Monday, June 12, 2017

2017 MLB Mock Draft: Fifth Edition

Here is my fifth edition of my 2017 MLB Mock draft.

1. Minnesota Twins- Kyle Wright, Pitcher, Vanderbilt: Wright’s draft stock plummeted through the first month and a half of the season but has flown up recently after he has put together a string of impressive performances. There have still been some inconsistencies but Wright is a good high-floor prospect with a higher ceiling as a pitcher than Brendan McCay.

2. Cincinnati Reds- Hunter Greene, Pitcher/Outfielder/Shortstop, Notre Dame HS (CA): The Reds are said to be in heaviest on McKay and Greene, and this scenario, they'd have their pick of the two. Greene is the consensus top prospect in the draft class -- you won't find many who think it's all that close either -- and even while rebuilding, the one thing the Reds lack in the farm system is a prospect with true "star" ceiling. Greene would address that.

3. San Diego Padres- MacKenzie Gore, Pitcher, Whiteville HS (NC): Gore has shot up the boards this season and is now widely regarded as the best high school left hander available. Some scouts have even put him ahead of Hunter Greene as a prospect. Gore’s fastball sits in the mid-90’s and he has a nasty curveball that grades as a plus pitch.

4. Tampa Bay Rays- Brendan McKay, Pitcher/First Baseman, Louisville: On the mound McKay’s velocity has dipped a bit over the last month but he has also unveiled a cutter that has a ton of potential so teams may be able to look past the velocity issue. As a hitter, McKay has been on fire all season and has sparked a healthy debate about his eventual role in pro ball. Either way, McKay is a pretty sure bet to get to the big leagues quickly.

5. Atlanta Braves- Royce Lewis, Shortstop/Outfielder, JSerra Catholic HS (CA): Lewis does everything well, his best tool being his speed. He is a good hitter with a feel for the barrel and has solid power upside. Defensively he is a good athlete with great range but scouts feel his arm may not be strong enough to stay at short. I think he will be just fine and I’m willing to bet he’ll stay on the infield in the long run, but even if he doesn’t he would be an excellent center fielder in pro ball.

6. Oakland Athletics- Austin Beck, Outfielder, North Davidson HS (NC): A knee injury prevented Beck from playing in summer showcases last year, though he's shown the same tremendous tools this spring, including top-of-the-line bat speed and power potential. He also has a rocket arm and is an above-average runner. Beck is one of the most tooled-up players in the draft class.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks- JB Bukauskas, Pitcher, North Carolina: The Diamondbacks are in a nice position to sit tight and see who falls to them. Arizona drafted Bukauskas out of high school, so the organization knows him well along with scouting him recently. Bukauskas could be a quick riser in the Diamondbacks' system.

8. Philadelphia Phillies- Shane Baz, Pitcher, Concordia Lutheran HS (TX): Bukauskas and Beck have been talked about with this pick, but if neither are available than the Phillies could turn to one of the aforementioned Cavaliers teammates should they decide to draft a bat here. With an electric personality in tow, the TCU commit features a 98 mph fastball with sink and consistency, as well as a 84-88 mph cutter as an out pitch. After going prep with No. 1 overall pick Mickey Moniak last year, the Phillies could go that way once more.

9. Milwaukee Brewers- Jordan Adell, Outfielder, Ballard HS (KY): Adell has excellent speed on the base paths and in the outfield with a plus arm and great instincts. He has big time raw power and the ability to hit the ball hard to all fields. The concern with Adell is whether or not he can cut down the strikeouts; many think he can.

10. Los Angeles Angels- Pavin Smith, First Baseman, Virginia: Think about this: Smith finished his season with 13 homers and only 12 strikeouts, to go with a .342 average and .427 on-base percentage. That’s kind of crazy, right? He might not have the raw upside of some of the players here, but he’s about as polished of a college bat as you’ll find.

11. Chicago White Sox- Jeren Kendall, Outfielder, Vanderbilt: If Kendall didn't swing and miss as much as he does, we'd likely be calling him a slam-dunk 1:1 selection--the other tools are just that good. He's got plus raw power from the left side with plus-plus speed, a plus arm, and a chance to be plus in center field. The only question is just how much the whiffs will impact his hit tool.

