Monday, June 5, 2017

2017 MLB Mock Draft: Second Edition

Here is my second edition of my 2017 MLB Mock draft.

1. Minnesota Twins- Kyle Wright, Pitcher, Vanderbilt: Wright’s draft stock plummeted through the first month and a half of the season but has flown up recently after he has put together a string of impressive performances. There have still been some inconsistencies but Wright is a good high-floor prospect with a higher ceiling as a pitcher than Brendan McCay.

2. Cincinnati Reds- Brendan McKay, Pitcher/First Baseman, Louisville: On the mound McKay’s velocity has dipped a bit over the last month but he has also unveiled a cutter that has a ton of potential so teams may be able to look past the velocity issue. As a hitter, McKay has been on fire all season and has sparked a healthy debate about his eventual role in pro ball. Either way, McKay is a pretty sure bet to get to the big leagues quickly.

3. San Diego Padres- Hunter Greene, Pitcher, Notre Dame HS (CA): The Padres are heavily linked to Greene and all the research about their previous draft strategy is pretty much moot at this point. This would be the perfect situation for both parties so if Greene slips this far they are taking him.

4. Tampa Bay Rays- MacKenzie Gore, Pitcher, Whiteville HS (NC): Gore has shot up the boards this season and is now widely regarded as the best high school left hander available. Some scouts have even put him ahead of Hunter Greene as a prospect. Gore’s fastball sits in the mid-90’s and he has a nasty curveball that grades as a plus pitch.

5. Atlanta Braves- Royce Lewis, Shortstop/Outfielder, JSerra Catholic HS (CA): Lewis does everything well, his best tool being his speed. He is a good hitter with a feel for the barrel and has solid power upside. Defensively he is a good athlete with great range but scouts feel his arm may not be strong enough to stay at short. I think he will be just fine and I’m willing to bet he’ll stay on the infield in the long run, but even if he doesn’t he would be an excellent center fielder in pro ball.

6. Oakland Athletics- Austin Beck, Outfielder, North Davidson HS (NC): Beck has made a lot of loud contact this season and is likely the biggest riser on draft boards since the start of 2017. There is a lot of raw power and speed that does come with some risk. But he also has a busy swing, lack of track record, and previous knee injury.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks- JB Bukauskas, Pitcher, North Carolina: The Diamondbacks are in a nice position to sit tight and see who falls to them. Arizona drafted Bukauskas out of high school, so the organization knows him well along with scouting him recently. Bukauskas could be a quick riser in the Diamondbacks' system.

8. Philadelphia Phillies- Pavin Smith, First Baseman, Virginia: This will likely be Smith or Adam Haseley, his UVA teammate. Smith is perhaps the best college hitter in this draft class. He has an absurd 4.1% K rate this season and has walked 4 times more often than he’s struck out! Not only is he a phenomenal hitter but he has shown improved power and has played well defensively this year.

9. Milwaukee Brewers- Adam Haseley, Outfielder, Virginia: Haseley has been one of the fastest rising prospects this spring as he has shown five-tool ability. Supposedly, the Brewers would like to get a college bat, and Haseley has nice balance as hitter while hitting for average, improving power, and an impressive walk-vs-strikeout ratio.

10. Los Angeles Angels- Jordan Adell, Outfielder, Ballard HS (KY): Adell has excellent speed on the base paths and in the outfield with a plus arm and great instincts. He has big time raw power and the ability to hit the ball hard to all fields. The concern with Adell is whether or not he can cut down the strikeouts; many think he can.

11. Chicago White Sox- Jeren Kendall, Outfielder, Vanderbilt: If Kendall didn't swing and miss as much as he does, we'd likely be calling him a slam-dunk 1:1 selection--the other tools are just that good. He's got plus raw power from the left side with plus-plus speed, a plus arm, and a chance to be plus in center field. The only question is just how much the whiffs will impact his hit tool. 

12. Pittsburgh Pirates- Jake Burger, First Baseman/Third Baseman, Missouri State: Burger has been the preeminent collegiate power bat over the last two years (though Iowa's Jake Adams has him beat this season); smashing 20+ HR's each of the last two seasons. He seems likely to slide over to first base, but offers plus plus raw power along with good feel to hit. 

