Monday, September 5, 2016

2016 NFL Predictions

Here are my predictions for how the 2016 NFL Season will play out.

AFC East
Despite Tom Brady's four game suspension to start the season, this is still the Patriots division to lose. Rob Gronkowski's presence in that offense will help Jimmy Garappolo in his four games and Gronk is still the leagues best tight end. The Pats defense has lost some guys due to free agency and suspension, but Bill Belichick still has that unit playing hard. Brady will be back after his suspension and they'll still be the class of the division. The Jets have a brutal schedule even though they brought back Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has two very good receivers to throw to in Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall and has a good running game too with Matt Forte and Bilal Powell. The Jets still have a good defense, but their schedule is very brutal as I mentioned so they could be better than their record. The Bills had a tumultuous offseason with a lot of guys getting injured or suspended (on both sides of the ball) could lead to disappointment. Tyrod Taylor got paid this summer so he has a lot to prove this year. The Dolphins look like the safe bet to finish in the cellar of the division with a weird offseason and a new coach in town in Adam Gase. Ryan Tannehill has been inconsistent throughout his career so he has something to prove. Arian Foster replaces Lamar Miller as the running back and Tannehill has some receivers to work with such as DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry. The defensive line (despite the loss of Olivier Vernon) is still decent, but the rest of their defense is suspect.

1. New England Patriots (11-5)
2. New York Jets (8-8)
3. Buffalo Bills (7-9)
4. Miami Dolphins (5-11)

AFC North
This division is very intriguing to me for a lot of reasons. The Steelers should be the team to beat here which features perhaps the best offense in the league led by Ben Rothlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell (who is suspended for the first three games of the season). Martavis Bryant is suspended the whole season, but they can offset that loss with other guys such as Markus Wheaton and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Pittsburgh has gotten younger defensively and that will benefit them with guys like Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones. Cincinnati is flying under the radar because many people believe they'll take a step back due to some free agent departures. Andy Dalton is back from injury and he and AJ Green should lead the way on offense. Their defense is still very good with guys like Geno Atkins and Karlos Dunlap on the defensive line and Pac-Man Jones in the secondary. Baltimore is coming off a very disappointing season in which Joe Flacco tore his ACL. Flacco is back, but his receivers aren't as good as they once were. The Ravens defense hasn't been as good as it was the last few years as well. The Browns are still..... The Browns. Robert Griffin III should make them at least interesting to watch to see how he performs after sitting out last year due to the emergence of Kirk Cousins in Washington. Josh Gordon will be back on the field this season after missing the last two seasons. The Browns defense isn't really good either, although Joe Haden makes their secondary look somewhat decent.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) (Wild Card)
3. Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
4. Cleveland Browns (3-13)

AFC South
This should be an interesting division although it's somewhat down right now, it is on the rise. Houston is the team to beat here after winning the division last year and signing Brock Oswieler. Oswieler has weapons to work with in Lamar Miller and DeAndre Hopkins. The defense is decent led by JJ Watt, of course. Andrew Luck returns for the Colts after being hurt most of last season, but he doesn't have much help other than TY Hilton and his offensive line is a mess. The Colts defense isn't good either except for Vontae Davis in the secondary. The Jaguars are a team many people think will improve, but I personally believe they're a year away. Blake Bortles has shown a ton of promise and he has weapons to work with guys like Allen Robinson. Jacksonville's defense is on the rise with guys like Dante Fowler Jr and rookies Myles Jack and Jalen Ramsey. The Titans are the team almost everyone has in the cellar in this division. Marcus Mariota has a good running game behind him this season with Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray, but his receivers aren't great. The defense in Tennessee is still a work in progress, but Jason McCourty is a good secondary piece.

