Thursday, June 22, 2017

2017 NBA Mock Draft: Final Edition

Here is the final edition of my 2017 NBA Mock Draft.

1. Philadelphia 76ers (from Boston Celtics via Brooklyn Nets)- Markelle Fultz, Point Guard, Washington: It’s time to start chasing some results in Philly. By adding Fultz, the Sixers have a core built for serious contention in the future. Washington’s absence from the NCAA tournament will raise some concerns, but not enough for the 76ers to pass on his upside. With Fultz and Ben Simmons both set to start, the race for the 2018 NBA Rookie of the Year award is already interesting.

2. Los Angeles Lakers- Lonzo Ball, Point Guard, UCLA: Did anyone notice Lakers president Magic Johnson didn't look too upset about not getting the No. 1 pick? That's because, I think, he now knows the pressure is off. He doesn't have to pick between Ball and Fultz. Now he can just take Ball once Fultz is off the board. And the Lakers are suddenly interesting again, if nothing else.


3. Boston Celtics (from Philadelphia 76ers via Sacramento Kings)- Jayson Tatum, Small Forward, Duke: Expect more trade discussions to take place involving this selection, but if the Celtics keep their pick, expect them to draft a wing. This could be Josh Jackson (who may have greater value in a deal), but the better fit for Boston would be Tatum, thanks to his potential to space the floor, play some power forward and become a go-to scorer down the line. Jackson’s well-publicized decision not to work out for the Celtics is worth noting.

4. Phoenix Suns- Josh Jackson, Small Forward, Kansas: Jackson is too good on both ends to pass up if he slides to four. In that case, here's to betting that Phoenix stays committed to Eric Bledsoe and grabs a two-way swingman to complement Booker's offense with a new-age Iguodala who can play every game at 120 MPH. Jackson's jumper will be a work in progress, but if he finds a team that doesn't need him to carry the offense, he could be a lot of fun. 

5. Sacramento Kings (from Philadelphia 76ers)- De'Aaron Fox, Point Guard, Kentucky: The Kings are desperately in need of a young point guard with a high ceiling, and Fox is exactly that. At 6-4, he has nice size for the position and is super-fast with the ball. He was sensational in Kentucky's Sweet 16 win over UCLA while finishing with 39 points. Fox and Buddy Hield would be a nice back court.

6. Orlando Magic- Dennis Smith Jr, Point Guard, North Carolina State: The Magic haven't had a coherent identity in several years, so I'm worried about sending Smith here. If you asked, "What's the NBA version of NC State?" I'm pretty sure the answer is Orlando. Likewise, there are choices to make elsewhere on the roster that'll go a long way toward determining exactly what the Magic want from this draft. Elfrid Payton probably isn't the answer, though, and while the team transitions to new management under John Hammond and Jeff Weltman, it would make sense to grab the player with the best chance at stardom. At 6, that's Smith.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves- Jonathan Issacs, Small Forward, Florida State: The Timberwolves could take Isaac, play him with Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, and now we're talking about something with big potential. Minnesota would then have a core of Isaac, Towns, Wiggins, Zach LaVine and Ricky Rubio. Those are some nice pieces that could soon have the Timberwolves advancing in the Western Conference Playoffs.

8. New York Knicks- Frank Ntilikina, Point Guard, France: French Frank is the biggest wild card in the top 10. He played limited minutes for his team in France and scored a meager 5 points per game. It'll likely take a few years before he's ready to produce consistently in the NBA. On the other hand, he's 6’5” with long arms and quick feet, and at the very least he projects as a terrific perimeter defender. It's worth it for the Knicks to gamble on a project player here.

9. Dallas Mavericks- Malik Monk, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, Kentucky: Monk might give Dallas the most value and flexibility of any remaining prospect. The Mavericks would incorporate Kentucky’s marksman beautifully into their spread sets and weak-side pick-and-roll options. He’d flourish in Rick Carlisle’s system and empower the likes of Harrison Barnes and Seth Curry.