13. Miami Marlins- DL Hall, Pitcher, Valdosta HS (GA): The Marlins don't shy away from taking prep talent, and Hall has a ton of upside and ability. Miami has hit the high school ranks hard, including a southpaw last year with Braxton Garrett. Here's a pitcher to pair with Garrett.

14. Kansas City Royals- Alex Faedo, Pitcher, Florida: Faedo easily could go higher. He entered the 2017 process as a candidate to go No. 1, but his season was a bit of downer compared to the year before. The Royals need an ace in their farm system, and it wouldn't be surprising if he ends up being a steal who rises quickly to the majors.

15. Houston Astros- Shane Baz, Pitcher, Concordia Lutheran HS (TX): The Astros are said to be looking all over and are not zeroed in on a prep or college player, much less a bat or a pitcher. With a loaded major league roster, Houston can take a talented high school arm like Baz and be patient with his development. The other route I could see Houston going is a college pitcher who could reach the big club quickly to help the Astros' pursuit of a championship. 

16. New York Yankees- Sam Carlson, Pitcher, Burnsville HS (TN): Carlson had a decent showing over the Summer showing three good pitches, but most scouts felt he needed quite a bit of work before being ready to pitch at the professional level. Then this Spring happened and Carlson has flown up the boards. His fastball has added velocity, his slider has been sharper, he’s been locating his pitches well and his changeup is advanced for a prep pitcher.

17. Seattle Mariners- David Peterson, Pitcher, Oregon: "Dominant" doesn't even begin to describe how Peterson has been for Oregon this spring; as the huge lefthander has had no trouble whatsoever in the PAC-12. He works 90-94 mph on most nights with a potentially plus slider and plus command, and looks to be a pretty safe mid-rotation piece at this point.

18. Detroit Tigers- Nicholas Pratto, First Baseman, Huntington Beach HS (CA): The Tigers have been tied to their typical collection of hard-throwing righthanded arms, but we've also heard them linked with prep outfielder Drew Waters, Oregon's David Peterson, and Pratto. Considered by some to be the best prep bat in the class, Pratto would provide a significant boost to the Detroit farm system, which is really lacking in pure hitters at the moment.

19. San Francisco Giants- Evan White, First Baseman/Outfielder, Kentucky: The Giants could go best player available and land an intriguing talent like White as he could easily go higher. He has a well-rounded approach at the plate with the athletic ability to move to the outfield if necessary. White could go near the top 10, so this is a nice value for San Francisco.

20. New York Mets- Tanner Houck, Pitcher, Missouri: Houck has the big fastball and the durable frame to develop into an impact starter. There are also questions about his secondary stuff and his mechanics, though, leaving the Missouri ace as an intriguing upside play here toward the back of the first round.

21. Baltimore Orioles- Keston Hiura, Second Baseman/Outfielder, UC Irvine: The Orioles tend to go with a more conservative approach with college players. Hiura is a talented bat who could make it to Baltimore's first-round pick. Hiura has been ripping the ball to the tune of a .442 average. He's never hit below .330 in college. Hiura would be a top-15 pick if it weren't for an injury that is limiting him to DH this year. Some believe that injury will have to be corrected with Tommy John surgery. I think Hiura could be a massive steal for some team in the back half of the first round during the 2017 MLB Draft.

22. Toronto Blue Jays- Alex Lange, Pitcher, LSU:  In the two years since, Lange has refined his overall command and improved his changeup to the point that it's a passable third pitching alongside his mid-90s fastball and a hammer curve that ranks as one of the better breaking pitches in the class. That being said, he's prone to overthrowing at times and has some effort to his delivery, so there's a chance that strong two-pitch mix is utilized out of the bullpen before all is said and done.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers- Bubba Thompson, Outfielder, McGill-Toolen Catholic HS (CA): The Dodgers have been continually linked with the dual-sport superstar who is committed to Alabama to play strictly baseball. Thompson offers the type of high-impact athletic upside that few others in this class can, with the chops to be plus in the outfield long term and seriously advanced hitting tools.

