Saturday, October 3, 2015

2015-16 NHL Predictions

Here are my predictions for the 2015-16 NHL season.
*= Wild Card team.

- Eastern Conference

Metropolitan Division
1. New York Rangers- The defending Presidents Trophy winners will come in with chips on their shoulders after losing in game seven at home in the Eastern Conference Finals against the reigning Stanley Cup runner ups in the Tampa Bay Lightning. Henrik Lundqvist should be in the Vezina Trophy hunt yet again and hasn't shown much signs of age and decline. Rick Nash had a terrific regular season a year ago, Chris Kreider should improve like he does every year, and more youngsters like JT Miller and Jesper Fast should take the next step as well. Derek Stepan signed a well deserved mega contract extension in the offseason as well. The defense is among the best in the NHL with captain Ryan McDonagh leading the way with Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, and power play specialists Keith Yandle and Dan Boyle. Expect the Rangers to be right up there among the leagues elite.

2. Washington Capitals- Washington should be one of the more improved teams going into this season led by Hart Trophy candidate Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin should have a better supporting cast with newly acquired forward TJ Oshie coming over in a trade. Nicklas Backstrom is coming off arthroscopic hip surgery and may miss the start of the season due to recovery, but he should help when he returns. Free agent pickup Justin Williams should have an impact as well. Young forward Andre Burakovsky is expected to take the next step this season. The defense is pretty good, despite the departure of Mike Green, with Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen leading the way. Brayden Holtby is coming off a breakout year in which he went toe-to-toe with Henrik Lundqvist in their second round exit last year (in which they were up 3 games to 1 in the series), so expect Holtby to build off last season. Expectations are pretty high for this team after what they did last season and what they did in the offseason and they should be among the top teams in the east this season.

3. New York Islanders- Expectations are high for a team that is about to kick off a new era by moving to Brooklyn. Captain John Tavares is one of the leagues best players and will be in the Hart Trophy conversation. Kyle Okposo's name has been in trade rumors of late, but it shouldn't be that bad of a distraction. This team does have a lot of other scoring options such as Brock Nelson, Frans Nielsen, and breakout candidate Anders Lee. The defense is solid with Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk leading the way. Jaroslav Halak will have his ups and downs in net, but he has a pretty darn good supporting cast around him. Expect the Isles to be in the postseason for the third time in four seasons.

4. *Pittsburgh Penguins- Pittsburgh is one of those teams where it all clicks, something special can happen and if it doesn't, it can all implode and blow up in their faces. New comer Phil Kessel joins Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to form what could be a new big three. Forwards like Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz, and Patric Hornqvist form a good supporting cast for the Pens. The defense is finally getting Kris Letang back from injury and should help the defense which isn't great as it used to be with Rob Scuderi and Olli Maatta. Marc-Andre Fleury has been better than given credit for in goal, especially last season. I think Pittsburgh is being overrated by some experts because of the improvements of other contenders, but this is still a playoff caliber team.

5. *Columbus Blue Jackets- Columbus had a disappointing season last year due to bad injury luck, but they finished strong despite missing the playoffs. The Jackets made one of the best and boldest moves of the offseason by trading for now former Blackhawk Brandon Saad. He will join a pretty darn good core with Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Johansen leading the way. The defense isn't great but it should be OK with Jack Johnson leading the way. Sergei Bobrovsky should be in the Vezina Trophy conversation all year long as well. Expect Columbus to sneak back into the postseason for the second time in three years.

6. Philadelphia Flyers- Philadelphia had a disappointing season a year ago and because of that, Craig Berube was fired and they replaced him with former University of North Dakota coach Dave Hakstol. The core of this team remains pretty much intact with captain Claude Giroux leading the way with Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Vincent Lecavlier, Brayden Schenn, and Sean Couturier, just to name a few forwards in the supporting cast. The defense is the teams weakness, but Luke Schenn and Michael Del Zotto are solid players that will be relied on. Steve Mason is solid in net, but his defense doesn't help him all that much and that's well documented. Expect the Flyers to be in the hunt for a Wild Card for most of the season.