10. Sacramento Kings (from New Orleans Pelicans)- Lauri Markkanen, Power Forward, Arizona: With a potential franchise point guard already on the way, the Kings can address their frontcourt with pick No. 10. Markkanen is the logical choice as the first true post player to come off the board, giving Sacramento two players who complement each other nicely. While the Arizona freshman has clear defensive deficiencies, his impressive shooting numbers—42.3 percent from 3-point range last year—are tough to pass on. If Markkanen can learn to be a passable defender at the next level, he could be an impact player for years to come.

11. Charlotte Hornets- Donovan Mitchell, Shooting Guard, Louisville: This is probably a little high for the Louisville guard, but the Hornets could use a dynamic scorer to take some of the burden. At the back end of the lottery, teams can't be worried about reaching; they just need to take the player they think works best for them.

12. Detroit Pistons- Zach Collins, Center, Gonzaga: The reason Zach Collins continues to rise up the boards is potential. He only played one year at Gonzaga, which is a small sample size, but his 65 percent shooting from the field, including 47 percent from deep, gives you a glimpse at his potential. Collins is the prototypical “new NBA big man” and he fits the mold almost to a T, as he runs the floor incredibly well for his size, creates spacing. He will need to add strength and play more basketball, but the potential is there.

13. Denver Nuggets- OJ Anubody, Small Forward, Indiana: Anunoby is a freak athlete who will likely spend the better part of the next decade harassing people on defense. He could've been a first round pick last year, too. He hurt his knee at Indiana this year so his stock is a little bit mysterious, and his offense is still a question mark. 

14. Miami Heat- John Collins, Power Forward, Wake Forest: Collins is high-ceiling frontcourt player who fills somewhat of a need. Collins was one of the most efficient scorers in college basketball last season; if he can develop more range on his shot, he'll be a steal at this point in the draft. His development under head coach Danny Manning from his freshman to his sophomore season was impressive.

15. Portland Trail Blazers- Jarrett Allen, Center, Texas: Allen spent most of the year overshadowed by bigger freshmen stars on better teams, but Allen quietly got much better as the year unfolded at Texas. He's still raw, and he may be a year or two from playing meaningful minutes, but he will get drafted top 30 because of Myles Turner comparisons alone. This would be a steal for Brooklyn.

16. Chicago Bulls- Justin Jackson, Small Forward, North Carolina: It’s hard to hate on Jackson too much after what he did in his junior year at UNC. He finally blossomed as a three-point shooter (105 makes at 37 percent) and shut down Malik Monk on defense in the Elite Eight. He’s also by far the oldest potential lottery pick this year and isn’t that athletic or that great of a shooter. I like him more if he can defend shooting guards rather than small forwards.

17. Milwaukee Bucks- Justin Patton, Center, Creighton: There's been plenty of attention paid to this as a point guard-heavy draft. But it's also one of the deepest drafts for talented young big men that we've seen in a long time. Although he needs to put on some muscle so he can hang with NBA bigs, Patton is a superb athlete for a 7-footer, and showed impressive offensive versatility at Creighton as well. He may take some time to fill his potential, but the potential is certainly there.

18. Indiana Pacers- Henry Giles, Power Forward/Center, Duke: The talk around the Pacers is that they want to find an ideal player to put next to burgeoning star Myles Turner. Whether they do that by trading Paul George or not, Giles has massive upside as a formerly presumed top pick whose history of knee surgeries will cause him to drop at least 10 spots.

19. Atlanta Hawks- Bam Adebayo, Power Forward/Center, Kentucky: Bam spent most of the college basketball season as a fixture in first-round projections, but a rough tournament saw him slip. He's been surging back up various mocks in recent weeks. His shooting is what's caught teams off guard—for example, there's more skill on display in this DraftExpress video than we saw in four months at Kentucky. The Hawks are staring down Paul Millsap's free agency and they just traded Dwight Howard; big man makes sense. And while Adebayo was a fringe first rounder when he was seen strictly as a rim runner, the possibility of perimeter skills might make him too hard to pass up here.