24. Boston Red Sox- Griffin Canning, Pitcher, UCLA: Canning is one of the toughest players to peg in this year's draft. As a high-floor college arm with advanced pitchability and a four-pitch repertoire headlined by one of the better changeups in the class, he has a very similar profile to former Florida right-hander Logan Shore.

25. Washington Nationals- Seth Romero, Pitcher, Houston: The Nationals are sitting here near the bottom of the first round and if Romero falls into their laps, I don’t see a situation where they don’t take him. Romero did the damage to his own reputation with suspensions and being dismissed from his squad at the University of Houston so there is absolutely risk in taking him, but there is also very real upside if they can get a handle on him as he was a probably a top-15 selection or better before he got kicked off the team.

26. Texas Rangers- Nick Allen, Shortstop, Francis W. Parker HS (CL): The undersized shortstop is the best defender overall in the class with a headiness for the game not seen often from a prep player. He's not going to offer much power, but he can hit, run, and will be a premium defender for years at shortstop.

27. Chicago Cubs- Nate Pearson, Pitcher, UCF: Pearson is A mountain of a right-hander flamethrower. With a fastball that has touched 101-102, Pearson pitches at 93-98 mph and will show an above average curveball along with delivery components to start. 

28. Toronto Blue Jays- Logan Warmorth, Shortstop, North Carolina: The shortstop from UNC has really popped this spring due to increased power in his game. It almost makes too much sense to tie the two parties together at this point considering the Jays are said to be a team that is hoping a quality college bat will make it to one of their their two picks.

29. Texas Rangers- Brendon Little, Pitcher, State College of Florida-Manatee (JC): Little is the second of the two-headed Florida JuCo pitcher monster with Nate Pearson; though more concerns about a future bullpen move have pushed him back a bit from his JC counterpart. Little works with a plus fastball and curveball from the left side, and could pitch in the majors quickly if moved to the 'pen immediately.

30. Chicago Cubs- Brent Rooker, Outfielder, Mississippi State: The Cubs have two first-rounders, so I would bet they stay close to their bread-and-butter of how they built their championship team by taking another college player who is a pure hitter. Rooker fits that as he's hit .404 this year with 21 bombs, 76 RBI, and almost an equal number of walks to strikeouts. He could easily go higher.

Supplemental First Round
31. Tampa Bay Rays- Clarke Schmidt, Pitcher, South Carolina: Schmidt had been cruising through the first half of the season and rising up draft boards with eye popping stuff when he found out he would need Tommy John surgery. Schmidt brings a lot to the table including a plus fastball and off speed stuff that was greatly improved from years past before going down with the injury.

32. Cincinnati Reds- Heliot Ramos, Outfielder, Leadership Christian Academy (PR): Ramos is an outfielder from Puerto Rico with a lot of tools. There are lots of plus grades on Ramos' scouting report; though the rawness is pretty severe and makes him a boom-or-bust type of selection.

33. Oakland Athletics- Corbin Martin, Pitcher, Texas A&M: The draft gets awful light on college bats at this point; so the Brewers go for a college arm here in Corbin Martin of Texas A&M, who has really flourished since joining the Aggie rotation at the start of conference play.

34. Milwaukee Brewers- Matt Sauer, Pitcher, Righetti HS (CA): Sauer is a big kid with a big arm. He has a lot of projection remaining which makes for an exciting profile. Sauer works with a four-pitch mix, highlighted by a good fastball/slider combo. The slider is an out pitch and has a lot of late life while the fastball sits in the low 90s with a lot of room for more as he fills out and gains more experience. He also owns a changeup and a curveball but they are works in progress at this point.

35. Minnesota Twins- Jeter Downs, Shortstop, Pace HS (FL): Downs has had a fantastic spring, pushing him up boards by showing more power than he'd shown on the circuit along with the tools to stay at shortstop.

36. Miami Marlins- Drew Waters, Outfielder, Etowah HS (GA): Waters can hit from both sides with the tools to stay in center field long term. I don't see Waters dropping beyond here.

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