7. Carolina Hurricanes- Carolina is a candidate to be this years version of the Calgary Flames from last year (team that exceeds expectations and either makes the playoffs or barely misses the playoffs). It could be the case but I really don't see it. Captain Eric Staal's name has been in trade talks since he's in a contract year. Jordan Staal is still around as well and the Staal's don't have that great of a supporting cast with guys like Jeff Skinner, Elias Lindholm, and Riley Nash. The defense shouldn't be that bad though with Justin Faulk, Ryan Murphy, and rookie Noah Hanifin. Cam Ward is in a contract year as well and his name will continue to be in trade talks. Like I said earlier, this team can surprise, but there just is a lot of questions surrounding the team.

8. New Jersey Devils- This team really went through a lot of turnover in the offseason as Lou Lamoriello resigned as GM and president and bolted for Toronto. Ray Shero is the new GM in town and John Hynes is the new head coach. The offense isn't great and they will rely on guys like Adam Henrique, newcomer Kyle Palmieri, Travis Zajac, and Patrik Elias, who will miss the start of the season with a knee injury. The defense is solid though with Adam Larsson and Andy Greene leading the way. Cory Schneider is one of the more underrated goalies in the game, but he doesn't get the goal support from his teammates. The Devils could be a surprise team this year if Schneider has another great season and if some of the forwards contribute more than expected, but I don't see it and it wouldn't be surprising to see some sort of a fire sale.

Atlantic Division
1. Tampa Bay Lightning- Tampa Bay right now is the team to beat in the Eastern Conference after being the conference representative in the Stanley Cup Final in June and they returned everyone from last years team. Steven Stamkos is in a contract year (unless they extend him before or during the season) and I expect the Bolts to sign him to a mega-extension. The triplets line of Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, and Ondrej Palat is one of the best lines in the league. The supporting cast along with Stamkos and the Triplets consists of Alex Killorn, Valtteri Fippula, and Ryan Callahan. The defense is outstanding with Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman leading the way. Ben Bishop and Andres Vasilevskiy are a good goaltending duo behind the net. Expect Tampa to win this division and they have a real chance at winning it all this season as well.

2. Detroit Red Wings- All the talk in Detroit is that the Wings will miss Mike Babcock and that will show during the season. Babcock is a terrific coach, but new coach Jeff Blashill worked under Babcock and he should do just fine. He has a good group of forwards such as captain Henrik Zetterberg, Paval Datsyuk, free agent singing Brad Richards, and Gustav Nyquist leading the way, even though three of those four guys are aging. The defense should be better with the free agent pickup of Mike Green, who will be joining Danny DeKeyser and Brendan Smith on the blue line. Petr Mrazek will be starting behind the net as Jimmy Howard's name has been in trade talks a lot of late. Expect Detroit to make the playoffs yet again.

3. Montreal Canadiens- Montreal should be in the mix yet again after making the postseason the last three seasons. Reigning Hart Trophy winner Carey Price should be in the mix for both the Hart and Vezina Trophies yet again after a historically great season. Their offense has been some bit of a weakness the last few years, though. Max Pacioretty leads the way on offense and newcomers Alex Semin and Zach Kassian will join Pacioretty and Kassian is facing a make-or-break year. The defense is really good with PK Subban leading the way. Expect the Habs to be in the postseason yet again.

4. Buffalo Sabres- I think this is the surprise team of the NHL. Out of town is Ted Nolan and in town is Dan Bylsma, who is an outstanding coach and probably shouldn't have been fired from Pittsburgh. They had a pretty big overhaul over the offseason with a lot of new faces. Trade acquisition Ryan O'Reilly and rookie Jack Eichel headline the offseason moves and they join Brian Gionta and Evander Kane, who got traded to the Sabres last season after getting injured. Cody Franson headlines the defense, but there's not much else. Robyn Lehner was acquired in a trade with the Senators this offseason and he is a good option in net. Like I said, this is my surprise team pick that can replicate the Flames from last season, but I say they barely miss the postseason because I think the Metro Division has five playoff entry's.

5. Ottawa Senators- Ottawa made the playoffs last season thanks to a huge push after the All-Star break lead by Andrew "Hamburglar" Hammond, who got hot and carried them. Is he the real deal? That's a big question, but at least they have Craig Anderson, who is a solid goaltender as well. The offense is pretty good lead by Mark Stone, Kyle Turris, and the aging Bobby Ryan. The defense is great with reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson leading the way. I wouldn't rule out the Sens making the playoffs for the third time in four years, but I feel that the competition has gotten better and has passed by them.

