orlando Magic- Skal Labissiere, Power Forward/Center, Kentucky: Despite Labissiere's disappointing freshman season at Kentucky, his two skill sets – shot blocking and perimeter shooting – would be a nice fit next to Nikola Vucevic, even if he might be a bit risky.

12. Utah Jazz- Wade Baldwin, Point Guard, Vanderbilt: Baldwin's size, defensive versatility, and improvement as a catch-and-shoot player gives him the positional versatility that could make him an interesting fit in Utah’s backcourt rotation.

13. Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards)- Furkan Korkmaz, Shooting Guard, Turkey: Korkmaz is a pretty highly skilled player that is also one of the youngest players in the draft. He's a good athlete that particularly can get up and throw down, but isn't the best in terms of creating offense for himself at this stage due to a rudimentary dribble. Still, he'd be big enough to pair with Devin Booker on the wing, and would really continue to combine with Bender to provide floor-spacing for their guards. This is a really interesting call here, as none of the players in this area of the draft fully fit the Suns.

14. Chicago Bulls- Timothe Luwawu, Shooting Guard, France: Point guard depth is an obvious area of need here, but Luwawu's shooting, secondary playmaking, and athleticism would be tough to pass up.

15. Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets)- Henry Ellenson, Power Forward, Marquette: A perimeter shooting threat, especially from a front court position, would help open up driving lanes for Emmanuel Mudiay. Ellenson has the chance to develop into that, while also contributing on the glass.

16. Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks)- Denzel Valentine, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Michigan State: The important part of the Final Four team in 2014-15 had a nice climb up draft boards last season with more experience and a larger role for an elite program. Valentine earned that centerpiece spot as 22-year-old senior who is smart and versatile. He shot 44.4 percent behind the arc and also easily leading the team in assists, a testament to his ability to become a secondary ball handler in the pros as well as score.

17. Memphis Grizzlies- Demeatrius Jackson, Point Guard, Notre Dame: Memphis needs depth at point guard even if Mike Conley re-signs. Jackson has speed to play in the open court, leaping ability to play above the rim and a quick first step to create an opening. The physical advantages are especially important because he does have great size. He gives Notre Dame the chance to send a point guard into the first round for the second year in a row (after Jerian Grant went 19th last June).

18. Detroit Pistons- Taurean Prince, Small Forward, Baylor: Prince shot 37.6% from three-point range during his four year career at Baylor, which along with his defensive versatility makes it easy to project Prince as a role player.

19. Denver Nuggets (via Portland Trail Blazers)- Ante Zizic, Center, Coratia: Zizic is just the type of mobile, shot blocking, pick and roll big man that many want in today’s NBA, and would provide more depth to Denver’s already strong front court.

20. Indiana Pacers- Tyler Ulis, Point Guard, Kentucky: They sure need a point guard. You don’t get great ones this far down in the draft, though the pros agree he’s the best pure point guard in the draft. But the 5-10 measurement is with shoes. With lifts? His height scares teams away, but it did with Isaiah Thomas, too.

21. Atlanta Hawks- Domantas Sabonis, Power Forward/Center, Gonzaga: Sabonis is dropping but teams shuffle around the big men of the draft class and are realizing that his floor (a top-notch defender and rebounder) is probably long-term starter material. He’s also a solid finisher, though, and the offense should come along in a big way sooner rather than later.

22. Charlotte Hornets- Malik Beasley, Shooting Guard, Florida State: Improved perimeter shooting is a big part of Charlotte’s recent success, but Nic Batum and Courtney Lee both upcoming free agents, they could look to replenish some of their perimeter depth with younger, cheaper options. Beasley shot 38.7% from three-point range as a freshman for Florida State.

23. Boston Celtics- Damian Jones, Power Forward/Center, Vanderbilt: An athletic seven-footer who loves to run the floor and protect the rim? Boston could use that.

24. Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami Heat via Cleveland Cavaliers)- Ivica Zubac, Center, Croatia: If the 76ers are serious about trading Okafor and Noel, it actually kind of means they might want to replenish the center stocks for the future. Zubac is a 7-foot-1 big man that many believe could have terrific potential in the pick-and-roll offensively and as a traditional paint defender defensively. He may or may not come over immediately.

25. Los Angeles Clippers- DeAndre' Bembry, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Saint Joseph's: Bembry would be the kind of wing that would really help a team that's contending early in his career. He's tough, he's smart, he competes, and he plays well within an offensive scheme. He needs to do a lot still in terms of proving himself as a shooter, but Bembry could easily become an excellent fit in between J.J. Redick and Blake Griffin if the team decides to not make any moves this offseason in terms of its core.

26. Philadelphia 76ers (from Oklahoma City Thunder via Cleveland Cavaliers/Denver Nuggets)- Dejounte Murray, Point Guard, Vanderbilt: Some people really like Murray's upside and think he could eventually be a starting point guard, others look at his lack of efficiency in terms of shooting, finishing at the rim, and turning the ball over and wonder why a team would take him in the first round at all. The Sixers need a point guard and Murray could help represent the type of high upside talent that they could use in order to swing for the fences with a late pick.

27. Toronto Raptors- Petr Cornelie, Power Forward, France: Cornelie is the stretch-four prospect that the Raptors could really use. He's a bit further away from contributing than Hernangmomez is, but probably has slightly better upside due to having a bit more height and better feet defensively. Masai Ujiri also scouts overseas as well as any other general manager, so he'll likely be quite familiar with what Cornelie can do.

28. Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland Cavaliers via Boston Celtics)- Cheick Diallo, Power Forward/Center, Kansas: The Suns could wish Diallo were a few inches taller at this spot, but if he were a few inches taller, they’d have to take him in the lottery. He’s longer than he is tall, though, and a good athlete which helps mitigate some of that. He’s a first big off the bench-type and plays with a ton of energy.

29. San Antonio Spurs- Brice Johnson, Power Forward, North Carolina: Johnson falls hard in this scenario, but his range in the draft will depend on whether teams weigh senior year vs. all the tape he put out before that. A talented rebounder, Johnson’s lack of real NBA-caliber girth could keep him from showcasing those skills as often. Overall, though, he’s got more skills than a lot of the big men going above him here.

30. Golden State Warriors- Malcolm Brogdon, Shooting Guard, Virginia: With Harrison Barnes about to get very expensive, Brogdon’s combination of experience, defensive ability, and ability to navigate screens off the ball and shoot from the perimeter could help him contribute right away for the Warriors.

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