Sunday, June 4, 2017

2017 MLB Mock Draft: First Edition

Here is my first edition of my 2017 MLB Mock draft.

1. Minnesota Twins- Kyle Wright, Pitcher, Vanderbilt: Wright’s draft stock plummeted through the first month and a half of the season but has flown up recently after he has put together a string of impressive performances. There have still been some inconsistencies but Wright is a good high-floor prospect with a higher ceiling as a pitcher than Brendan McCay.

2. Cincinnati Reds- Brendan McKay, Pitcher/First Baseman, Louisville: On the mound McKay’s velocity has dipped a bit over the last month but he has also unveiled a cutter that has a ton of potential so teams may be able to look past the velocity issue. As a hitter, McKay has been on fire all season and has sparked a healthy debate about his eventual role in pro ball. Either way, McKay is a pretty sure bet to get to the big leagues quickly.

3. San Diego Padres- Hunter Greene, Pitcher, Notre Dame HS (CA): The Padres are heavily linked to Hunter Greene and all the research about their previous draft strategy is pretty much moot at this point. This would be the perfect situation for both parties so if Greene slips this far they are taking him.

4. Tampa Bay Rays- Royce Lewis, Shortstop/Outfielder, JSerra Catholic HS (CA): Lewis does everything well, his best tool being his speed. He is a good hitter with a feel for the barrel and has solid power upside. Defensively he is a good athlete with great range but scouts feel his arm may not be strong enough to stay at short. I think he will be just fine and I’m willing to bet he’ll stay on the infield in the long run, but even if he doesn’t he would be an excellent center fielder in pro ball.

5. Atlanta Braves- MacKenzie Gore, Pitcher, Whiteville HS (NC): Gore has shot up the boards this season and is now widely regarded as the best high school left hander available. Some scouts have even put him ahead of Hunter Greene as a prospect. Gore’s fastball sits in the mid-90’s and he has a nasty curveball that grades as a plus pitch. He’s an athletic kid and would be a perfect fit for thBraves should he make it to them.

6. Oakland Athletics- JB Bukauskas, Pitcher, North Carolina: The Athletics are still considering both prep and college players; with Bukauskas, Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, Gore, and Austin Beck all getting buzz with the A's. Bukauskas has the best pure stuff in the college class; with a mid-90's fastball and plus-plus slider; though he's undersized and his delivery/arm action raise some concerns.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks- Pavin Smith, First Baseman, Virginia: This will likely be Smith or Adam Haseley, his UVA teammate. Arizona loves its college hitters and there is none better than Smith. Smith has an absurd 4.1% K rate this season and has walked 4 times more often than he’s struck out! Not only is he a phenomenal hitter but he has shown improved power and has played well defensively this year.

8. Philadelphia Phillies- Jordan Adell, Outfielder, Ballard HS (KY): Adell has excellent speed on the base paths and in the outfield with a plus arm and great instincts. He has big time raw power and the ability to hit the ball hard to all fields. The concern with Adell is whether or not he can cut down the strikeouts; many think he can.

9. Milwaukee Brewers- Austin Beck, Outfielder, North Davidson HS (NC): The Brewers have taken a prep player with their first pick in 4 of the last 5 drafts with the exception coming last year when they took Corey Ray. Beck is a great hitter with plus speed and the potential for plus power but has fallen a bit lately on the national stage as other prepsters have passed him up.

10. Los Angeles Angels- Alex Faedo, Pitcher, Florida: Faedo has been steadily good this spring; though the rumored velocity jump from the fall never really did show up. He pitches at 90-94 mph with a plus slider and average changeup; with a certain amount of safety given his track record and present stuff. The Angels have been tied to prep bats, especially Adell, but with him gone, Faedo is the pick right now.

11. Chicago White Sox- Jeren Kendall, Outfielder, Vanderbilt: If Kendall didn't swing and miss as much as he does, we'd likely be calling him a slam-dunk 1:1 selection--the other tools are just that good. He's got plus raw power from the left side with plus-plus speed, a plus arm, and a chance to be plus in center field. The only question is just how much the whiffs will impact his hit tool. 

12. Pittsburgh Pirates- Evan White, First Baseman/Outfielder, Kentucky: After taking Wake Forest slugger Will Craig with the No. 22 overall pick last year, the Pirates once again appear to be targeting college bats. There's plenty of room for him to add strength to his lean 6'3", 177-pound frame and his hit tool should play regardless of how much power he develops.