6. Boston Bruins- My oh mighty has this team fallen. In 2011, they were Stanley Cup champions, in 2013, they were two wins away from their second cup in two years, and in 2014, they won the Presidents Trophy. Now, their a hot mess. Cap issues killed this team as they had to trade Dougie Hamilton and Milan Lucic in the offseason and there are a lot of new faces in Beantown. David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and newcomer Matt Beleskey lead the way on offense. On the defense you have aging captain Zdeno Chara, Torey Krug, and Adam McQuaid leading the way. Tuuka Rask is still one of the games best goalies, so he should be able to keep them in games. Claude Julien is back for another season, but he's on the hot seat since there's a new GM in town in Don Sweeney. They could surprise us and sneak in the postseason, but I feel that Lucic and Hamilton will be missed too much.

7. Florida Panthers- Florida is an intriguing team as we enter this hockey season. They can sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card team or they will regress after surprising some folks last season. Jonathan Huberdeau, Derek MacKenzie, and the aging Jaromir Jagr lead the way on offense. The defense is actually pretty good with captain Willie Mitchell and reigning Clader Award winner Aaron Ekblad. Roberto Luongo is aging, but he had a pretty good year last season. GM Dale Tallon and head coach Gerard Gallant are on the hot seat this season so their under pressure to win. Like Boston and Ottawa, I feel that the competition (especially in the Metro Division) has supplanted the mid-teir teams in the Atlantic Division.

8. Toronto Maple Leafs- Toronto probably made the most important coaching hire in Mike Babcock, and he'll probably be around in the long term and there's a new GM in town in Lou Lamoriello. Phil Kessel was traded away and now they have to rely on James van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri, and Joffery Lupul on offense. On defense, captain Dion Phaneuf, who's name won't go away in trade talks, Stephane Robidas, and Morgan Reilly are the focal points of the unit. The goaltending isn't terrible though, either with Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer. I'm not sure if they bottom out or actually compete, but I think the fire sale may continue this season as they try to rebuild.

- Western Conference

Central Division
1. Nashville Predators- This pick may surprise some, but I like the Preds to win this division after almost winning the division last season. Pekka Rinne is one of the best and underrated goalies of the league and expect great things from him this season. The offense is formidable with Filip Forsberg Colin Wilson, and James Neal leading the way. The defense is among the leagues elite with captain Shea Weber, Seth Jones, and Roman Jossi leading the way. Peter Laviolette is an amazing head coach and I believe he gets his team to a Central Division title.

2. St. Louis Blues- The Blues are always the team that dominates in the regular season, but disappoints in the playoffs. TJ Oshie was traded away, but the team still has a loaded offense with last years breakout star Vlad Tarasenko, Patrik Berglund, David Backes, Paul Stasny, Alex Steen, and Jaden Schwartz leading the way. The defense is great with Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk, and Jay Bouwmeester leading the way. The goaltending is shaky, though and which is probably the downfall of this team with Jake Allen and Brian Elliott. Ken Hitchkock is on the hot seat as he returns on a one year contract. This team is very talented and they could very well win this division.

3. Chicago Blackhawks- Chicago has gone through a lot of change and turmoil after winning their third championship in six seasons. Patrick Kane's well documented rape investigation isn't going away anytime soon and it will be a distraction. Along with Kane, the offense consists of Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, newcomer Artem Anisimov, and breakout candidate Teovo Teravinen. Marko Dano, who was a key piece in return for Brandon Saad as well as Anisimov, is starting the season in the minors so expect him to get called up at some point. The defense is still among the elite with Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook leading the way and Trevor Daley was acquired for Patrick Sharp, so he should play a big role. Corey Crawford is one of the more underrated goalies in the league so he should have a good year too. Joel Quinnville will have the team ready to go and focused on the game and not the off-ice distractions, so expect them to be in the mix all season.

4. *Dallas Stars- Dallas should be one of the more improved teams in the league after the offseason moves they made. Trade acquisition Patrick Sharp joins Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza, and Tyler Seguin to form a great offense. The defense is probably the weakness of the team, though free agent signing Johnny Oduya's presence should help that unit. The goaltending should be better after signing Anti Niemi in the offseason and Kari Lehthonen isn't bad, either. Lindy Ruff is a great coach and I expect improvement from this team as well as them back in the postseason after missing it last season.

