Tuesday, June 20, 2017

2017 NBA Mock Draft: Fourth Edition

Here is the fourth edition of my 2017 NBA Mock Draft.

1. Philadelphia 76ers (via Boston Celtics)- Markelle Fultz, Point Guard, Washington: It’s time to start chasing some results in Philly. By adding Fultz, the Sixers have a core built for serious contention in the future. Washington’s absence from the NCAA tournament will raise some concerns, but not enough for the 76ers to pass on his upside. With Fultz and Ben Simmons both set to start, the race for the 2018 NBA Rookie of the Year award is already interesting.

2. Los Angeles Lakers- Lonzo Ball, Point Guard, UCLA: Did anyone notice Lakers president Magic Johnson didn't look too upset about not getting the No. 1 pick? That's because, I think, he now knows the pressure is off. He doesn't have to pick between Ball and Fultz. Now he can just take Ball once Fultz is off the board. And the Lakers are suddenly interesting again, if nothing else.

3. Boston Celtics (via Philadelphia 76ers)- Josh Jackson, Small Forward, Kansas: This pick is more than likely getting traded, but if the Celtics keep it, Jackson sounds like the man the Celtics like most. Big and versatile wing players are always in high demand. With Fultz and Ball off the board, Jackson may also be the best player available.

4. Phoenix Suns- Jayson Tatum, Small Forward, Duke: This may be the best-case scenario pick for Phoenix: Tatum is a complete player who brings some defensive ability to the perimeter that current Suns wings TJ Warren and Devin Booksr lack. He could easily be a top overall pick if this draft weren’t so loaded. Great fit.

5. Sacramento Kings (via Philadelphia 76ers)- De'Aaron Fox, Point Guard, Kentucky: The Kings are desperately in need of a young point guard with a high ceiling, and Fox is exactly that. At 6-4, he has nice size for the position and is super-fast with the ball. He was sensational in Kentucky's Sweet 16 win over UCLA while finishing with 39 points. Fox and Buddy Hield would be a nice back court.

6. Orlando Magic- Dennis Smith Jr, Point Guard, North Carolina State: The Magic haven't had a coherent identity in several years, so I'm worried about sending Smith here. If you asked, "What's the NBA version of NC State?" I'm pretty sure the answer is Orlando. Likewise, there are choices to make elsewhere on the roster that'll go a long way toward determining exactly what the Magic want from this draft. Elfrid Payton probably isn't the answer, though, and while the team transitions to new management under John Hammond and Jeff Weltman, it would make sense to grab the player with the best chance at stardom. At 6, that's Smith.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves- Jonathan Issacs, Small Forward, Florida State: The Timberwolves could take Isaac, play him with Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, and now we're talking about something with big potential. Minnesota would then have a core of Isaac, Towns, Wiggins, Zach LaVine and Ricky Rubio. Those are some nice pieces that could soon have the Timberwolves advancing in the Western Conference Playoffs.

8. New York Knicks- Frank Ntilikina, Point Guard, France: French Frank is the biggest wild card in the top 10. He played limited minutes for his team in France and scored a meager 5 points per game. It'll likely take a few years before he's ready to produce consistently in the NBA. On the other hand, he's 6’5” with long arms and quick feet, and at the very least he projects as a terrific perimeter defender. It's worth it for the Knicks to gamble on a project player here.

9. Dallas Mavericks- Malik Monk, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, Kentucky: Monk might give Dallas the most value and flexibility of any remaining prospect. The Mavericks would incorporate Kentucky’s marksman beautifully into their spread sets and weak-side pick-and-roll options. He’d flourish in Rick Carlisle’s system and empower the likes of Harrison Barnes and Seth Curry.

10. Sacramento Kings (via New Orleans Pelicans)- Lauri Markkanen, Power Forward, Arizona: With a potential franchise point guard already on the way, the Kings can address their frontcourt with pick No. 10. Markkanen is the logical choice as the first true post player to come off the board, giving Sacramento two players who complement each other nicely. While the Arizona freshman has clear defensive deficiencies, his impressive shooting numbers—42.3 percent from 3-point range last year—are tough to pass on. If Markkanen can learn to be a passable defender at the next level, he could be an impact player for years to come.

