Wednesday, March 20, 2019

2019 MLB Season Predictions

Here are my predictions for the 2019 MLB season. Will the Red Sox repeat as World Series champs? How will Bryce Harper and Manny Machado fare in their first seasons with their new teams? What teams will surprise or disappoint? See below to find out.

American League East
1. New York Yankees (100-62)
2. Boston Red Sox (97-65) (Wild Card #1)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72) (Wild Card #2)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)
5. Baltimore Orioles (55-107)

The Boston Red Sox may be your reigning World Champions, but the selection to win this division is the New York Yankees. A lot went wrong for the Yanks last season, but they still won 100 games. Aaron Judge is back and healthy, Giancarlo Stanton will be better in his second season in pinstripes, Gary Sanchez is poised for a huge bounce back season, and the rest of this offense will rake. Just wait until Didi Gregorius comes back from Tommy John Surgery. The rotation is improved with the addition of James Paxton and re-signing JA Happ to go with Luis Severino (who won't be back until May due to shoulder inflammation), Masahiro Tanaka, and CC Sabathia. The bullpen is the best in the game led by Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, and new addition Adam Ottavino. The Red Sox are a team that's still a contender, but is poised to take a step back this season. Their offense is still great led by reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Andrew Benintendi. Chris Sale is still their team ace to go with veterans David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, and Rick Porcello in that rotation. Their bullpen is not good after the pending departure of Craig Kimbrel. Their closer is slated to be Matt Barnes, which is not ideal. The Tampa Bay Rays are team that overachieved a year ago and got better during the offseason. Their offense will be better with a full season of Tammy Pham, a possible breakout of Willy Adames, and the additions of Mike Zunino and Yandy Diaz. Their rotation is better with the addition of Charlie Morton to go with the reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. They have a ton of good "opener" options with Ryne Stanek and Ryan Yarborough and they have some good relief options including Jose Alvardo. The Toronto Blue Jays are rebuilding and they have a future foundation that will be the left side of the infield of theirs by midseason with Vlad Gurriero Jr and Bo Bichette. They have some veterans on their team too with Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales. Their rotation has talent on top with Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez. Ken Giles is a closer who's hit or miss. The Baltimore Orioles are the worst team in the majors. Overpaid veterans Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis are still on this team and they have possible trade baits in Trey Mancini and Jonathan Villar. They have an average top three in their rotation with Dylan Bundy, Andrew Cashner, and Alex Cobb and it would not surprise me if those guys are trade bait too. Another trade bait on this squad is closer Mychal Givens.

American League Central
1. Cleveland Indians (92-70)
2. Minnesota Twins (79-83)
3. Chicago White Sox (72-90)
4. Detroit Tigers (64-98)
5. Kansas City Royals (58-102)

The team to beat in this division is the Cleveland Indians. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are the foundation pieces of this offense and they have a real breakout candidate in trade acquisition Jake Bauers. Their rotation is the best in the game featuring Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Corrasco, Mike Clevenger, and Shane Bieber. Their bullpen will miss Cody Allen and Andrew Miller although they still have closer Brad Hand and Adam Cimber. The Minnesota Twins are a team folks are expecting a big jump from. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are two guys that have been inconsistent throughout their careers. Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario are guys that have shown promise. Jose Berrios is a guy that is capable of being a rotation ace and they have some other average guys in Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, and Jake Odorizzi. Their bullpen is not very good and their closer is Trevor May. The Chicago White Sox are a team that wants to improve badly although they missed out on Manny Machado. Their offense will be improved with the additions of Yonder Alonso, Jon Jay, and Wellington Castillo to go with Jose Abreu and Yoan Moncada. The rotation is not good especially
without Michael Kopech, who is out with Tommy John surgery. Carlos Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez showed flashes, but haven't put it together yet. Their closer is Alex Colome, who isn't bad although Kelvin Herrera probably should close for them. The Detroit Tigers are a team that's in the midst of a rebuild. They have a trade bait guy with Nicholas Castellanos, an aging Miguel Cabrera, and two possible building blocks in Jeimer Candelario and Christin Stewart. Michael Fulmer might be getting Tommy John surgery and that takes away a valuable trade chip. Matt Boyd is slated as their ace now and they have the overpaid Jordan Zimmerman in their rotation too. Closer Shane Greene could be trade bait too with a good season. The Kansas City Royals might be the second worst team in the majors with a lengthy rebuild underway. Salvador Perez is out for the season with Tommy John surgery. Their offense will feature possible trade baits in Whit Merrifield and Billy Hamilton and youngsters in Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler, and Adalberto Mondesi. Their rotation features the likes of Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and youngsters Jakob Junis and Jorge Lopez. Their bullpen is below average and their closer is slated to be Brad Boxburger.