5. *Minnesota Wild- Minnesota has been a pretty darn good team the last few years and expect that to continue. They caught fire the last few months of the regular season last season thanks to superb goaltending from Devan Dubnyk, who may see a drop off this season. The offense consists of Zach Parise, Jason Pominville, and Thomas Vanek, which is formidable. Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon lead the way on defense, which is also a good unit on this club. Mike Yeo is another hot seat candidate if this team disappoints. Expect the Wild to get in as a Wild Card for the third straight year.

6. Winnipeg Jets- Winnipeg shocked the world last season by sneaking in the postseason. It would not be a surprise to see this team in the postseason again, though. Offensively, the group consists of Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler, and Drew Stafford. Dustin Byfuglien's name has popped up in trade rumors and that could be a distraction. The defense consists of Byfuglien and Mark Stuart leading the way. The goaltending is the teams weakness, even though Ondrej Pavelec wasn't bad last season. I'm not saying last year was a fluke, but Paul Maurice's team may have been passed by their competition.

7. Colorado Avalanche- Patrick Roy's team is trying to make the postseason after missing out on it a year ago. The offense is pretty good with Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene, and the aging Jarome Iginla. The defense is not great though, but there are solid players such as Erik Johnson and newcomer Francois Beauchemin. Semyon Varlamov had a career year two seasons ago, but I don't think he's that good. This team may surprise folks, but I feel that the competition passed them.

Pacific Division
1. Anaheim Ducks- This team is just loaded and poised to make a run at the Cup. Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Ryan Kesler lead the way on offense. Carl Hagelin joins the team in an offseason trade with the New York Rangers and he'll make a big impact with his speed. The defense consists of trade acquisition Kevin Bieska and Cam Fowler, and that's a pretty good duo with good depth behind them. The goaltending could be the teams downfall, but Fredereck Anderson and John Gibson aren't really bad options behind the net. If this team doesn't get to the Final, it would be considered a massive disappointment and Bruce Boudreau may lose his job if he doesn't get the job done.

2. Calgary Flames- A lot of folks think this team is poised for a step back after surprising the world last season and making it to the second round of the playoffs. I think their poised to build on their success, not take a step back. The offense is pretty good with Johnny Gaudreau, Jiri Hudler, and Mikael Backlund leading the way. Rookie Sam Bennett should be in the hunt for the Calder Trophy as well. The defense is going to be great with newcomer Dougie Hamilton joining Mark Giordano on their top line. The goaltending isn't that great, but it's serviceable with Karri Ramo and Jonas Hiller. Expect the Flames to make the playoffs for the second straight season.

3. Los Angeles Kings- The Kings are poised to make the playoffs after missing it last season. Anze Kopitar is in a contract year and he should get signed to an extension at some point. The offense is pretty good with Kopitar, Marion Gaborik, and newcomer Milan Lucic leading the way. The defense suffered a loss with Slava Voynov going to play in Russia, but it's still pretty darn good with Drew Doughty, Alec Martinez, and free agent signing Christian Ehroff. Jonathan Quick is one of the games elite goaltenders and he should be in the Vezina Trophy mix. Darryl Sutter will make sure this team doesn't miss the playoffs for a second straight year or else Sutter may be out of a job.

4. San Jose Sharks- Out of town is Todd McLellan and the new bench boss is former New Jersey Devils head coach Pete DeBoer, who did a nice job with the Devils. The offense is formidable with Patrick Markeau, Joe Thornton, and Joe Pavelski leading the way. The defense isn't to shabby and it consists of newcomer Paul Martin, who will join Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Their goaltending may be their downfall as they acquired Martin Jones to replace Antti Niemi and Jones was a backup to Joanthan Quick in Los Angeles and he has a lot to prove this season. I do believe San Jose will be in the mix for the Wild Cards in the west, but they'll fall short.

5. Edmonton Oilers- Edmonton made a ton of noise this offseason. They hired Todd McLellan to replace former interim head coach Todd Nelson. Connor McDavid is supposed to be the greatest prospect since Sidney Crosby and he'll make an immediate impact. McDavid joins Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Nail Yakupov to form a fun, young, solid offensive core. The defense consists of captain Andrew Ference, newcomer Griffin Reinhart, and Justin Schultz, which isn't too shabby. Cam Talbot was acquired from the New York Rangers and he will start in net. I do think this team can make some noise, but I do think the defense needs to be better though and the competition is better than the Oilers, for now.