11. Charlotte Hornets- Donovan Mitchell, Shooting Guard, Louisville: This is probably a little high for the Louisville guard, but the Hornets could use a dynamic scorer to take some of the burden. At the back end of the lottery, teams can't be worried about reaching; they just need to take the player they think works best for them.

12. Detroit Pistons- Zach Collins, Center, Gonzaga: The reason Zach Collins continues to rise up the boards is potential. He only played one year at Gonzaga, which is a small sample size, but his 65 percent shooting from the field, including 47 percent from deep, gives you a glimpse at his potential. Collins is the prototypical “new NBA big man” and he fits the mold almost to a T, as he runs the floor incredibly well for his size, creates spacing. He will need to add strength and play more basketball, but the potential is there.

13. Denver Nuggets- Justin Jackson, Small Forward, North Carolina: It’s hard to hate on Jackson too much after what he did in his junior year at UNC. He finally blossomed as a three-point shooter (105 makes at 37 percent) and shut down Malik Monk on defense in the Elite Eight. He’s also by far the oldest potential lottery pick this year and isn’t that athletic or that great of a shooter. I like him more if he can defend shooting guards rather than small forwards.

14. Miami Heat- Luke Kennard, Shooting Guard, Duke: Next to Markkanen and Monk, Luke Kennard is one of the three best shooters in the draft. Miami is a team that could use the help stretching the floor on offense. Likewise, the Heat have pieces on the perimeter (Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow) and inside (Hassan Whiteside) to help hide Kennard's weaknesses on defense. Kennard could be a very solid role player for a good team, and depending on what happens later this summer, the Heat may be closer to that category than we realize. 

15. Portland Trail Blazers- Jarrett Allen, Center, Texas: Allen spent most of the year overshadowed by bigger freshmen stars on better teams, but Allen quietly got much better as the year unfolded at Texas. He's still raw, and he may be a year or two from playing meaningful minutes, but he will get drafted top 20 because of Myles Turner comparisons alone.

16. Chicago Bulls- OJ Anubody, Small Forward, Indiana: Anunoby is a freak athlete who will likely spend the better part of the next decade harassing people on defense. He could've been a first round pick last year, too. He hurt his knee at Indiana this year so his stock is a little bit mysterious, and his offense is still a question mark. 

17. Milwaukee Bucks- Harry Giles, Power Forward, Duke: Giles is another player coming off an injury who could turn into a steal with the right health and the right team. Milwaukee needs a point guard, but the answer won't be available at 17, and they probably won't find much value on the wing, either. That leaves any number of big men to choose from, and Milwaukee has a history of gambling on draft night. Yes, GM John Hammond isn't there anymore, and GM Jon Horst has been on the job for less than a week, but let's say they keep tradition alive and swing big.

18. Indiana Pacers- John Collins, Power Forward, Wake Forest: Collins is high-ceiling frontcourt player who fills somewhat of a need. Collins was one of the most efficient scorers in college basketball last season; if he can develop more range on his shot, he'll be a steal at this point in the draft. His development under head coach Danny Manning from his freshman to his sophomore season was impressive.

19. Atlanta Hawks- Justin Patton, Center, Creighton: There's been plenty of attention paid to this as a point guard-heavy draft. But it's also one of the deepest drafts for talented young big men that we've seen in a long time. Although he needs to put on some muscle so he can hang with NBA bigs, Patton is a superb athlete for a 7-footer, and showed impressive offensive versatility at Creighton as well. He may take some time to fill his potential, but the potential is certainly there.

20. Portland Trail Blazers (via Memphis Grizzlies)- Ike Anigbogu, Center, UCLA: The Blazers could use of a couple of their first rounders to take players who are years away and need developing. Anigbogu is perhaps the most unproven prospect that has first round potential. His stock’s been on the rise for a few weeks now, and I get a feeling some time will jump on him earlier then he should be taken. He only played 13 MPG as he battled injuries at UCLA, but he’s 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, and his potential is enticing. Anigbogu would have to develop behind Jusuf Nurkic and whatever bigs the Blazers decide to move forward with from that jumbled mess of players.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder- Terrance Ferguson, Shooting Guard, Australia: Ferguson, an Oklahoma native, was inconsistent while playing in Australia this season. But that shouldn't affect his standing with NBA scouts too much. He only shot 31.3 percent from 3-point range in 30 games. Not good. But that's not an accurate reflection of how well the former Arizona signee can actually shoot from beyond the arc.