12. Pittsburgh Pirates- Adam Haseley, Outfielder, Virginia: This would be a total steal here for the Buccos. Haseley, who has emerged as the best college outfielder in the class. The right-handed hitter lacks a great deal of power but is coveted for his strong contact ability and athleticism. Some talent evaluators think he has the ability to be a five-tool player once he migrates to pro ball.

13. Miami Marlins- DL Hall, Pitcher, Valdosta HS (GA): The Marlins snapped up Braxton Garrett with its top pick last draft, and they’ve been seriously linked to another prep lefty this year in D.L. Hall. The 6-foot lefty is lauded for his command and analytically inclined evaluators love the spin rate on his sweeping curveball. The Florida State commit yields comparisons to Scott Kazmir. Other top college arms like UCLA’s Griffin Canning and New Mexico prep lefty Trevor Rogers also receive mentions for this pick.

14. Kansas City Royals- Trevor Rogers, Pitcher, Carlsbad HS (TX): Rogers has been rumored as high as No. 3 overall to the Padres, though that smoke died down quickly. He's also been tied to a bunch of other places, but it's well-known in the industry that the Royals are very heavy on the prep lefty from New Mexico, who has drawn comparisons to a young Andrew Miller.

15. Houston Astros- Alex Faedo, Pitcher, Florida: With their core of young stars, the Astros are going to be contenders for many years to come. Makes sense they’d want more immediate help at the top of the draft, with college hitters or pitchers. They’d be happy if Faedo is still available here, and if he’s not, guys like UCLA’s Griffin Canning and Mizzou’s Tanner Houck are options. Faedo hasn’t had the greatest season, but the raw stuff is there.

16. New York Yankees- Nick Pratto, First Baseman, Huntington Beach HS (CA): The Yanks have a known affinity for Southern California players -- four of their last six first-round picks were SoCal players -- which leads them to Pratto. He is considered the most advanced high school bat in the draft class and New York won't pass that up, even though the track record of high school first basemen taken in the first round isn't very good.

17. Seattle Mariners- David Peterson, Pitcher, Oregon: "Dominant" doesn't even begin to describe how Peterson has been for Oregon this spring; as the huge lefthander has had no trouble whatsoever in the PAC-12. He works 90-94 mph on most nights with a potentially plus slider and plus command, and looks to be a pretty safe mid-rotation piece at this point.

18. Detroit Tigers- Tanner Houck, Pitcher, Missouri: Houck has the big fastball and the durable frame to develop into an impact starter. There are also questions about his secondary stuff and his mechanics, though, leaving the Missouri ace as an intriguing upside play here toward the back of the first round.

19. San Francisco Giants- Evan White, First Baseman/Outfielder, Kentucky: The Giants could go best player available and land an intriguing talent like White as he could easily go higher. He has a well-rounded approach at the plate with the athletic ability to move to the outfield if necessary. White could go near the top 10, so this is a nice value for San Francisco.

20. New York Mets- Nate Pearson, Pitcher, UCF: Pearson is A mountain of a right-hander flamethrower. With a fastball that has touched 101-102, Pearson pitches at 93-98 mph and will show an above average curveball along with delivery components to start.

21. Baltimore Orioles- Jake Burger, First Baseman/Third Baseman, Missouri State: Burger has been the preeminent collegiate power bat over the last two years (though Iowa's Jake Adams has him beat this season); smashing 20+ HR's each of the last two seasons. He seems likely to slide over to first base, but offers plus plus raw power along with good feel to hit.

22. Toronto Blue Jays- Logan Warmorth, Shortstop, North Carolina: The Blue Jays pick twice in the first 30 selections, here and at No. 28 (compensation for losing Edwin Encarnacion), which gives them options. They’ve leaned college lately, and if Warmoth is still here, the college hitter with a good glove might be too much to resist.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers- Bubba Thompson, Outfielder, McGill-Toolen Catholic HS (CA): The Dodgers have been continually linked with the dual-sport superstar who is committed to Alabama to play strictly baseball. Thompson offers the type of high-impact athletic upside that few others in this class can, with the chops to be plus in the outfield long term and seriously advanced hitting tools.

24. Boston Red Sox- Keston Hiura, Second Baseman/Outfielder, UC Irvine: Hiura in the preseason was considered a sure-fire top 10 selection before concerns about his defensive position came up due to his elbow injury that has limited him to DH this spring. Hiura profiles very similar to the Chicago Cubs’ Ian Happ, albeit more of a hit over power profile, though plenty of both. Hiura should be able to handle second base once his elbow is healthy, and that would be a big addition into a depleted Pirates system.

