Monday, June 12, 2017

2017 MLB Mock Draft: Final Edition

Here is my final edition of my 2017 MLB Mock Draft.

1. Minnesota Twins- Brendan McKay, Pitcher/First Baseman, Louisville: On the mound McKay’s velocity has dipped a bit over the last month but he has also unveiled a cutter that has a ton of potential so teams may be able to look past the velocity issue. As a hitter, McKay has been on fire all season and has sparked a healthy debate about his eventual role in pro ball. Either way, McKay is a pretty sure bet to get to the big leagues quickly.

2. Cincinnati Reds- Hunter Greene, Pitcher/Outfielder/Shortstop, Notre Dame HS (CA): The Reds are said to be in heaviest on McKay and Greene, and this scenario, they'd have their pick of the two. Greene is the consensus top prospect in the draft class -- you won't find many who think it's all that close either -- and even while rebuilding, the one thing the Reds lack in the farm system is a prospect with true "star" ceiling. Greene would address that.

3. San Diego Padres- MacKenzie Gore, Pitcher, Whiteville HS (NC): Gore has shot up the boards this season and is now widely regarded as the best high school left hander available. Some scouts have even put him ahead of Hunter Greene as a prospect. Gore’s fastball sits in the mid-90’s and he has a nasty curveball that grades as a plus pitch.

4. Tampa Bay Rays- Bubba Thompson, Outfielder, McGill-Toolen Catholic HS (CA): Tampa has played this pick as close to the vest as any team, with speculation rising that the Rays will cut a deal. One scout said the biggest reason for the rise of Alabama prep outfielder Bubba Thompson is his improved hitting ability, saying he’s improved his hitting tool by two grades in the last six months.

5. Atlanta Braves- Kyle Wright, Pitcher, Vanderbilt: Although the Braves would be happy to save some cash for the remainder of the draft, seeing Wright fall to #5 would be a dream. The Braves are prepared to compete in two years and Wright could be a staple in the rotation by then seeing that he may be the most polished arm in the draft.

6. Oakland Athletics- Keston Hiura, Second Baseman/Outfielder, UC Irvine: Hiura in the preseason was considered a sure-fire top 10 selection before concerns about his defensive position came up due to his elbow injury that has limited him to DH this spring. Hiura profiles very similar to the Chicago Cubs’ Ian Happ, albeit more of a hit over power profile, though plenty of both. Hiura should be able to handle second base once his elbow is healthy, and that would be a big addition into a depleted Pirates system.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks- Royce Lewis, Shortstop/Outfielder, JSerra Catholic HS (CA): Lewis does everything well, his best tool being his speed. He is a good hitter with a feel for the barrel and has solid power upside. Defensively he is a good athlete with great range but scouts feel his arm may not be strong enough to stay at short. I think he will be just fine and I’m willing to bet he’ll stay on the infield in the long run, but even if he doesn’t he would be an excellent center fielder in pro ball.

8. Philadelphia Phillies- Adam Haseley, Outfielder, Virginia: Haseley, who has emerged as the best college outfielder in the class. The right-handed hitter lacks a great deal of power but is coveted for his strong contact ability and athleticism. Some talent evaluators think he has the ability to be a five-tool player once he migrates to pro ball.

9. Milwaukee Brewers- Jordan Adell, Outfielder, Ballard HS (KY): Adell has excellent speed on the base paths and in the outfield with a plus arm and great instincts. He has big time raw power and the ability to hit the ball hard to all fields. The concern with Adell is whether or not he can cut down the strikeouts; many think he can.

10. Los Angeles Angels- Alex Faedo, Pitcher, Florida: The Angels are big fans of Adell and Beck, and are in on a few college hitters, along with UCLA righty Griffin Canning. Here I have them going with a different college righty in Faedo. The Florida hurler was seen as a potential No. 1 overall pick after a brilliant sophomore year. His junior season has been inconsistent but his stuff is phenomenal.

11. Chicago White Sox- Jeren Kendall, Outfielder, Vanderbilt: If Kendall didn't swing and miss as much as he does, we'd likely be calling him a slam-dunk 1:1 selection--the other tools are just that good. He's got plus raw power from the left side with plus-plus speed, a plus arm, and a chance to be plus in center field. The only question is just how much the whiffs will impact his hit tool.

