Here are my picks for week five of the 2018 NFL season.
Thursday, October 4th
Indianapolis Colts (1-3) vs New England Patriots (2-2)- 8:20, FOX/NFLN: The Colts are coming off a tough overtime divisional home loss against the Houston Texans in which Frank Reich foolishly went for it on fourth down in his own territory. The Pats are coming off a big time bounce back divisional home win over the Miami Dolphins. This should be a fun game with Andrew Luck getting better by the week and the Pats looking better too. Pats should win this high scoring affair at home with Josh Gordon and perhaps Julian Edelman playing too.
Prediction: New England 38, Indianapolis 30.
Sunday, October 7th
Tennessee Titans (3-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-3)- 1:00, CBS: The Titans are coming off an overtime home win over the reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Bills are coming off a road loss in Green Bay against the Packers. This screams "letdown" and "trap". Bills in an upset special led by Josh Allen.
Prediction: Buffalo 26, Tennessee 20.
Miami Dolphins (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)- 1:00, CBS: The Dolphins are coming off an awful divisional road loss in Foxboro against the Patriots in which Ryan Tannehill was replaced by Brock Osweiler. The Bengals are coming off a nice road win in Atlanta against the Falcons. The Bengals could be getting Joe Mixon back and that's huge for their offense and I love the Bengals here to win big.
Prediction: Cincinnati 34, Miami 17.
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-3)- 1:00, FOX: The Ravens are coming off a huge primetime divisional road win in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. The Browns are coming off a difficult overtime road loss in Oakland against the Raiders. This is a more compelling game then it looked a month ago and give me Baker Mayfield and the Browns to pull off this mild upset at home.
Prediction: Cleveland 27, Baltimore 23.
Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-3)- 1:00, FOX: The Packers are coming off a home win over the Buffalo Bills. The Lions are coming off a heartbreaking loss in Arlington against the Cowboys. The Packers are dealing with injuries everywhere whether it's Randall Cobb, DeVante Adams, or Ty Montgomery. I like Matthew Stafford and the Lions at home.
Prediction: Detroit 24, Green Bay 16.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)- 1:00, CBS: The Jags are coming off a home win over the New York Jets. The Chiefs are coming off an incredible come from behind Monday night divisional road win in Denver against the Broncos. Patrick Mahomes is certainly the MVP favorite right now and despite how good the Jags defense has been, Mahomes has just been that great. Chiefs win a close one at home.
Prediction: Kansas City 27, Jacksonville 20.
Denver Broncos (2-2) at New York Jets (1-3)- 1:00, CBS: The Broncos are coming off a tough Monday night divisional home loss against Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Jets are coming off a road loss in Jacksonville against the Jaguars. Big spot here for Sam Darnold and the Jets or else you'll start to hear whispers about Todd Bowles's future. Jets take it at home and take advantage of the Broncos on the east coast for a 1PM start.
Prediction: NY Jets 23, Denver 20.
Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)- 1:00, FOX: This could very well be a loser leaves town match. The Falcons are coming off a heartbreaking home loss against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers are coming off a bad Sunday night divisional home loss against the Baltimore Ravens. Reports out that Le'Veon Bell will be back by week seven sans a trade, but both teams are desperate and a case could be made that the Falcons need this game more. Give me Matt Ryan and the Falcons to light up that Steelers defense in a high scoring affair.
Prediction: Atlanta 38, Pittsburgh 33.
New York Giants (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-1)- 1:00, FOX: The Giants are coming off a rough home loss against the New Orleans Saints in which their offense was pretty much a no show. The Panthers are coming off a bye and two weeks ago, they beat the Cincinnati Bengals at home. I absolutely love the Panthers so much and that pass rush to get to Eli Manning that this is a lock.
Prediction: Carolina 27, NY Giants 13.
Oakland Raiders (1-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)- 4:05, CBS: The Raiders are coming off an overtime home win over the Cleveland Browns. The Chargers are coming off a narrow home win over the lowly San Francisco 49ers. The Chargers are a team that tends to play down to opponents despite winning and I think that's the case here.
Prediction: Los Angeles 28, Oakland 24.
Minnesota Vikings (1-2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)- 4:25, FOX: Here we have a rematch of last seasons NFC title game. The Vikings are coming off a tough Thursday night road loss in Los Angeles against the Rams. The Eagles are coming off a brutal overtime road loss in Tennessee against the Titans. The Vikings defense hasn't been good since Everson Griffen has been out and I like Carson Wentz and the Eagles here at home.
Prediction: Philadelphia 30, Minnesota 24.
Arizona Cardinals (0-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)- 4:25, FOX: The Cardinals are coming off a heartbreaking divisional home loss against the Seattle Seahawks in which Sebastian Janikowski kicked the game winning field goal as time expired. The 49ers are coming off a narrow road loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers. CJ Bethard wasn't all that bad last week, but it's still CJ Bethard. Give me Josh Rosen and the Cards to get their first win of the year.
Prediction: Arizona 20, San Francisco 16.
Los Angeles Rams (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)- 4:25, FOX: The Rams are coming off a great Thursday night home win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Seahawks are coming off a road win in Glendale against the Cardinals on the Janikowski game winner. The Seahawks "Twelfth Man" will be a no factor here as the Rams go and win big in Seattle.
Prediction: Los Angeles 33, Seattle 20.
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)- 8:20, NBC: The Cowboys are coming off a big home win over the Detroit Lions on a game winning field goal as time expired. The Texans are coming off a big overtime divisional road win in Indianapolis against the Colts. This is perhaps a game where the losing coach loses his job and I'd say Bill O'Brien survives this week over Jason Garrett as DeShaun Watson leads the way for the Texans.
Prediction: Houston 27, Dallas 19.
Monday, October 8th
Washington Redskins (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (3-1)- 8:15, ESPN: The Redskins are coming off their bye and two weeks ago they beat the Green Bay Packers at home. The Saints are coming off a road win in East Rutherford against the New York Giants. Drew Brees is awfully close to becoming the NFL's all time leading passer and I believe he gets that and a win to go with it.
Prediction: New Orleans 34, Washington 20.
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