American League West
1. Houston Astros (98-64)
2. Oakland Athletics (83-79)
3. Los Angeles Angels (77-85)
4. Seattle Mariners (70-92)
5. Texas Rangers (67-95)

This is the Houston Astros division to lose until further notice. They are loaded offensively led by Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and George Springer. Their rotation will take a bit of a step back with the free agent losses of Charlie Morton and (probably) Dallas Keuchel and the loss of Lance McCullers Jr due to Tommy John Surgery. Josh James and Wade Miley aren't bad replacements for them, but Gerrit Cole (in a contract year) and Justin Verlander should be pitching at a high level although Verlander is aging. Their bullpen is solid with Roberto Osuna closing games and guys like Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Ryan Pressly, and Joe Smith in the pen too. The Oakland Athletics made the playoffs a year ago, but I see a step back. Their offense will mash with the likes of Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and Stephen Piscotty. Their rotation will miss Sean Manea, who's recovering from Tommy John. Veterans Mike Fiers and Brett Anderson are in this rotation. The bullpen is very good led by closer Blake Trienen, Fernando Rodney, and Joakim Soria. The Los Angeles Angels could surprise folks this season if things broke their way. Mike Trout is paid now and
he's still the best player in the game. The offense also has solid guys with reigning AL Rookie of the Year Shohei Ohtani (who will only hit this year), Justin Upton and Andrelton Simmons. The rotation is not very good as a whole with the likes of Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, and Matt Harvey. Their closer is slated to be ex-Indian Cody Allen, but not much else in the pen. The Seattle Mariners are a team that's close to enduring a rebuild. Mitch Haniger is now their best player and their offense also features veterans Kyle Seager, Jay Bruce, and Edwin Encarnacion. Their rotation features Marco Gonzales, Mike Leake, an aging Felix Hernandez, and rookie Yusei Kikucki. Their closer is Hunter Strickland and the bullpen doesn't have much beyond him. The Texas Rangers are a team that's in a rebuild, but really hasn't embraced it. The offense isn't bad and it features Joey Gallo, Nomar Maraza, Asdurbal Cabrera, Rougned Odor, and Shin-Soo Choo. The pitching needs serious work with both the rotation and the pen. The rotation features a ton of mediocre and below average guys with Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Edinson Volquez, and Drew Smyly. Their bullpen isn't good outside of closer Jose Leclerc.

National League East
1. Atlanta Braves (93-69)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (88-74)
3. Washington Nationals (86-76)
4. New York Mets (84-78)
5. Miami Marlins (64-102)

The Atlanta Braves won this division a season ago and they should be favorites to repeat here. Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman lead what could be a very good offense. Their rotation should be better with Mike Foltynewicz, Touki Toussant, and Sean Newcomb improving on last season with some prospects potentially coming up too. Their bullpen is the weak link, which they should improve at the deadline, but they do have a solid closer in Arodys Vizcaino. The Philadelphia Phillies will be vastly improved from a season ago. Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, and Jean Segura join Rhys Hoskins to form a vastly improved offense. Aaron Nola is an ace and Jake Arrieta is a solid veteran in that rotation too and there are young guys like Nick Piveta and Zach Elfin that could breakout. Their bullpen will be better with the addition of David Robertson to go with Seranthony Dominguez and both of those guys can close. The Washington Nationals are a team that
hopes to bounce back from a dismal season from a year ago. Bryce Harper is gone and the team is now being built around young studs Juan Soto and Victor Robles. Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon are also solid players too. Their rotation is their strength led by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strausburg, and Patrick Corbin. Their bullpen is not bad as it was in years past with closer Sean Doolittle and Trevor Rosenthal. The New York Mets look to improve after a disappointing season from a year ago. Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos, and Jed Lowrie join an offense featuring Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo. The rotation is the strength of their team led by reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zach Wheeler. Their bullpen is improved with the addition of Edwin Diaz and bringing back Jeurys Familia. The Miami Marlins are still rebuilding and are a lock to finish last in this division. Their offense has potential with guys like Peter O'Brien and Lewis Brinson who could break out. Their starting pitching isn't good, but Jose Urena has shown promise and rookie Sandy Alcantara could surprise people. Their bullpen isn't good either and closer Drew Steckenrider is trade bait.

National League Central
1. Chicago Cubs (95-67)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (92-70) (Wild Card #1)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) (Wild Card #2)
4. Cincinnati Reds (79-83)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91)

This division might be the best and deepest one in the league. The Chicago Cubs are my pick to win this division. Their offense will be very good led by Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez. Their rotation will be better with better performances from Jon Lester and Yu Darvish and a possible breakout of Jose Quintana. Their bullpen (despite Brandon Morrow missing the first few weeks recovering from shoulder surgery) will be better with the additions of Brad Brach, Xavier Cedeno, and Steve Cishek to go with Pedro Strop. The St. Louis Cardinals should break their three year playoff "drought" this season. Paul Goldschmidt joins a already good offense featuring Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, and Yadier Molina. Their rotation is their strength led by Carlos Martinez,
Miles Mikolas, Michael Wacha, and Adam Wainwright. The Milwaukee Brewers have a great chance to return to the postseason for the second straight season. Reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar, and Mike Moustakas lead the way on offense. Their rotation needs to improve though, although Brandon Woodruff, Zach Davies, and Jhoulys Chacin are solid and the return of Jimmy Nelson is a big wild card. Their bullpen is the teams strength led by Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, and Corey Knebel. The Cincinnati Reds are a team that will be vastly improved. Their offense is loaded with Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, and Yasiel Puig. Their rotation should be better with the additions of Alex Wood, Sonny Gray, and Tanner Rorak. Their bullpen isn't bad either led by closer Rasiel Iglesias. The Pittsburgh Pirates are the last place pick by default and are probably the best last place team in the league. The offense won't be bad led by Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, and Corey Dickerson. Their starting pitching will be solid with Jameson Taillon leading the way to go with Chris Archer, Trevor Williams, and Nick Kingham. Their bullpen has some good arms including closer Felipe Vasquez.