12. Pittsburgh Pirates- Austin Beck, Outfielder, North Davidson HS (NC): A knee injury prevented Beck from playing in summer showcases last year, though he's shown the same tremendous tools this spring, including top-of-the-line bat speed and power potential. He also has a rocket arm and is an above-average runner. Beck is one of the most tooled-up players in the draft class and this would be a steal for the Pirates.

13. Miami Marlins- Shane Baz, Pitcher, Concordia Lutheran HS (TX): At 6’3″ and 190 pounds, the Texas prep righty has good size with some projection left. He throws hard, touching 98 mph this spring and sitting in the 92 to 96 range. The TCU commit is a great athlete who also has a really nice cutter and a good curveball, with a developing changeup. He has ace upside.

14. Kansas City Royals- Trevor Rogers, Pitcher, Carlsbad HS (TX): Rogers has been rumored as high as No. 3 overall to the Padres, though that smoke died down quickly. He's also been tied to a bunch of other places, but it's well-known in the industry that the Royals are very heavy on the prep lefty from New Mexico, who has drawn comparisons to a young Andrew Miller.

15. Houston Astros- JB Bukauskas, Pitcher, North Carolina: This would be an absolute steal for the Astros, who are very close to being a World Series contender for years to come. The fact that Bukauskas doesn’t throw a ton of fastballs wouldn’t deter the Astros, whose major league staff throws fewer fastballs than any other.

16. New York Yankees- Evan White, First Baseman/Outfielder, Kentucky: A line-drive hitter with good command of the strike zone, White is an excellent defensive first baseman who has also logged innings at the corner outfield spots. His power remains a work in progress, but he'd be a fine addition to a loaded Yankees system.

17. Seattle Mariners- David Peterson, Pitcher, Oregon: "Dominant" doesn't even begin to describe how Peterson has been for Oregon this spring; as the huge lefthander has had no trouble whatsoever in the PAC-12. He works 90-94 mph on most nights with a potentially plus slider and plus command, and looks to be a pretty safe mid-rotation piece at this point.

18. Detroit Tigers- DL Hall, Pitcher, Valdosta HS (GA): If Pratto and/or Hall get here, the Tigers will take one of them. In this case it’s Hall, who can hit the mid-90s with his fastball, has a plus curve and possesses outstanding mechanics for a lefty. He’s not a big kid at 6’0″ and 190 pounds, but there is some projection left.

19. San Francisco Giants- Pavin Smith, First Baseman, Virginia: Think about this: Smith finished his season with 13 homers and only 12 strikeouts, to go with a .342 average and .427 on-base percentage. That’s kind of crazy, right? He might not have the raw upside of some of the players here, but he’s about as polished of a college bat as you’ll find. This would be a total steal for the Giants.

20. New York Mets- Griffin Canning, Pitcher, UCLA: Canning is one of the toughest players to peg in this year's draft. As a high-floor college arm with advanced pitchability and a four-pitch repertoire headlined by one of the better changeups in the class, he has a very similar profile to former Florida right-hander Logan Shore.

21. Baltimore Orioles- Tanner Houck, Pitcher, Missouri: Houck has the big fastball and the durable frame to develop into an impact starter. There are also questions about his secondary stuff and his mechanics, though, leaving the Missouri ace as an intriguing upside play here toward the back of the first round.

22. Toronto Blue Jays- Logan Warmorth, Shortstop, North Carolina: The Blue Jays pick twice in the first 30 selections, here and at No. 28 (compensation for losing Edwin Encarnacion), which gives them options. They’ve leaned college lately, and if Warmoth is still here, the college hitter with a good glove might be too much to resist.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers- Jake Burger, First Baseman/Third Baseman, Missouri State: Burger has been the preeminent collegiate power bat over the last two years (though Iowa's Jake Adams has him beat this season); smashing 20+ HR's each of the last two seasons. He seems likely to slide over to first base, but offers plus plus raw power along with good feel to hit.

24. Boston Red Sox- Heliot Ramos, Outfielder, Leadership Christian Academy (PR): Ramos is an outfielder from Puerto Rico with a lot of tools. There are lots of plus grades on Ramos' scouting report; though the rawness is pretty severe and makes him a boom-or-bust type of selection.