25. Washington Nationals- Seth Romero, Pitcher, Houston: The Nationals are sitting here near the bottom of the first round and if Romero falls into their laps, I don’t see a situation where they don’t take him. Romero did the damage to his own reputation with suspensions and being dismissed from his squad at the University of Houston so there is absolutely risk in taking him, but there is also very real upside if they can get a handle on him as he was a probably a top-15 selection or better before he got kicked off the team.

26. Texas Rangers- Sam Carlson, Pitcher, Burnsville HS (TN): Carlson had a decent showing over the Summer showing three good pitches, but most scouts felt he needed quite a bit of work before being ready to pitch at the professional level. Then this Spring happened and Carlson has flown up the boards. His fastball has added velocity, his slider has been sharper, he’s been locating his pitches well and his changeup is advanced for a prep pitcher.

27. Chicago Cubs- Nick Allen, Shortstop, Francis W. Parker HS (CL): The undersized shortstop is the best defender overall in the class with a headiness for the game not seen often from a prep player. He's not going to offer much power, but he can hit, run, and will be a premium defender for years at shortstop.

28. Toronto Blue Jays- Alex Lange, Pitcher, LSU:  In the two years since, Lange has refined his overall command and improved his changeup to the point that it's a passable third pitching alongside his mid-90s fastball and a hammer curve that ranks as one of the better breaking pitches in the class. That being said, he's prone to overthrowing at times and has some effort to his delivery, so there's a chance that strong two-pitch mix is utilized out of the bullpen before all is said and done.

29. Texas Rangers- Matt Sauer, Pitcher, Righetti HS (CA): Sauer is a big kid with a big arm. He has a lot of projection remaining which makes for an exciting profile. Sauer works with a four-pitch mix, highlighted by a good fastball/slider combo. The slider is an out pitch and has a lot of late life while the fastball sits in the low 90s with a lot of room for more as he fills out and gains more experience. He also owns a changeup and a curveball but they are works in progress at this point.

30. Chicago Cubs- Clarke Schmidt, Pitcher, South Carolina: Schmidt had been cruising through the first half of the season and rising up draft boards with eye popping stuff when he found out he would need Tommy John surgery. Schmidt brings a lot to the table including a plus fastball and off speed stuff that was greatly improved from years past before going down with the injury.

Supplemental First Round
31. Tampa Bay Rays- Tristen Lutz, Outfielder, Martin HS (TX): There may not be a more powerful high school bat in the 2017 draft than Lutz. While he may not stick in center field as a pro, he has the athleticism to play there initially, which leads to just how well he should handle defense at the corner when he does move there. Lutz does have the traditional right field profile with a power arm and power bat. At 6’3″ and 220 pounds, he looks like he has been working with professional training for years already, and adding that pro coaching to his possible double-plus future power could allow him to be a very special bat indeed.

32. Cincinnati Reds- Drew Waters, Outfielder, Etowah HS (GA): Waters can hit from both sides with the tools to stay in center field long term. Cincinnati could use a college bat to fall to them here, but none looks likely to do so. That leaves prep outfielders aplenty.

33. Oakland Athletics- Corbin Martin, Pitcher, Texas A&M: The draft gets awful light on college bats at this point; so the A's go for a college arm here in Martin of Texas A&M, who has really flourished since joining the Aggie rotation at the start of conference play.

34. Milwaukee Brewers- Heliot Ramos, Outfielder, Leadership Christian Academy (PR): Ramos is an outfielder from Puerto Rico with a lot of tools. There are lots of plus grades on Ramos' scouting report; though the rawness is pretty severe and makes him a boom-or-bust type of selection.

35. Minnesota Twins- Brent Rooker, First Base, Mississippi State: This would be local fave Sam Carlson if he falls this far, but that seems unlikely. With another pick coming at 37, Minnesota could save up for a run at a high-dollar tough sign such as Brady McConnell or Mark Vientos by saving some money with an older college player at 35.

36. Miami Marlins- Jeter Downs, Shortstop, Pace HS (FL): Downs has had a fantastic spring, pushing him up boards by showing more power than he'd shown on the circuit along with the tools to stay at shortstop.

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