National League West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (97-65)
2. Colorado Rockies (85-77)
3. San Diego Padres (75-87)
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (69-93)
5. San Francisco Giants (65-97)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the team to beat in this division until proven otherwise. Their offense will be very good with Corey Seager returning from Tommy John surgery to go with Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Justin Turner. Their starting pitching is very good as a whole, despite Clayton Kershaw starting the season on the DL. Walker Buehler is now the team ace and this team also have other solid arms in Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Hyun-jin Ryu, and Julio Urias. Their bullpen will be better with the addition of Joe Kelly to go with closer Kenley Jansen, Pedro Baez, and Tony Cingrani. The Colorado Rockies are a team that I can see taking a slim step back. The newly paid Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon lead the way offensively. The rotation is improved with Kyle Freeland and German Marquez taking steps forward last season. Their bullpen is solid too led by closer Wade Davis, Sam Oberg, Antonio Senzatela, and Bryan Shaw. The San Diego Padres
will be improved with Manny Machado and prospect Fernando Tatis Jr joining Eric Hosmer, Luis Urias, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot, and Franmil Reyes to make a solid offense. The starting pitching could improve with some possible prospect call up's to go with Joey Luchessi and Eric Lauer. The Arizona Diamondbacks are about to go in to a big rebuild after trading away Paul Goldschmidt. David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Ketel Marte, and Steven Souza Jr are all still around on offense. Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray are still in their rotation and they got Luke Weaver in the Goldschmidt deal. Their bullpen isn't good outside of closer Archie Bradley. The San Francisco Giants are a franchise that needs to start a rebuild. Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and Evan Longoria lead the way on offense. Madison Bumgarner is in a contract year and is trade bait for sure. He leads their rotation which is not as good with Johnny Cueto out for the year recovering from Tommy John surgery and it features Jeff Samardzija, Derek Holland, and Dereck Rodriguez. Their bullpen is mediocre and Will Smith is their closer.

2019 MLB Playoffs
- AL Wild Card
(WC2) Tampa Bay Rays vs (WC1) Boston Red Sox: Blake Snell vs Chris Sale is a sexy pitching matchup that will get everyone excited, but the Sox are the champs and their offense led by Mookie Betts and JD Martinez will be the difference.
Pick: Red Sox

- NL Wild Card
(WC2) Milwaukee Brewers vs (WC1) St. Louis Cardinals: Should be a great game between these division rivals, but give me the Brewers led by Christian Yelich to move on and get a hard fought road win.
Pick: Brewers

League Division Series
(A-WC1) Boston Red Sox vs (A1) New York Yankees: Last years series between these two was a dud, but this one will be a classic. Home field will be a difference as well as the Yanks improved rotation and bullpen.
Pick: Yankees in five games.

(A3) Cleveland Indians vs (A2) Houston Astros: Last years series between these two was also a dud, but it should be more competitive. The difference here is the Astros core four of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and George Springer.
Pick: Astros in four games.

(N-WC2) Milwaukee Brewers vs (N1) Los Angeles Dodgers: NLCS rematch here in the Division Series. Two really good teams, but the Dodgers deeper rotation will be the difference here.
Pick: Dodgers in four games.

(N3) Atlanta Braves vs (N2) Chicago Cubs: This is a sneaky great series between these two contenders. The Cubs big three of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez and their starting pitching with more experience is the difference.
Pick: Cubs in five games.

League Championship Series
(A2) Houston Astros vs (A1) New York Yankees: The AL's best two teams face off here in the league championship series for a 2017 ALCS rematch. This time around I see the Yankees taking this one with a better rotation and bullpen again being the difference as well as a deeper lineup.
Pick: Yankees in six games.

(N2) Chicago Cubs vs (N1) Los Angeles Dodgers: Three times in four seasons these two hook up in the NLCS. This should be a competitive series, but the Dodgers are the better team with advantages in pitching and the deeper lineup.
Pick: Dodgers in six games.

World Series
(N1) Los Angeles Dodgers vs (A1) New York Yankees: This is the World Series that everybody wants. Both of these teams are built similar with deep lineups and starting rotations. The difference here is the Yanks pen, which is deeper than the Dodgers pen, although bullpens have been irrelevant for the last two World Series champions. This is the year that trend changes as the Yanks will hoist their twenty eighth Championship in franchise history.
Pick: Yankees in six games.

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