25. Washington Nationals- Seth Romero, Pitcher, Houston: The Nationals are sitting here near the bottom of the first round and if Romero falls into their laps, I don’t see a situation where they don’t take him. Romero did the damage to his own reputation with suspensions and being dismissed from his squad at the University of Houston so there is absolutely risk in taking him, but there is also very real upside if they can get a handle on him as he was a probably a top-15 selection or better before he got kicked off the team.

26. Texas Rangers- Nate Pearson, Pitcher, UCF: Pearson is A mountain of a right-hander flamethrower. With a fastball that has touched 101-102, Pearson pitches at 93-98 mph and will show an above average curveball along with delivery components to start.

27. Chicago Cubs- Nick Allen, Shortstop, Francis W. Parker HS (CL): The undersized shortstop is the best defender overall in the class with a headiness for the game not seen often from a prep player. He's not going to offer much power, but he can hit, run, and will be a premium defender for years at shortstop.

28. Toronto Blue Jays- Nick Pratto, First Baseman, Huntington Beach HS (CA): sweet swing has elevated him to first-round status. At 6’1″ and 193 pounds he already has a solid build, with good range at first base that should make him a plus defender. Pratto pitches in high school too, but his bat is what’s getting him to the majors.

29. Texas Rangers- Tristen Lutz, Outfielder, Martin HS (TX): There may not be a more powerful high school bat in the 2017 draft than Lutz. While he may not stick in center field as a pro, he has the athleticism to play there initially, which leads to just how well he should handle defense at the corner when he does move there. Lutz does have the traditional right field profile with a power arm and power bat. At 6’3″ and 220 pounds, he looks like he has been working with professional training for years already, and adding that pro coaching to his possible double-plus future power could allow him to be a very special bat indeed.

30. Chicago Cubs- Clarke Schmidt, Pitcher, South Carolina: Schmidt had been cruising through the first half of the season and rising up draft boards with eye popping stuff when he found out he would need Tommy John surgery. Schmidt brings a lot to the table including a plus fastball and off speed stuff that was greatly improved from years past before going down with the injury.

Supplemental First Round
31. Tampa Bay Rays- Jeter Downs, Shortstop, Pace HS (FL): Downs has had a fantastic spring, pushing him up boards by showing more power than he'd shown on the circuit along with the tools to stay at shortstop.

32. Cincinnati Reds- Sam Carlson, Pitcher, Burnsville HS (TN): Carlson had a decent showing over the Summer showing three good pitches, but most scouts felt he needed quite a bit of work before being ready to pitch at the professional level. Then this Spring happened and Carlson has flown up the boards. His fastball has added velocity, his slider has been sharper, he’s been locating his pitches well and his changeup is advanced for a prep pitcher.

33. Oakland Athletics- Alex Lange, Pitcher, LSU:  In the two years since, Lange has refined his overall command and improved his changeup to the point that it's a passable third pitching alongside his mid-90s fastball and a hammer curve that ranks as one of the better breaking pitches in the class. That being said, he's prone to overthrowing at times and has some effort to his delivery, so there's a chance that strong two-pitch mix is utilized out of the bullpen before all is said and done.

34. Milwaukee Brewers- Drew Waters, Outfielder, Etowah HS (GA): Remember what we said about the Brewers and outfielders with great tools? Well, here's another one. Switch-hitting Waters fits the bill with plus speed, a strong arm and projectable pop out of the leadoff spot.

35. Minnesota Twins- Brent Rooker, First Base, Mississippi State: This would be local fave Sam Carlson if he falls this far, but that seems unlikely. With another pick coming at 37, Minnesota could save up for a run at a high-dollar tough sign such as Brady McConnell or Mark Vientos by saving some money with an older college player at 35.

36. Miami Marlins- Matt Sauer, Pitcher, Righetti HS (CA): Sauer is a big kid with a big arm. He has a lot of projection remaining which makes for an exciting profile. Sauer works with a four-pitch mix, highlighted by a good fastball/slider combo. The slider is an out pitch and has a lot of late life while the fastball sits in the low 90s with a lot of room for more as he fills out and gains more experience. He also owns a changeup and a curveball but they are works in progress at this point.

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