20. Portland Trail Blazers (from Memphis Grizzlies)- Terrance Ferguson, Shooting Guard, Australia: Ferguson, an Oklahoma native, was inconsistent while playing in Australia this season. But that shouldn't affect his standing with NBA scouts too much. He only shot 31.3 percent from 3-point range in 30 games. Not good. But that's not an accurate reflection of how well the former Arizona signee can actually shoot from beyond the arc.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder- DJ Wilson, Power Forward, Michigan: The Thunder are one of several teams in the 20s rumored to be high on Wilson. His shooting range, size and defensive versatility hold obvious appeal as the Thunder continue to search for the right pieces to support Russell Westbrook.

22. Brooklyn Nets (from Washington Wizards)- Ike Anigbogu, Center, UCLA: Anigbogu is perhaps the most unproven prospect that has first round potential. His stock’s been on the rise for a few weeks now, and I get a feeling some time will jump on him earlier then he should be taken. He only played 13 MPG as he battled injuries at UCLA, but he’s 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, and his potential is enticing.

23. Toronto Raptors- TJ Leaf, Power Forward, UCLA: Leaf averaged 16.3 points and 8.2 rebounds while shooting 46.6 percent from 3-point range this season. He was overshadowed by his teammates at UCLA but still a statistical monster. He's a perfect stretch-4 for the modern-day NBA.

24. Utah Jazz- Semi Ojeleye, Small Forward, SMU: Ojeleye started his college career at Duke, where he was just a bit player. But the 6-7 forward was tremendous at SMU this season. He averaged 19.0 points and 6.9 rebounds while leading the Mustangs to American Athletic Conference regular-season and tournament titles.

25. Orlando Magic (from Toronto Raptors via Los Angeles Clippers)- Jawun Evans, Point Guard, Oklahoma State: Evans is undersized at 5'11, but he's quick and creative, and he was a nightmare in the pick-and-roll at Oklahoma State. Those skills translate in the NBA. At worst, he'd be a fun spark off the bench. At best, his shooting improves—37% from three last year—and catches up with his ability to create off the dribble, and he becomes a real steal late in the first.

26. Portland Trail Blazers (from Cleveland Cavaliers)- Anzejs Pasecniks, Center, Latvia: I can't pretend to be a Pasečņiks expert, but this workout video is impressive, and he should land somewhere in the 20s. He's mobile, he's massive, and he's got good touch on his jumper. He'll be an enticing option for teams that don't necessarily need a rookie to matriculate to the league next year. If the Blazers keep all three of their picks, they'll fit that description. 

27. Los Angeles Lakers (from Brooklyn Nets via Boston Celtics)- Tyler Lydon, Small Forward, Syracuse: Lydon shot 40.0 percent from 3-point range in two seasons at Syracuse and averaged 13.2 points and 8.6 rebounds as a sophomore. He'll be a stretch-4 in the NBA and should be capable of cracking a rotation as a rookie thanks to that reliable jumper.

28. Los Angeles Lakers (from Houston Rockets)- Josh Hart, Shooting Guard, Villanova: Hart's offensive ceiling is limited, but he can knock down open looks, and he'd be able to defend either guard spot. He's also got a high basketball IQ that'll allow them to work in a number of different roles for a good team. Hart would make sense for the Lakers if they keep this pick.

29. San Antonio Spurs- Jordan Bell, Power Forward, Oregon: Bell is one of the best defensive prospects in the draft, and probably the best pick-and-roll defender of any big man on the board. What he lacks in size at forward (6'8"), he makes up for with wingspan (7'0") and excellent foot speed.

30. Utah Jazz (from Golden State Warriors)- Jonah Bolden, Power Forward, Australia: Bolden’s drastic 3-point improvement has driven his draft stock. He was just 9 of 36 (25 percent) on 3-pointers from the college arc in 2015-16, and he jumped to 68 of 168 (41 percent) from the deeper international arc this season. Streamlined mechanics and extra reps were the recipe for him to showcase his NBA potential. His shooting and slashing could be highly effective in a lineup next to Rudy Gobert or Gordon Hayward.

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