1. Houston Texans (10-6)
2. Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9)
4. Tennessee Titans (4-12)

AFC West
This division is arguably the best one in the league and it features defending Super Bowl champs, but they are not my pick to win the division. The Chiefs are a very good football team with a great home field advantage and they'll be my pick. Alex Smith brings stability at quarterback and he has a healthy Jamaal Charles this time around, which he didn't have last season. He also has Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce to throw to as well. Kansas City's defense is outstanding led by their defensive line that features Justin Houston (who'll miss the first half of the season), Tamba Hali, and Dontrai Poe. Their secondary is led by Eric Berry (who's exempt) and Marcus Peters. The Raiders are a team on the rise with a bunch of blue clippers. Derek Carr has a great offensive line behind him and great weapons too such as Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Oakland's defense should be improved with the free agent signing of Bruce Irvin to join Khalil Mack on the defensive line. Rookie Karl Joseph should improve the secondary. The defending champion Broncos are primed for a step back after some free agent departures. Trevor Semien won the starting quarterback job over Mark Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch. Semien has Demaryus Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to throw to. Denver's defense with still be outstanding led by reigning Super Bowl MVP Von Miller. The secondary is still decent with guys like TJ Ward and Aqib Talib. The Chargers seem primed for the cellar this season although they will be healthier. Philip Rivers has Keenan Allen back to throw to and Melvin Gordon should be better than he was in his rookie season. Their defense is mediocre at best, but they got rookie Joey Bosa signed after a contract holdout so he should improve the defensive line.

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
Oakland Raiders (10-6) (Wild Card)
Denver Broncos (8-8)
San Diego Chargers (6-10)

NFC East
I was all set to pick the Cowboys to win the division until news broke that Tony Romo will miss 6-10 weeks due to another broken bone in his back. The offense with a healthy Romo is one of the best in the league with the likes of rookie Ezekiel Elliott, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten. The defense is shaky due to a lot of suspended players on that end such as Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence. I still believe this is a playoff team as long as Romo is back after their bye week. The Giants are my pick to win the division pretty much by default because they have the divisions best and most reliable quarterback in Eli Manning and arguably the leagues best receiver in Odell Beckham Jr leading their offense. The front seven of the Giants defense should be much improved with the additions of Olivier Vernon and Damon Harrison. Washington will be interesting to watch and Kirk Cousins has a lot to prove. Cousins has some nice weapons such as rookie Josh Doctson, DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Reed. The Redskins defense isn't that great but the secondary should be improved with the addition of Josh Norman. After the trade of Sam Bradford, the Eagles seem poised for a last place finish. Carson Wentz should be the starter now, but he does have some nice weapons such as Darren Sproles, Jordan Matthews, and Zach Ertz. The Eagles defense gotten worse too, but the front seven is solid led by Fletcher Cox.

New York Giants (10-6)
Dallas Cowboys (9-7) (Wild Card)
Washington Redskins (8-8)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)

NFC North
I was so tempted to pick the Vikings here, but Teddy Bridgewater's torn ACL injury happened and now I'm forced to pick the Packers like everyone else. Aaron Rodgers is still a top-tier quarterback and he has his best receiver Jordy Nelson back from an ACL tear of his own. The Packers defense isn't that good but Clay Matthews is still around and he'll have his moments. Sam Bradford replaces Bridgewater for this season and he'll be reunited with college teammate Adrian Peterson, who is still the leagues best running back. Bradford also has rookie Laquon Treadwell, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph to throw to. The Vikes defense is very good led by their front seven led by Linval Joseph. The secondary is pretty decent as well too led by Harrison Smith. The Bears should be improved, although their record won't show it. Jay Cutler quietly had a good year last season and he has Kevin White (who missed his rookie season) coming back from injury, so that should improve the offense. The defense isn't great but they have some promising young guys on that end such as Eddie Goldman on the defensive line and Kyle Fuller in the secondary. The Lions will take a step back on offense after the retirement of Calvin Johnson, but Matthew Stafford still has Ameer Abdullah, Golden Tate, and Anquan Boldin to work with. Detroit's defense isn't very good, but expect a big year from Ezekiel Ansah from their front seven.

Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
Chicago Bears (7-9)
Detroit Lions (6-10)

NFC South
The defending NFC champion Panthers are still the favorites in this division led by reigning MVP Cam Newton. Kelvin Benjamin returns from injury to only improve the Panthers offense. Carolina's defense is still very good, despite the departure of Josh Norman in the secondary. The front seven is still great with Luke Kuechly, Star Lotulelei, and Charles Johnson. The Buccaneers should be one of the leagues more improved teams led by Jamies Winston. Winston has a ton of weapons such as Doug Martin, Mike Evans, and Vincent Jackson. The Bucs defense should be better with Gerald McCoy and Robert Ayers in the front seven. Rookie Vernon Hargeaves will improve the secondary. Drew Brees is getting up there in age, but he'll keep the Saints in a lot of games. Brees still has some good weapons such as Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks, and Coby Fleener. The defense is not that good, but rookie Sheldon Rankins should improve the front seven and if Jarius Byrd and Kenny Vaccaro are healthy, the secondary won't be that bad. Atlanta is just a mediocre team although they will score with the offense led by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Their defense should be improved with young guys like Vic Beasley in the front seven and rookie Keanu Neal in the secondary.

Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
Atlanta Falcons (6-10)

NFC West
This is a two-team race and it will be fun to watch. Arizona is absolutely loaded on both ends of the ball, despite an aging quarterback in Carson Palmer. Larry Fitzgerald, David Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Michael Floyd will make Palmer look younger. The defense is terrific led by Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson in the secondary and rookie Robert Nkemdiche on the defensive line. Seattle is still a very good team too despite free agent losses and the retirement of Marshawn Lynch. Russell Wilson is just awesome and he still has guys like Thomas Rawls, Doug Baldwin, and Jimmy Graham to work with. The defense is still good led by Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor in the secondary and Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett on the defensive line. The Rams have some talent, but they are mediocre. Jared Goff will have his moments as a rookie quarterback and having Todd Gurley rushing the ball will help, but other than Tavon Austin, he doesn't have much to throw to. Los Angeles's defense is very good led by Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald on the defensive line. The secondary gotten worse though, with the loss of Janoris Jenkins. The 49ers made a good coaching hire in Chip Kelly, but this team won't be good. Blaine Gabbert won the starting quarterback job over the polarizing Colin Kaepernick and Gabbert has guys to work with like Carlos Hyde and Torrey Smith on offense. The defense might actually be half decent with guys like Arik Armstead and rookie DeForrest Buckner on the defensive line and Eric Reid in the secondary.

Arizona Cardinals (12-4)
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) (Wild Card)
Los Angeles Rams (6-10)
San Francisco 49ers (4-12)

- NFL Playoffs

Wild Card
(6) Oakland Raiders vs (3) Kansas City Chiefs: This is a fun division rivalry, but the up and coming Raiders will fall short against a Chiefs team that is poised to go on a deep playoff run.
Pick: Chiefs

(5) Cincinnati Bengals vs (4) Houston Texans: This should be a fun game, but Andy Dalton will finally win a playoff game.
Pick: Bengals

(6) Dallas Cowboys vs (3) Green Bay Packers: This should be a fun rematch of a playoff game from two years ago, but Aaron Rodgers leads the way over a Cowboy team that will make a run at a Wild Card after Tony Romo returns from injury.
Pick: Packers

(5) Seattle Seahawks vs (4) New York Giants: Eli Manning is known for his great play in the playoffs, but Seattle is the better team here and they can shut down the Giants offense.
Pick: Seahawks

Division Round
(5) Cincinnati Bengals vs (1) Pittsburgh Steelers: Here we have a playoff rematch from last years Wild Card round, but Big Ben and that explosive offense will be the difference in this one.
Pick: Steelers

(3) Kansas City Chiefs vs (2) New England Patriots: Here we have a rematch of last years divisional round game, but it's not ideal to bet against Tom Brady in freezing Foxboro.
Pick: Patriots

(5) Seattle Seahawks vs (1) Arizona Cardinals: This should be a great game between these two rivals, but home field advantage will factor here and the Cardinals will be in the NFC title game for the second straight season.
Pick: Cardinals

(3) Green Bay Packers vs (2) Carolina Panthers: This should be a fun playoff game to watch between arguably the leagues best quarterbacks. The Panthers defense and Cam Newton will be the difference here.
Pick: Panthers

Championship Round
(2) New England Patriots vs (1) Pittsburgh Steelers: This should be a classic game between two future hall of fame quarterbacks. The Steelers have more depth offensively and they'll be in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in Big Ben's career.
Pick: Steelers

(2) Carolina Panthers vs (1) Arizona Cardinals: Here we have a rematch of last years NFC title game. Both teams are great on both ends, but the Cardinals explosive offense will be the difference and Bruce Arians's team will go to the Super Bowl to set up a Super Bowl XLIII rematch.
Pick: Cardinals

Super Bowl LI
(A1) Pittsburgh Steelers vs (N1) Arizona Cardinals: This should be such a fun Super Bowl with two great offenses and two decent defenses. This was a tough call, but Big Ben's experience in these types of games will be the difference in this as he wins his third Super Bowl ring.
Pick: Steelers

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