13. Miami Marlins- Shane Baz, Pitcher, Concordia Lutheran HS (TX): The Marlins have drafted a prep player with their top pick in the last 2 drafts and I see another one in their future. Last year it was the electric lefty, Braxton Garrett, this year I think it will be the electric righty, Shane Baz. Baz is one of the risers in this year’s draft, showcasing a 4-pitch repertoire that features a power fastball and both a curveball and slider that produce swings and misses. Scouts rave about his stuff but question his command.

14. Kansas City Royals- Trevor Rogers, Pitcher, Carlsbad HS (TX): Rogers has been rumored as high as No. 3 overall to the Padres, though that smoke died down quickly. He's also been tied to a bunch of other places, but it's well-known in the industry that the Royals are very heavy on the prep lefty from New Mexico, who has drawn comparisons to a young Andrew Miller.

15. Houston Astros- DL Hall, Pitcher, Valdosta HS (GA): The Astros have taken a prep arm in two of the last three drafts. Rumor has it that they are looking for a college bat but I’m not so sure. It would be hard to resist grabbing Hall here. Hall has quite a bit of projection left and already touches 95 with his fastball so there is probably more velocity in there. He is best known for his good curveball which should develop into a plus pitch.

16. New York Yankees- David Peterson, Pitcher, Oregon: "Dominant" doesn't even begin to describe how David Peterson has been for Oregon this spring; as the huge lefthander has had no trouble whatsoever in the PAC-12. He works 90-94 mph on most nights with a potentially plus slider and plus command, and looks to be a pretty safe mid-rotation piece at this point. 

17. Seattle Mariners- Keston Hiura, Second Baseman/Outfielder, UC Irvine: The Mariners like spending their first pick on high-upside college hitters and the best one on the board could be Hiura. The knock on Hiura has been his injury history and the fact that when he is on the field, teams aren’t sure where he fits defensively. One thing is certain though, Hiura can hit. In a class weak on college hitters, Hiura may go as high as 8 or 9 but the defensive questions seem to be enough to drop him.

18. Detroit Tigers- Nicholas Pratto, First Baseman, Huntington Beach HS (CA): The Tigers have been tied to their typical collection of hard-throwing righthanded arms, but we've also heard them linked with prep outfielder Drew Waters, Oregon's David Peterson, and Pratto. Considered by some to be the best prep bat in the class, Pratto would provide a significant boost to the Detroit farm system, which is really lacking in pure hitters at the moment.

19. San Francisco Giants- Logan Warmorth, Shortstop, North Carolina: The Giants haven't been necessarily specifically tied to Warmoth, the shortstop from UNC who has really popped this spring due to increased power in his game, but it almost makes too much sense to tie the two parties together at this point. The Giants love prep catcher Luis Campusano, but this may be a touch high for him. 

20. New York Mets- Nate Pearson, Pitcher, UCF: A mountain of a righthander flamethrower, Pearson has been the No. 1 JC prospect on PG's list dating back to last fall. With a fastball that has touched 101-102 (depending on the gun you saw at his recent bullpen); Pearson pitches at 93-98 mph and will show an above average curveball along with delivery components to start. 

21. Baltimore Orioles- Griffin Canning, Pitcher, UCLA: UCLA ace Griffin Canning is one of the toughest players to peg in this year's draft. As a high-floor college arm with advanced pitchability and a four-pitch repertoire headlined by one of the better changeups in the class, he has a very similar profile to former Florida right-hander Logan Shore. Targeting a fast-moving college player would seem to make perfect sense for the Baltimore Orioles, given the current makeup of their farm system. This might actually be their best-case scenario.

22. Toronto Blue Jays- Tanner Houck, Pitcher, Missouri: Houck has the big fastball and the durable frame to develop into an impact starter. There are also questions about his secondary stuff and his mechanics, though, leaving the Missouri ace as an intriguing upside play here toward the back of the first round.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers- Bubba Thompson, Outfielder, McGill-Toolen Catholic HS (CA): The Dodgers have been continually linked with the dual-sport superstar who is committed to Alabama to play strictly baseball. Thompson offers the type of high-impact athletic upside that few others in this class can, with the chops to be plus in the outfield long term and seriously advanced hitting tools.