6. Vancouver Canucks- Vancouver surprised a lot of folks last season by finishing second in the division. I think their due for a step back. Their core is aging, especially on the offensive side with Henrik and Daniel Sedin, Alex Burrows, and Radim Vrbata. The defense will take a step back after the trade of Kevin Bieksa, but they do still have Alex Edler and Dan Hamhuis, but not much else on that end. Ryan Miller is a pretty good goalie, but he's coming off an injury. I really think this team is going to drop off after a surprising season a year ago.

7. Arizona Coyotes- Arizona is probably the worst team in the Western Conference at the moment. Their offense consists of Antoine Vermette, captain Shane Doan, Anthony Duclair, and rookie Dylan Strome. Their defense is mediocre at best with Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Michael Stone, and newcomer Nicklas Grossmann. Mike Smith had a disastrous season a year ago and he looks to rebound from it. This team is rebuilding at the moment and it wouldn't be surprising to see a coaching change if things get as ugly as projected.

- 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Quarterfinals
(A1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs (WC2) Columbus Blue Jackets: Tampa Bay is the more experienced
team here even though I think Sergei Bobrovsky can steal a game.
Prediction: Lightning in five games.

(M1) New York Rangers vs (WC1) Pittsburgh Penguins: This should be a good series as the Rangers potent defense shuts down Pittsburgh's new big three of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel.
Prediction: Rangers in six games.

(M2) Washington Capitals vs (M3) New York Islanders: This rematch of last seasons first round matchup should be a classic as two of the leagues best players face off in Alex Ovechkin and John Tavares. I think Brayden Holtby is the better goalie and that will be the difference here.
PredictionCapitals in seven games.

(A2) Detroit Red Wings vs (A3) Montreal Canadiens: Carey Price outplays Petr Mrazek as the Habs steal this series against thanks to Price and that defense led by PK Subban.
Prediction: Canadiens in six games.

(P1) Anaheim Ducks vs (WC2) Minnesota Wild: This should be a fun series between two potent offensive teams. A lot of goals abound, but I feel that Anaheim is the better team.
Prediction: Ducks in six games.

(C1) Nashville Predators vs (WC1) Dallas Stars: This should be a good series as well. Goaltending and defense is the difference here. Advantage Preds.
Prediction: Predators in six games.

(C2) St. Louis Blues vs (C3) Chicago Blackhawks: This is arguably the best rivalry in the Western Conference. The Hawks always show up in the playoffs and the Blues always underachieve this time a year. The Hawks take this one because Corey Crawford will outplay who ever is in net for the Blues whether it's Brian Elliott or Jake Allen.
Prediction: Blackhawks in six games.

(P2) Calgary Flames vs (P3) Los Angeles Kings: This should be a fun series. Jonathan Quick is the better goalie than whoever is in net for the Flames whether it's Karri Ramo or Jonas Hiller. Give me LA.
Prediction: Kings in six games.

Semi-Finals
(A1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs (A3) Montreal Canadiens: This would be a rematch of last years conference semi-finals. Carey Price can steal a few games, but the Bolts are the better team.
Prediction: Lightning in six games.

(M1) New York Rangers vs (M2) Washington Capitals: Another conference semi-finals rematch from a year ago. The Rangers typically have the Capitals number and I expect another classic here.
Prediction: Rangers in seven games.

(P1) Anaheim Ducks vs (P3) Los Angeles Kings: Here's a rematch from two years ago's conference semi-finals. The Ducks are the better club this time around.
Prediction: Ducks in six games.

(C1) Nashville Predators vs (C3) Chicago Blackhawks: This rematch is from the conference quarterfinals from last season. I just think the Hawks pull this one out because their so damn resilient.
Prediction: Blackhawks in six games.

Conference Finals
(A1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs (M1) New York Rangers: Here we got a rematch of last years Eastern  Conference Finals. You can make a case for either team here, but give me Tampa and their potent offense.
Prediction: Lightning in seven games.

(P1) Anaheim Ducks vs (C3) Chicago Blackhawks: Here we got a rematch of last years Western  Conference Finals. This time, I believe Anaheim is the better team here.
Prediction: Ducks in seven games.

Stanley Cup Final
(A1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs (P1) Anaheim Ducks: These are perhaps the best two teams in the league. Great offenses, solid defenses, and solid goaltending on each side. You can make a case on both ends, but I feel that the Bolts have the deeper team and that's the difference here as they'll win their first Stanley Cup in twelve years.
Prediction: Lightning in seven games.

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