22. Brooklyn Nets (via Washington Wizards)- TJ Leaf, Power Forward, UCLA: Leaf averaged 16.3 points and 8.2 rebounds while shooting 46.6 percent from 3-point range this season. He was overshadowed by his teammates at UCLA but still a statistical monster. He's a perfect stretch-4 for the modern-day NBA.

23. Toronto Raptors- Anzejs Pasecniks, Center, Latvia: The Raptors have a ton of questions to answer this summer—beginning with Lowry and Serge Ibaka in free agency, and continuing with Jonas Valanciunas's future. As things get crowded and expensive, a potential draft-and-stash option may be more attractive in this spot. Pasecniks is mobile with good touch on his jumper and he'd be a decent investment in the future, particularly if Valanciunas isn't sticking around long-term.

24. Utah Jazz- Semi Ojeleye, Small Forward, SMU: Ojeleye started his college career at Duke, where he was just a bit player. But the 6-7 forward was tremendous at SMU this season. He averaged 19.0 points and 6.9 rebounds while leading the Mustangs to American Athletic Conference regular-season and tournament titles.

25. Orlando Magic (via Toronto Raptors via Los Angeles Clippers)- DJ Wilson, Power Forward, Michigan: Michigan’s standout junior has a multidimensional, multipositional future in the NBA. If he continues the improvement we saw in Ann Arbor, the Magic will be able to plug him in to a variety of lineups. Right now, he doesn’t have the base strength to win low-block battles against 5s. However, his 7-3 wingspan and 9-1.5 standing reach will enable him to grow into a combo-big who alters shots around the rim. Wilson also has the offensive skills and agility to make an inside-out impact. He can rise way above the cup on drives and pick-and-rolls, and he has a promising outside jumper. Wilson improved his 3-point percentage to 37 percent and his free-throw percentage to 83 percent in 2016-17.

26. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cleveland Cavaliers)- Isaiah Hartenstein, Power Forward, Lithuania: Hartenstein is the best draft-and-stash candidate available in the late first round. He played for Lithuanian league champion Zalgiris Kaunas this past season, so he had a small role on an experienced roster. Even so, he flashed substantial two-way potential during his 11 minutes per game. Portland will hope the 7-footer continues to develop his aggressive interior defense and perimeter scoring. Hartenstein has the physicality and ballhandling skills to produce in the paint and also play away from the basket.

27. Brooklyn Nets (via Boston Celtics)- Tyler Lydon, Small Forward, Syracuse: Lydon shot 40.0 percent from 3-point range in two seasons at Syracuse and averaged 13.2 points and 8.6 rebounds as a sophomore. He'll be a stretch-4 in the NBA and should be capable of cracking a rotation as a rookie thanks to that reliable jumper.

28. Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets)- Jawun Evans, Point Guard, Oklahoma State: Evans is undersized at 5'11, but he's quick and creative, and he was a nightmare in the pick-and-roll at Oklahoma State. Those skills translate in the NBA. At worst, he'd be a fun spark off the bench. At best, his shooting improves—37% from three last year—and catches up with his ability to create off the dribble, and he becomes a real steal late in the first.

29. San Antonio Spurs- Jordan Bell, Power Forward, Oregon: Bell is one of the best defensive prospects in the draft, and probably the best pick-and-roll defender of any big man on the board. What he lacks in size at forward (6'8"), he makes up for with wingspan (7'0") and excellent foot speed. The Spurs' cap sheet could be getting tight if they try to add Chris Paul or George Hill this summer, and they'll likely lose Dwayne Dedmon regardless. Adding an extra big man who can actually contribute will be crucial, and Bell might be the safest bet available from 20-40. 

30. Utah Jazz (via Golden State Warriors)- Kyle Kuzma, Small Forward, Utah: Although the most skilled forwards like Collins, Leaf and Lydon are off the board, the Jazz still have a couple of options. Polished players like Ivan Rabb or Kule Kuzma will likely be available at No. 30. Give Kuzma the edge because he has more perimeter potential. At 6-9.5 in shoes with a 7-0.25 wingspan, Kuzma has the size of a power forward with a lot of wing-like skills. He’s comfortable putting the ball on the deck, shooting from 3-range and connecting with open teammates. And when he gets the rock near the hoop, he has great hands and footwork to finish.

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