24. Boston Red Sox- Sam Carlson, Pitcher, Burnsville HS (TN): Carlson had a decent showing over the Summer showing three good pitches, but most scouts felt he needed quite a bit of work before being ready to pitch at the professional level. Then this Spring happened and Carlson has flown up the boards. His fastball has added velocity, his slider has been sharper, he’s been locating his pitches well and his changeup is advanced for a prep pitcher.

25. Washington Nationals- Clarke Schmidt, Pitcher, South Carolina: Schmidt had been cruising through the first half of the season and rising up draft boards with eye popping stuff when he found out he would need Tommy John surgery. Schmidt brings a lot to the table including a plus fastball and off speed stuff that was greatly improved from years past before going down with the injury.

26. Texas Rangers- Seth Romero, Pitcher, Houston: The Rangers have selected a pitcher with their first pick in each of the last 4 drafts. They could make it 5 straight with Romero, formerly from the University of Houston but now without a team to pitch for. The Rangers own two first round picks and Romero is a Texas native. Anytime the words “dismissed from the University” appear next to a name, it’s a major problem. He’s a top-10 talent but his off the field concerns are gravely concerning.

27. Chicago Cubs- Nick Allen, Shortstop, Francis W. Parker HS (CL): The undersized shortstop is the best defender overall in the class with a headiness for the game not seen often from a prep player. He's not going to offer much power, but he can hit, run, and will be a premium defender for years at shortstop.

28. Toronto Blue Jays- Alex Lange, Pitcher, LSU:  In the two years since, Lange has refined his overall command and improved his changeup to the point that it's a passable third pitching alongside his mid-90s fastball and a hammer curve that ranks as one of the better breaking pitches in the class. That being said, he's prone to overthrowing at times and has some effort to his delivery, so there's a chance that strong two-pitch mix is utilized out of the bullpen before all is said and done.

29. Texas Rangers- Matt Sauer, Pitcher, Righetti HS (CA): Sauer is a big kid with a big arm. He has a lot of projection remaining which makes for an exciting profile. Sauer works with a four-pitch mix, highlighted by a good fastball/slider combo. The slider is an out pitch and has a lot of late life while the fastball sits in the low 90s with a lot of room for more as he fills out and gains more experience. He also owns a changeup and a curveball but they are works in progress at this point.

30. Chicago Cubs- Brian Miller, Outfielder, North Carolina: Miller is yet another polished college hitter for the Cubs to snatch up. He has the defensive chops and range to stay in center and has a good hit tool. Scouts are a little split over his power potential which drives him down a bit but he is the kind of guy the Cubs love to draft.

Supplemental First Round
31. Tampa Bay Rays- Brendon Little, Pitcher, State College of Florida-Manatee (JC): Little is the second of the two-headed Florida JuCo pitcher monster with Nate Pearson; though more concerns about a future bullpen move have pushed him back a bit from his JC counterpart. Little works with a plus fastball and curveball from the left side, and could pitch in the majors quickly if moved to the 'pen immediately.

32. Cincinnati Reds- Drew Waters, Outfielder, Etowah HS (GA): Cincinnati has been linked to Waters all spring long either here or at No. 38, and while it's well within reason that the switch-hitting center fielder is gone before now, the Reds would likely be ecstatic to get him here. Waters can hit from both sides with the tools to stay in center field long term. Plus, the Reds went with a toolsy prep OF from Georgia as their second pick last year in Taylor Trammell, so why not do it again with Waters?

33. Oakland Athletics- Heliot Ramos, Outfielder, Leadership Christian Academy (PR): Ramos is an outfielder from Puerto Rico with a lot of tools. There are lots of plus grades on Ramos' scouting report; though the rawness is pretty severe and makes him a boom-or-bust type of selection.

34. Milwaukee Brewers- Corbin Martin, Pitcher, Texas A&M: The draft gets awful light on college bats at this point; so the Brewers go for a college arm here in Corbin Martin of Texas A&M, who has really flourished since joining the Aggie rotation at the start of conference play.

 35. Minnesota Twins- Jake Burger, First Baseman/Third Baseman, Missouri State: Burger has been the preeminent collegiate power bat over the last two years (though Iowa's Jake Adams has him beat this season); smashing 20+ HR's each of the last two seasons. He seems likely to slide over to first base, but offers plus plus raw power along with good feel to hit. 

36. Miami Marlins- Jeter Downs, Shortstop, Pace HS (FL): Downs has had a fantastic spring, pushing him up boards by showing more power than he'd shown on the circuit along with the tools to stay at shortstop.

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